The ACD Method

Quote from DerSlutharsch:

Hi all,

I have difficulties figuring out what to use for the Monthly OR, what do you use? The first day of the month or the first Monday of the month?

The first day of the month look like the "natural" way to do it, but given months have variable days and they don't align with a whole week I'm concerned about the consistency of the levels obtained this way. Any hints?

P.D. I tried searching in the forum but the results are crap, this thread is full of jewels but is bloody difficult to find them. Btw, I also post today's SPY levels.
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I had posted fairly recently that spy closed at 122.00 on 11/01. today spy closed at 122.11, bullish by 11 cents as 122 is my line in the sand. 122 is the 50% fib retrace of the highest high and lowest low of our longer frame. just draw fibs from the high and low of the monthly chart back to the 2008 peak. I have never seen a drop like that. I was really surprised we stayed over 130 as long as we did. I would keep a close eye on 122. I think you have to use whatever makes sense to you. Dec 1 is on a thursday...:p
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

I had posted fairly recently that spy closed at 122.00 on 11/01. today spy closed at 122.11, bullish by 11 cents as 122 is my line in the sand. 122 is the 50% fib retrace of the highest high and lowest low of our longer frame. just draw fibs from the high and low of the monthly chart back to the 2008 peak. I have never seen a drop like that. I was really surprised we stayed over 130 as long as we did. I would keep a close eye on 122. I think you have to use whatever makes sense to you. Dec 1 is on a thursday...:p
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You mentioned that level a few weeks ago...where did we close today? On the dot my man!
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

I had posted fairly recently that spy closed at 122.00 on 11/01. today spy closed at 122.11, bullish by 11 cents as 122 is my line in the sand. 122 is the 50% fib retrace of the highest high and lowest low of our longer frame. just draw fibs from the high and low of the monthly chart back to the 2008 peak. I have never seen a drop like that. I was really surprised we stayed over 130 as long as we did. I would keep a close eye on 122. I think you have to use whatever makes sense to you. Dec 1 is on a thursday...:p
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Buy the SPY Dec 122 straddle in size!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)
 
Quote from Maverick74:

If the VIX hits 40, I'm loading up the boat on XIV. I might use some of Shan's money too. :)
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Count me in...now are we talking some size here?
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Yes, I will average down all the way to zero. :)
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lol...that's what I'm talking about it! If your in some pain, just say "hit me again"
 
here is a chart with spy gld and eurusd year to date. Mav made a statement about "relative value" very important concept, forex pairs are by definition relative value. It would be helpful to explore this. I find pure forex trading one or many pairs difficult in terms of following all the news. To me its like trying to follow spx in 10 different countries. Art Murphy wrote a book called intermarket analysis which is pretty dated but gets into how things are correlated like gold/dollar/oil this is a whole sub field would love to see a seminar by Fisher or someone of his ilk on this. So far gold is winning the horse race this year.
 

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Quote from Shanb:

You mentioned that level a few weeks ago...where did we close today? On the dot my man!
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here is an idea for you take a product you like lets say aapl, put a gtc limit order in at some absurd number. Lets say 375, all of a sudden you are filled. The reason I mention this is I got filled on a small order I had forgotten I put in. I never thought the market would hit that price. Anyway, you are young so hopefully you will remember you have it in. Point is you can get a great fill sometimes by throwing a crazy order in. :)
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

I had posted fairly recently that spy closed at 122.00 on 11/01. today spy closed at 122.11, bullish by 11 cents as 122 is my line in the sand. 122 is the 50% fib retrace of the highest high and lowest low of our longer frame. just draw fibs from the high and low of the monthly chart back to the 2008 peak. I have never seen a drop like that. I was really surprised we stayed over 130 as long as we did. I would keep a close eye on 122. I think you have to use whatever makes sense to you. Dec 1 is on a thursday...:p
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Thanks kinggyppo, you're right, I'll have to find what makes sense to me but was worried about using monthly ranges that don't match with weekly ones resulting in conflicting "signals", and although you've been saying that there are not right levels throughout the whole thread I was afraid that could be one of those "nuances" that you must pay attention to.

By the way, what do you think about the "plus-day" and "minus-day" concept in Fisher's book? Is it one the indicators you pay attention to? Is it really worth including it in my code?
 
AUD/USD continues to hold par. Monthly not confirmed. This pair and AAPL are my tells to see if we are putting in a swing low here in risk assets. The AAPL weekly and the Aussie monthly.
 
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