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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Everyone seems to be on vacation but me. It's like a ghost town around here. LOL.
I'm attaching my monthly FX montage to take a look at all these yen pairs that bounced off their monthly A downs.
You'll notice EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY all bounced. As well as EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD.
Why am I talking about this. Because FX flows drive risk. Even if you only trade stocks or oil, you should be watching FX flows. They are outstanding tells. The fact that all the risk currencies held their monthly A levels at least for now, shows we might be able to push risk assets higher from here. But, if they all break down, then you want to abandon very quickly any buy the dip mentality.
I'm attaching my monthly FX montage to take a look at all these yen pairs that bounced off their monthly A downs.
You'll notice EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY all bounced. As well as EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD.
Why am I talking about this. Because FX flows drive risk. Even if you only trade stocks or oil, you should be watching FX flows. They are outstanding tells. The fact that all the risk currencies held their monthly A levels at least for now, shows we might be able to push risk assets higher from here. But, if they all break down, then you want to abandon very quickly any buy the dip mentality.
Attachments
Since some of you guys had positions in the Aussie here is a chart of the A up it made overnight on the London session. You'll see that overnight low at par which was the monthly A down it bounced off. It's nice to see a pair make an A up off the monthly bounce.
Attachments
Quote from Maverick74:
Everyone seems to be on vacation but me. It's like a ghost town around here. LOL.
I'm attaching my monthly FX montage to take a look at all these yen pairs that bounced off their monthly A downs.
You'll notice EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY all bounced. As well as EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD.
Why am I talking about this. Because FX flows drive risk. Even if you only trade stocks or oil, you should be watching FX flows. They are outstanding tells. The fact that all the risk currencies held their monthly A levels at least for now, shows we might be able to push risk assets higher from here. But, if they all break down, then you want to abandon very quickly any buy the dip mentality.
I closed 2 shorts today, AUD/USD and EUR/JPY. The jpy trade was a non ACD trade I initiated during that big news release last week. I closed it partially based on your comments but mostly based on the stats I have been analyzing.
On AUD/USD it is interesting to me that your A level corresponds pretty closely with my profit zone, which is where most bigger monthly moves ares distributed. I entered right at the beginning of the month after it broke down past the point that indicates it will probably end up being a big move distribution.
And feel free to keep commenting on how markets are related. It is something I have never really understood very well. On that note do you know of any good resources related to that topic?
Quote from baggerlord:
And feel free to keep commenting on how markets are related. It is something I have never really understood very well. On that note do you know of any good resources related to that topic?
The best resource I know is right here! The one stop shop for all things trading.
Quote from Maverick74:
Nat Gas nice bounce off the monthly A down. Upside target now is 4.07, the monthly A up.
Let me follow up on this bad boy. We failed at the intra-day A up today and we are right back at the monthly A down with a -3 on the numberline. When you get a bounce off a monthly level you do NOT want price to re-visit the lows. So scratch this trade idea.
Quote from Maverick74:
I think oil has some other drivers right now which makes it such a great long. The oil/copper spread is very smooth. I don't think oil is driving the ES higher. I think the currencies are providing more support for the market right now then oil as well as the selloff in bonds. If oil goes through 100 it will probably be a negative driver for the ES, not positive. It's all about looking at relationships. The entire market is one big relative value bet. You just need to find that "value".
Yea I was thinking about it from a purely intraday standpoint, daytrading has me focusing on the noise sometimes lol. This move in Oil off of the lows has been really strong. Can't help but think we get some type of a pullback soon, but nice call on this thing in the past month or so.
Quote from Shanb:
Yea I was thinking about it from a purely intraday standpoint, daytrading has me focusing on the noise sometimes lol. This move in Oil off of the lows has been really strong. Can't help but think we get some type of a pullback soon, but nice call on this thing in the past month or so.
I think that 100 level is going to be a big magnet. If ES can rally back to 1275 or 1280, that should lift oil through 100 and once that happens, this thing could launch and re-test the 115 highs pretty quick. I think next year oil could push 150 plus.
Things are heating up in Iran right now as well. If Israel takes any kind of action and fires on Iran, you are going to see a 20 pt move in this thing fast. Granted that's a 10 delta probably, but you need to be aware of the possible catalysts.