The ACD Method

[Maverick74]

Weekly A down in the ES is 1236.

Weekly A up in Bonds is 142'23.

 

[Maverick74]

Weekly A down in the Euro (6e) is 1.3528.

 

[Maverick74]

Intra-day A down in ES is 1245.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Quon:

Let me preface by saying I really respect Apple Inc, the company, and their ecosystem is second to none.

Woz is supposed to be on the Halftime Report. I think for the first time in a while we have a confidence issue in AAPL. Some noted longs are selling, or have sold already. I'm a tech nut, and I've been buying Samsung products for a few years now. I wasn't surprised to see that they overtook AAPL in cell phones recently.

I think the main issue AAPL has here is their market. We forget, but the average Joe can't really afford their products, so AAPL's market is the top earners in the country, and they can poach a certain percentage of the middle class as well. Once that percentage of the middle is poached, they're no longer buyers. This percentage I'm talking about isn't upgrading their hardware every 6 months the way the top earners are. So you have a new iPad every few months, but that percentage of the middle bought version 1, and isn't planning a new purchase now, (or maybe ever).

Just my two cents worth as an IT professional.

I think the fact that Steve Jobs is gone is a big problem this is like trying to replace Warren Buffet. I didn't want to bring it up but this is the real test, how will aapl really perform now that Mr Jobs is on his next mission.

 

[Redneck]

Quote from Maverick74:

Right but you can risk 5 cents to make 20 cents!

I love those trades

RN

 

[kinggyppo]

Quon this quote is for you; this a billion dollar quote especially pertaining to computers and business in general:

"People don’t know what they want until you show it to them."

Steve Jobs

 

[Maverick74]

VMW hanging in strong. Still above the intra-day A up and the monthly A up on heavy volume. If this market holds here, VMW will make new highs today.

 

[Quon]

Quote from kinggyppo:

Quon this quote is for you; this a billion dollar quote especially pertaining to computers and business in general:

"People don�t know what they want until you show it to them."

Steve Jobs

Absolutely agree. Most folks don't even know that Sun Micro was in the cloud before "cloud" was a term. I think you need the exposure that the marketing folks at Apple can give to an idea before the public adopts.

My one and only comment is simply that I worry that Apple may have overestimated the low-end of its consumer base, and while I have no doubt that they will continue to be one of the dominant players in computing, I'm simply commenting that a lower-end segment of their market likely doesn't keep up with the refresh cycle of new hardware every so many months.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Quon:

Absolutely agree. Most folks don't even know that Sun Micro was in the cloud before "cloud" was a term. I think you need the exposure that the marketing folks at Apple can give to an idea before the public adopts.

My one and only comment is simply that I worry that Apple may have overestimated the low-end of its consumer base, and while I have no doubt that they will continue to be one of the dominant players in computing, I'm simply commenting that a lower-end segment of their market likely doesn't keep up with the refresh cycle of new hardware every so many months.

I'm not so sure. What I've noticed is that the upper end of the market buys the new upgrade cycle and the low end of the market picks up the older models for almost nothing.

Another thing I'll add is that almost all US tech companies are basing their growth on oversees growth, not US growth which is non existent. I know Android is bigger in China, but AAPL has not even cracked the 1.3 billion people market in China. Even if AAPL only reaches 10% of that market, that is 130 million i-phones that could be sold or over 100 million i-pads.

The bottom line is, China changes everything. All forward looking models must account for explosive growth in China.

Now, having said all this, AAPL's current stock price certainly has a lot of that priced in. I'm just saying, I would not base any conclusions based on the US consumer which I think has been dead for a long time now.

 

[Quon]

Quote from Maverick74:

I'm just saying, I would not base any conclusions based on the US consumer which I think has been dead for a long time now.

Completely agree. I don't think any of us disagree ultimately. Just trying to look at all the various angles. That's why I love this thread, ultimately all that matters is price!