As usual I covered too quickly, CL back at 98.20. 11.04 am. waiting to see what European close does to the 98 level
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
As usual I covered too quickly, CL back at 98.20. 11.04 am. waiting to see what European close does to the 98 level
Quote from mfbreakout:
Hi Maverick74,
You had weekly A down of 96.47, Monthly A down of 95.38 from Dec.14th. I know ,we had confirmed weekly A down. Monthly A down was breached, not sure if you had confirmed monthly A down?
Based off - 30 days number line you had, and with these longer time frame A downs, what do we make of price action of last 4 days?
Does it mean , we had failed monthly A down? What are new weekly's level. Monthly should be the same.
I think you do not day trade. How could have one used these weekly and monthly levels. I used them as potential support on the way to the down side.
Another way one could have used , when price broke above monthly level of 95.38 ( not sure where would i have placed the stop) to go long etc..
Just trying to complete the picture for day trading with weekly and monthly levels.
Thx
We have a confirmed weekly A up. The weekly levels are 92.36 and 95.58. All the various levels work together. You can't ignore a certain time frame level just because you don't trade on that time frame because it's all a part of the bigger picture price action.
Same with the number line. This is why I trade multiple products. To find the smoothest product I can. If you only trade one product, then you end up mixing up all these time frames and levels "looking" for trades that aren't really there.
Quote from Maverick74:
We have a confirmed weekly A up. The weekly levels are 92.36 and 95.58. All the various levels work together. You can't ignore a certain time frame level just because you don't trade on that time frame because it's all a part of the bigger picture price action.
Same with the number line. This is why I trade multiple products. To find the smoothest product I can. If you only trade one product, then you end up mixing up all these time frames and levels "looking" for trades that aren't really there.
very insightful
Copper very strong today. Holding above the weekly A up.
Quote from Maverick74:
We have a confirmed weekly A up. The weekly levels are 92.36 and 95.58. All the various levels work together. You can't ignore a certain time frame level just because you don't trade on that time frame because it's all a part of the bigger picture price action.
Same with the number line. This is why I trade multiple products. To find the smoothest product I can. If you only trade one product, then you end up mixing up all these time frames and levels "looking" for trades that aren't really there.
We are on the same page. Since, we did not had a confirmed monthly A down ( or per MF 30 days cumulative number was still positive at 6, came down from 12 during sell off over 3 days),
one should have been ready for up move once monthly A down level of 95.38 taken out?
Also, either i read some where or heard somewhere, when number line is way up there like +16 or more or down like -5 etc.. look for a trade in the other direction.
Your thoughts on that/
Thx
Quote from mfbreakout:
www.tradeflight.com. One can go to this site and look at which products gives a trader biggest BANG for his buck. I switched to CL a year ago after looking at the numbers.
Gold, Cl and Russell are the top three.
Disclaimer: Author of the study is a friend of mine and a MASTER trader.
I would warn guys about trading the products that give one the most "bang" for their buck. I have talked about this on here relentlessly about avoiding crowded trades. The heavier the traffic, the harder it is to trade because the noise level is unbearable. This includes stuff like the CL, the Euro, ES, AAPL, FAS and FAZ, etc. And certainly Gold.
I made a very very nice living trading listed stocks that no one on this thread has even heard of. Sitting there all by myself with the specialist catching smooth moves. Newbie traders will never make money trading noisy products no matter how much bang for the buck you are getting. And professionals know better.
Just my opinion of course. I'm often wrong.
Quote from mfbreakout:
We are on the same page. Since, we did not had a confirmed monthly A down ( or per MF 30 days cumulative number was still positive at 6, came down from 12 during sell off over 3 days),
one should have been ready for up move once monthly A down level of 95.38 taken out?
Also, either i read some where or heard somewhere, when number line is way up there like +16 or more or down like -5 etc.. look for a trade in the other direction.
Your thoughts on that/
Thx
I don't like to fade the number line although I'm sure there is a way to do it. Why buy weakness when you can buy strength and vice versa?
Also, I had a confirmed monthly A down on oil with a very neg number line. Once we made the weekly A up which was right near the monthly A down, I would leave the trade alone. Again, I think you and I are very different traders since you obviously are focused on one product. To me, I'm not "looking" for trades. I'm not trying to find a long or short everywhere. I want trades to fall in my lap. I want them to be easy. I want them to be smooth. I want to understand them. I'm sure one could day trade CL and make 100 trades a day. That's just not how I trade.
See MBF, here's the thing. I know you don't trade stock, but that BMY trade could have made you 10 times more money then CL with 1/10th the stress. It's a cleaner trade with almost zero noise. I look for those trades.
I've been trading for about 15 years. And I'll tell everyone this, if you want to stay in this game for the long term, you need to find a way to reduce the noise and lower the stress. Over time, the noise and stress become unbearable. Not when you are Johnny one lot and excited as hell to be swinging trades all over the place, but as you get older and you derive most of your income from trading, you are going to want to trade smoother moves and products to keep your sanity. Again, just my words of wisdom here. Not trying to tell anyone they are right or wrong in how they trade. I've been in this game for awhile and I saw 98% of the guys in my prop group blow out. I know this game. I know the rules. I see what happens. Just sharing my experience.
Quote from Maverick74:
I don't like to fade the number line although I'm sure there is a way to do it. Why buy weakness when you can buy strength and vice versa?
Also, I had a confirmed monthly A down on oil with a very neg number line. Once we made the weekly A up which was right near the monthly A down, I would leave the trade alone. Again, I think you and I are very different traders since you obviously are focused on one product. To me, I'm not "looking" for trades. I'm not trying to find a long or short everywhere. I want trades to fall in my lap. I want them to be easy. I want them to be smooth. I want to understand them. I'm sure one could day trade CL and make 100 trades a day. That's just not how I trade.
See MBF, here's the thing. I know you don't trade stock, but that BMY trade could have made you 10 times more money then CL with 1/10th the stress. It's a cleaner trade with almost zero noise. I look for those trades.
I've been trading for about 15 years. And I'll tell everyone this, if you want to stay in this game for the long term, you need to find a way to reduce the noise and lower the stress. Over time, the noise and stress become unbearable. Not when you are Johnny one lot and excited as hell to be swinging trades all over the place, but as you get older and you derive most of your income from trading, you are going to want to trade smoother moves and products to keep your sanity. Again, just my words of wisdom here. Not trying to tell anyone they are right or wrong in how they trade. I've been in this game for awhile and I saw 98% of the guys in my prop group blow out. I know this game. I know the rules. I see what happens. Just sharing my experience.
Words of wisdom...and with 15 years you are one of the survivors. I haven't met many traders who consistently stay in this game for that period of time! That alone means something, getting in the game and staying there .
BTW you say you are "often wrong"...i'd beg to differ. LOL