Quote from gmst:
Hello Everyone,
I discovered this thread 4 days back and have been reading it daily since. This seems like a very fine thread to me. I don't know anything about the ACD method, but some of the other ideas I read about like looking at spreads (XLF-SPY) sound very interesting.
Let me start with my first contribution to this thread. For trading today's NFP, a hedged trade would be to buy 100,000 usdjpy and sell 1 ES contract. Current prices: USDJPY 78.00, ES 1157.
Case 1: If NFP comes out way better than expected, USDJPY will spike 70-120 pips and ES will spike 15-25 points. Book USDJPY profits and leave ES short open. In a day or two once we get some bad news from Europe ES will be back at 1157 or even lower. There is also a strong possibility that ES might sell off today itself after the initial euphoria of good payrolls number is behind us in half an hour or at open. Because a lot of good news (good ADP numbers, swap cut etc.) is already being reflected in ES.
Case 2: If NFP comes bad, USDJPY and ES go down, make money on ES and leave USDJPY position. You might have to hold this USDJPY position for 3-6 days. BoJ has been buying USDJPY and has been doing continuous market intervention in smaller volume since the last big one. So, in next 3-6 days, USDJPY will be back at 78 and then trade can be exited.