I use a pretty long period, at least a year. The reason is that I have graphed them and they are very consistent over long periods. They don't trend nearly as much as range. That is a good thing because if you factor it in to product selection it improves r:r.
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Also I've tested for correlation between shorter term averages and prior day small move, that sort of thing. I didn't find any relationship. So I'm just using the long term distribution. It is nice because you only periodically have to calculate them.
Quote from baggerlord:
Also I've tested for correlation between shorter term averages and prior day small move, that sort of thing. I didn't find any relationship. So I'm just using the long term distribution. It is nice because you only periodically have to calculate them.
Well...If you've tested and found that prior month's or day's range has a positive correlation with the current periods range. It would be consistent to use a shorter period for your averages...btw I have found a correlation in the above scenario!
Sorry didn't explain, I calculate my levels off the small move, which stays pretty consistent.
Edit: there is a very slight correlation between 10 day atr and small moves, so small i decided to ignore it. I believe it was .1 or so.
Edit: there is a very slight correlation between 10 day atr and small moves, so small i decided to ignore it. I believe it was .1 or so.
Quote from Shanb:
Man..Oil 101 print!! this thing is a monster!
edit: looks like we will get 102 here soon
It should not surprise the readers of this thread. The strength in CL was shown in the number line and as being the only risk asset that confirmed on the monthly. This is what ACD does, it gives you the lens to find the right products.
Quote from Maverick74:
It should not surprise the readers of this thread. The strength in CL was shown in the number line and as being the only risk asset that confirmed on the monthly. This is what ACD does, it gives you the lens to find the right products.
Yep, but I was surprised to see it this far, this fast. Especially with the ES opening down 1%! Good call bud
As I've said before, anyone who wants to be long risk assets should be long CL, not ES or stocks. The monthly A up in CL was 97 and the weekly 100. Do NOT fight this trend. If equities hold this morning and start to lift, we'll print 105 today in CL. Possibly print 110 into Friday. When this thing takes off, nothing will stop it.
Let me further point out that WTI/Brent is getting absolutely and totally annihilated right now. Major major damage in that spread. Guys are getting blown out big time. Watch that spread!!!!!
Watch that weekly in AAPL today. That will be your tell for equities. The weekly A up is 390.25. We need to CONFIRM, not just trade above it.