The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

Look at that Euro go today. What a move. Shorts getting annihilated.
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There is going to be some MAJOR pain for some global macro commodity funds this month with the Euro. Serious damage being done.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

OK, I'll throw out a bone here. For stocks, the best way to look for good confirmed A ups and A downs is to look for narrow open ranges. You want to program this into a ratio. Take the OR into say a 30 day ATR. Then run the scans during the day to find the tightest ratios, for example all stocks under 20%. From this list, you look for confirmed A ups and A downs. Combine that with stocks with narrow pivots or narrowing pivots, and you will find your breakouts.

To further add to this, you can do the same process with stocks using a 30 min OR and look for late morning breakouts which actually tend to have more follow through then the early morning breakouts or breakdowns.

The problem with the failed A trades is noise. There just are too many of them and you will never find the best ones nor will you have any ability to filter for the nice ones. They will all be random. The breakout trades can be isolated. For example, you can get very very narrow by lowering the OR/ATR ratio to 15% or 12% to really fine tune the breakouts. You can't do this with fade trades. Simply looking for stocks with wide OR is meaningless because some will provide great fades and some will not. That's like saying the market might go up today or might go down. This will become very frustrating over time the sheer randomness of it.

Anyway, just a thought...
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This is awesome advice Maverick. I am going to look into this.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

There is going to be some MAJOR pain for some global macro commodity funds this month with the Euro. Serious damage being done.
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Was short and (had sold puts) where I wan to cover not getting "serious damage" calls..... was a little "wrong" about it...... next...

collecting puts and will be looking to buy calls at some point, but .03 cents isnt anything outside of expectations ? Unless day trading....
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Yeah I've seen 3% moves all over the place, but I was pointing out this pair to you because it is the cleanest breakdown of the dollar I see across all the pairs right now. This thing ran up from 1.38 to 1.90 in less then a year. I think it could easily hit 1.50 again. But you missed the monthly A down at 1.82 so I would look for a failed weekly A up next week or perhaps a failed monthly A up in Nov to get in. This thing could drop 2000 to 3000 pips. I don't see the AUD/USD rallying to 1.35 or 1.40 in the same time frame. This monthly alone the pair has dropped almost 15%. This might just be the opening act.
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:eek:

:D :D :D :D :D
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Look at that Euro go today. What a move. Shorts getting annihilated.
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Dollar broke bad against all currencies today. 200+ pip move in the AUM. Did the Bernank say something?
 
Quote from RCG Trader:

Dollar broke bad against all currencies today. 200+ pip move in the AUM. Did the Bernank say something?
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The Euro countries got together and cut some sort of deal over Greece.
 
Quote from drm7:

The Euro countries got together and cut some sort of deal over Greece.
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This is what I love about this thread. There are 100 threads of guys handicapping all the news out of Europe and basically shorting risk assets blindfolded and the people over here are looking around and asking "was there news today"? LOL. True technical traders over here. :D :D :D
 
Morgan Stanley up 19%, they were supposedly heavily exposed to Europe, some folks over there breathing a sigh of relief, there is a funky inverse head and shoulders on the daily that that may take it to 24.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

This is what I love about this thread. There are 100 threads of guys handicapping all the news out of Europe and basically shorting risk assets blindfolded and the people over here are looking around and asking "was there news today"? LOL. True technical traders over here. :D :D :D
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Kinda figured something might be up. Pivot range the day before the move was 5 pips wide. Very very narrow. And, I was able to take position early in the day, which was also unusual. So much so that I took the position, then shut my platform down. I had a mobile alert sent to my cellphone in case I was wrong, but even then I felt that a C down would ease whatever pain I might have taken.

Two days to go in the week, I am sure today will be a bad A and then a bad C.:D
 
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