The ACD Method

Quote from kinggyppo:

"Never look for a narrative to get long or short. Look at price action. Price action was decent today all things considered. I think the monthly A down is a possible target but that is not much downside. Far more upside here for risk assets, particularly in oil.

If I were going to get short, it would be via a spread, not short SPY. One of the spreads I highlighted was the long SPY/XLF spread. There are countless others. Look for the edge king!"

this was the quote I was looking for the other day regarding spreads carry on. :)
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I was reading that post of yours King and thought, damn King, well said! Hahaha. Then I saw you were quoting me. :)
 
Mav,

Your spread charts are ''minute charts''?
how do you do that?

Bloomberg only allows me to do daily spread charts...that's if i'm doing it right.
 
Quote from amsterdam:

Mav,

Your spread charts are ''minute charts''?
how do you do that?

Bloomberg only allows me to do daily spread charts...that's if i'm doing it right.
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I use prophet charts. They offer minute charts. They are free on TOS.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I don't like to fade the number line although I'm sure there is a way to do it. Why buy weakness when you can buy strength and vice versa?

Also, I had a confirmed monthly A down on oil with a very neg number line. Once we made the weekly A up which was right near the monthly A down, I would leave the trade alone. Again, I think you and I are very different traders since you obviously are focused on one product. To me, I'm not "looking" for trades. I'm not trying to find a long or short everywhere. I want trades to fall in my lap. I want them to be easy. I want them to be smooth. I want to understand them. I'm sure one could day trade CL and make 100 trades a day. That's just not how I trade.

See MBF, here's the thing. I know you don't trade stock, but that BMY trade could have made you 10 times more money then CL with 1/10th the stress. It's a cleaner trade with almost zero noise. I look for those trades.

I've been trading for about 15 years. And I'll tell everyone this, if you want to stay in this game for the long term, you need to find a way to reduce the noise and lower the stress. Over time, the noise and stress become unbearable. Not when you are Johnny one lot and excited as hell to be swinging trades all over the place, but as you get older and you derive most of your income from trading, you are going to want to trade smoother moves and products to keep your sanity. Again, just my words of wisdom here. Not trying to tell anyone they are right or wrong in how they trade. I've been in this game for awhile and I saw 98% of the guys in my prop group blow out. I know this game. I know the rules. I see what happens. Just sharing my experience.
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Agree 100%. I am just waiting for you to settle down in your new endeavor and hopefully you will have time for what we talked about.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

Agree 100%. I am just waiting for you to settle down in your new endeavor and hopefully you will have time for what we talked about.
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The reason , I thought we did not had a confirmed monthly A down as price did not stay below monthly A down level for more than a day. I was assuming that there will be a time filter of a week to confirm monthly A downs.


By the way, I do not trade 100 trades a day. Probably 10 trades a day. There are only 2-5 set ups a day, the way i trade.
 
Some new adds to my radar:

KO, PM

KO making the monthly today, (on my levels) and the relative strength there is awesome.

Of the sectors I follow XLP is now better than XLV, (30 day number line is -2 versus -3 for the XLV)
 
Quote from Quon:

Some new adds to my radar:

KO, PM

KO making the monthly today, (on my levels) and the relative strength there is awesome.

Of the sectors I follow XLP is now better than XLV, (30 day number line is -2 versus -3 for the XLV)
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The tobacco sector has been on fire (MO, PM, RAI).
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I would warn guys about trading the products that give one the most "bang" for their buck. I have talked about this on here relentlessly about avoiding crowded trades. The heavier the traffic, the harder it is to trade because the noise level is unbearable. This includes stuff like the CL, the Euro, ES, AAPL, FAS and FAZ, etc. And certainly Gold.

I made a very very nice living trading listed stocks that no one on this thread has even heard of. Sitting there all by myself with the specialist catching smooth moves. Newbie traders will never make money trading noisy products no matter how much bang for the buck you are getting. And professionals know better.

Just my opinion of course. I'm often wrong.
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I have not traded GC, TF etc. But to some trading CL may look like crowded trade but the simple fact is CL offers more opportunities to trade intra day VS ES etc.. that's all that chart is showing. I would like to hear whats missing from that chart. It's not saying it's easier to trade. I do not know what easier trading is. It's just showing statistical facts. Lot of new traders want to trade /ES without knowing the risk vs other futures instrument.

So, if one wants to trade futures, at least trade instrument which has more opportunities. Mark fisher daily sheet gives $ risk amount for all the other instruments and CL always has lower risk compared to lot of other futures. He talked about in his book quite a bit.

Now, if one can not trade his/her way out of a paper bag, nothing will help, stocks, etf's , futures etc..

Again my comments are only regarding day trading.

By the way newbie trader, anyone less than 2 years experience is not supposed to make money. Linda Rashcke has seen only 1 in her career and Mark Fisher has very few per his NYMEX presentation. So lets give newbie traders a break. They get too hard on themselves (lol).
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

I have not traded GC, TF etc. But to some trading CL may look like crowded trade but the simple fact is CL offers more opportunities to trade intra day VS ES etc.. that's all that chart is showing. I would like to hear whats missing from that chart. It's not saying it's easier to trade. I do not know what easier trading is. It's just showing statistical facts. Lot of new traders want to trade /ES without knowing the risk vs other futures instrument.

So, if one wants to trade futures, at least trade instrument which has more opportunities. Mark fisher daily sheet gives $ risk amount for all the other instruments and CL always has lower risk compared to lot of other futures. He talked about in his book quite a bit.

Now, if one can not trade his/her way out of a paper bag, nothing will help, stocks, etf's , futures etc..

Again my comments are only regarding day trading.
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here is the $ @ risk amount for different instruments. Good to know RISK. I do not know how MF calculates it, I just know it makes sense. I hope traders stay away from Silver after seeing $ at risk amount. Plus based off tradeflight.com, chart silver is not a good day trading instrument for me vs CL.
 

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