The ACD Method

[baggerlord]

Quote from pwrtrdr:




shoudl be more like this- A up dont work in Oil right now 86 percent of the time here is why..... but no no, lets pretend to be traders and talk jibberish..... "feelings"

Well we will disagree on the other stuff so lets talk about this. ACD levels are really a range or zone if you look at the stats. It is the area where generally speaking price movement will fail and mean reversion traders can make a profitable trade.

When it moves past the A level area, and continues to move on strength, that is an outlier event. (Not a ridiculous outlier Fooled by Randomness style, but more of a 5% outlier.) That is why you have to look at the tape, price action, or whatever else to see if you think it will succesfuly travel beyond the A level. If it does you will catch the mean reversion crowd with their pants down and get a nice move. But that is not the odds on favorite outcome.

So when you say that A levels aren't "working" that is incorrect. They are actually doing what they statistically should and trader skill needs to be applied to judge what is happening in that zone.

 

[Shanb]

Quote from pwrtrdr:

I understand..... just making MY point. I dont think he has

In fact, he said he TRIED to teach his futures traders how to do ACD and it dint work because of Nuance

Then today NT posters were anomored at his teaching prowness and thanking profusely ......... like I said nonsense


sorry, to report.... but thats what is going on


shoudl be more like this- A up dont work in Oil right now 86 percent of the time here is why..... but no no, lets pretend to be traders and talk jibberish..... "feelings"

You have to put in the work on your own and find that out for yourself. John's not going to throw all of his bones to you! That's asking for too much. If you don't figure it out for yourself through some hard work it won't mean much anyways.

It's simple...go back to the last few months of CL intraday data. Plot you A and C values, breakout a spreadsheet, include any variables that you think may have an effect on the trade, plug and chug! Sooner or later you will find some stuff that has a meaningful effect on the trade. This is a very time consuming and not the most efficient way to do it, but for me this allows one to work with their tools and really get a feel for how things work.

I have definitely seen that OR size has an effect. In fact it is very pronounced, and fading the moves that come off of small OR's is very dangerous . The location of the pivot is also very important. Market conditions are very important. There are going to be periods where breakouts work and don't work.etc.

 

[pwrtrdr]

Quote from baggerlord:

Well we will disagree on the other stuff so lets talk about this. ACD levels are really a range or zone if you look at the stats. It is the area where generally speaking price movement will fail and mean reversion traders can make a profitable trade.

When it moves past the A level area, and continues to move on strength, that is an outlier event. (Not a ridiculous outlier Fooled by Randomness style, but more of a 5% outlier.) That is why you have to look at the tape, price action, or whatever else to see if you think it will succesfuly travel beyond the A level. If it does you will catch the mean reversion crowd with their pants down and get a nice move. But that is not the odds on favorite outcome.

So when you say that A levels aren't "working" that is incorrect. They are actually doing what they statistically should and trader skill needs to be applied to judge what is happening in that zone.

Excellent, I agree and points understood.

Question ( what got me ranting) most people are attracted to the ES for example, is that a good instrument to measure or , if so exactly how to measure or how t odefine to take the mean reversion or the outler 5 percent move..... tape reading ? O ktape reading, a basket of stocks ? Filters ?


First thing a trader needs to do is find the right instrument at the right time..... I am not even there yet, I trade Nat Gas, its not happening there for sure..

 

[pwrtrdr]

Quote from Shanb:

You have to put in the work on your own and find that out for yourself. John's not going to throw all of his bones to you! That's asking for too much. If you don't figure it out for yourself through some hard work it won't mean much anyways.

It's simple...go back to the last few months of CL intraday data. Plot you A and C values, breakout a spreadsheet, include any variables that you think may have an effect on the trade, plug and chug! Sooner or later you will find some stuff that has a meaningful effect on the trade. This is a very time consuming and not the most efficient way to do it, but for me this allows one to work with their tools and really get a feel for how things work.

I have definitely seen that OR size has an effect. In fact it is very pronounced, and fading the moves that come off of small OR's is very dangerous . The location of the pivot is also very important. Market conditions are very important. There are going to be periods where breakouts work and don't work.etc.

agree thnx

 

[Lornz]

Quote from pwrtrdr:

I understand..... just making MY point. I dont think he has

In fact, he said he TRIED to teach his futures traders how to do ACD and it dint work because of Nuance

Then today NT posters were anomored at his teaching prowness and thanking profusely ......... like I said nonsense


sorry, to report.... but thats what is going on


shoudl be more like this- A up dont work in Oil right now 86 percent of the time here is why..... but no no, lets pretend to be traders and talk jibberish..... "feelings"

You act as if others owe you something?

Why on earth would someone wish to share such specifics on public message board, and, more importantly, why don't you do the work yourself?

I don't use Fisher's ACD, but I know that it works. If you can't devise a profitable approach by reading this thread, you are probably not cut out for trading.

It's people like you that deters people from sharing worthwhile information.

 

[Shanb]

Quote from baggerlord:

Well we will disagree on the other stuff so lets talk about this. ACD levels are really a range or zone if you look at the stats. It is the area where generally speaking price movement will fail and mean reversion traders can make a profitable trade.

When it moves past the A level area, and continues to move on strength, that is an outlier event. (Not a ridiculous outlier Fooled by Randomness style, but more of a 5% outlier.) That is why you have to look at the tape, price action, or whatever else to see if you think it will succesfuly travel beyond the A level. If it does you will catch the mean reversion crowd with their pants down and get a nice move. But that is not the odds on favorite outcome.

So when you say that A levels aren't "working" that is incorrect. They are actually doing what they statistically should and trader skill needs to be applied to judge what is happening in that zone.

What do you think about the OR aspect to ACD? Fisher said time is more important than price...I agree or at least just as important. Time is the real regulator of the market and time is needed for a move to build. Gann understood this and supposedly made a killing in the markets, Fisher just applied a objective approach to using it!

Time is very important to intraday traders IMO. That is why I think going for singles and doubles is what a daytrader should do...and not try to swing for homeruns all the time. The inherent limitation that time places on the intraday timeframe makes it hard for the homerun moves to happen on such a short timeframe. Trend trading on a multi-day basis provides alot more flexibility. You don't have such a small time constraint and can put on positions without that limitation!

Enough rambling, I just think the OR aspect is the most important thing that Fisher has discovered. I wouldn't just ignore it, maybe find a way to incorporate it?

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from pwrtrdr:

I understand..... just making MY point. I dont think he has

In fact, he said he TRIED to teach his futures traders how to do ACD and it dint work because of Nuance

Then today NT posters were anomored at his teaching prowness and thanking profusely ......... like I said nonsense


sorry, to report.... but thats what is going on


shoudl be more like this- A up dont work in Oil right now 86 percent of the time here is why..... but no no, lets pretend to be traders and talk jibberish..... "feelings"

This is absolutely absurd. For starters, I did send a complaint about you to the moderators. Just in case your posts get removed, I'll man up and tell you it was me that complained.

I'll address a few of your points here. At risk of "further stroking my ego", there is over 200 pages of content here. Two hundred pages! Most of that is filled with some outstanding quality content not only by myself, but almost all the contributors to this thread. This is a miracle on ET.

Second, yes I did teach the ACD method to guys in my prop office. I spent some time talking about why that failed. For the most part, it came down to psychology, the very subject matter you objected to earlier. The fact of that matter is, all of my guys learned ACD about as well as they could, but they just didn't have the emotional IQ to trade. We spent hours in my office going over the psychology of the markets. At the end of the day, most of them did not put in the effort. As the saying goes, "you can lead a horse to the creek, but you cannot make him drink the water."

Third, I'm not "selling" anything here. I don't work for ET and I have no responsibilities to contribute to this thread. I do it because I enjoy it.

Fourth, I'm going to ask you kindly to leave this thread. You don't have to and I can't make you. I'm only asking you because in the time that you have been on this thread you have contributed absolutely nothing and all you have done is question everything. You seem to demand answers and absolute truth, none of which are available here. So it seems like perhaps there is a better place on ET for you to spend your time.

If you verbally attack me or anyone on this thread, I will hit the complain button. Something I have never had to do during my 10 years on ET. But I will do it to keep this thread clean. I was joking earlier that trolls for the most part have not joined this thread and I knew that would have to change sooner or later. But I am going to do my best to stay on topic.

I assure you pwrtrder, whatever you are looking for, it's not on this thread. So please seek it elsewhere. To stroke my ego for the last time, I should be awarded a medal for how I have responded to you here, as RCG has noted, if I ran into you down in the basement, I would have treated you a bit more "aggressively".

 

[baggerlord]

Quote from Shanb:

What do you think about the OR aspect to ACD? Fisher said time is more important than price...I agree or at least just as important. Time is the real regulator of the market and time is needed for a move to build. Gann understood this and supposedly made a killing in the markets, Fisher just applied a objective approach to using it!

Time is very important to intraday traders IMO. That is why I think going for singles and doubles is what a daytrader should do...and not try to swing for homeruns all the time. The inherent limitation that time places on the intraday timeframe makes it hard for the homerun moves to happen on such a short timeframe. Trend trading on a multi-day basis provides alot more flexibility. You don't have such a small time constraint and can put on positions without that limitation!

Enough rambling, I just think the OR aspect is the most important thing that Fisher has discovered. I wouldn't just ignore it, maybe find a way to incorporate it?

OK open range is next on my to do list to analyze. I think I will test 1, 2, 3, 5, 15, 20, and 30 minute open ranges for signifgance. The time consuming part will to be to figure out how to manipulate the data and everything else will be fast so I might as well test all of those.

What would you like them tested against? I'm thinking the days range, and big and small move size. Any other ideas?

 

[baggerlord]

Oh and I figure I will just keep testing the SPY. Any objections to that?

 

[pwrtrdr]

Quote from Lornz:

You act as if others owe you something?

Why on earth would someone wish to share such specifics on public message board, and, more importantly, why don't you do the work yourself?

I don't use Fisher's ACD, but I know that it works. If you can't devise a profitable approach by reading this thread, you are probably not cut out for trading.

It's people like you that deters people from sharing worthwhile information.

Not so, I said that I had a profitable method for a very specific instrument.

Nobody owes anyone anything..... I understand

Snooty remarks "if you cant devise a profitable......." says everything about you