The ACD Method

Quote from Shanb:

Crazy that Fisher uses some of this stuff. I guess its based off of some Gann time cycles? I know a guy that uses some of that stuff...never thought any of the big boys looked at it.
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A lot of it is Gann stuff. I don't know if Fish is aware or even cares about that.

But ACD has allowed me to deploy my knowledge about Gann better than I ever have, and it is working well. The thing is about reference points. So without getting away from ACD the A B C and D all provide reference points. Aside from that, if the trend is down, based on his triple MA's, don't take that A up. If an A up fails, and the trend is with you, you don't need to wait for the A down, take the failed A up. It is all about reference points.

As far as risk goes, manage your risk according to your disaster stop. Point B and D. Now you should stop out well before that on time or the MAs becoming confused. But on the rare occasion that you take a trade on a black swan bar, then when your disaster stop gets hit, you don't lose more than X percentage of your account. ACD sets up a no lose situation, meaning a no blowup situation. Again that is if you already have a way to generate signals.
 
RCG, based on MF webinars and his insistence on KISS approach, I doubt it that he spend much time on Gann approach to trading.


Maybe , Elliott Wave since his best buddy Paul Tudor Jones recommends all traders working for him to read book by Robert Pretchter.

I been playing around MF concept of using his pivot MA's to get state of the market. I have not found it to be much of help so far for day trading. Here and there one does get a set up when pivot MA , pivot tracker, 30 days numbers line all line up and BOOM.

For your trading, which time frame trading crude oil you has found to be effective for day trading , 5 minutes , 30 minutes etc.. when using pivot MA and other ACD tools.

Does any one uses MF first of the month and First of the year concept and if one does, how in terms of setting up reference points for day and swing trading?

30 days cycle, as MF explained during NYMEX webinar, trading instruments tend to repeat price pattern , any one has tested it?
For crude, it seems to work more often than not.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

ACD Equities Change in Trend
High probability "change in trend" dates for top stocks in the current calendar month. Based on 15 years of historical data, it helps identify changes in both macro and micro trends.

I do not trade stocks but here is list of stocks per MF. Not sure how these stocks are selected, all MF says , these stocks are selected off 15 years of historical data.
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Thank you for this. Interesting to see some of the stocks that are on the list.

But this list is for May? (just wanted to clarify)
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

RCG, based on MF webinars and his insistence on KISS approach, I doubt it that he spend much time on Gann approach to trading.


Maybe , Elliott Wave since his best buddy Paul Tudor Jones recommends all traders working for him to read book by Robert Pretchter.

I been playing around MF concept of using his pivot MA's to get state of the market. I have not found it to be much of help so far for day trading. Here and there one does get a set up when pivot MA , pivot tracker, 30 days numbers line all line up and BOOM.

For your trading, which time frame trading crude oil you has found to be effective for day trading , 5 minutes , 30 minutes etc.. when using pivot MA and other ACD tools.

Does any one uses MF first of the month and First of the year concept and if one does, how in terms of setting up reference points for day and swing trading?

30 days cycle, as MF explained during NYMEX webinar, trading instruments tend to repeat price pattern , any one has tested it?
For crude, it seems to work more often than not.
More...

I use the 5 minute time frame. I draw the the opening range for the AUM or the EUR depending on what time of day it is, they both track pretty much the same against the USD. I then put on the A levels and if the market breaks and A, I put in the corresponding C. The rest is using my signal generator and just trade them. I do use the MA's for slope, which I converted to degrees. All three of them have to agree or no trade. Let's an A down fails or becomes a bad A. I will not wait for a C up, I will start looking after the market takes out point B, especially if the upcoming C is with the pivot. Just one of many ways to use ACD.
 
chart.ashx


Outside monthly still in play on SPY. This would be incredibly bullish if we get an outside month.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

I will check with MF to see if these stocks are for may. Looks strange to keep old stocks on line.

Magic of narrow daily pivot range plus other ACD indicators.
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It says May on the sheet.

Anyway, I found it strange that some of the cheaper stocks were listed.

I agree with Maverick's earlier post about equities being a challenge with ACD. Looking at alot of them, they run up/down at the open, and then chop/retrace. There doesnt seem to be alot of opportunity, or waiting for confirmation. Even with a 5 min OR.

Does anyone have any advice for product selection when it comes to stocks? To me, studying past behavior (frequency of ADR being a minimum %) seems good. But I am kind of stumped on this.

From looking at the majority of stocks, my inclination is to say trading failures (wider A levels, and underlying OR) is the way to go. But this kind of goes against the nature of ACD primarilybeing a trend following system I know he says that sufficient liquidity and volatility are the requirements, but it doesnt seem enough to cull down your universe.
 
Maverick has already given some good ideas on this. Another one I have had:

Take the average distance over maybe a 20 day period between the A up and the A down(We can call this the A range I guess) and divide it by the 20 day ATR. Focus on those stocks with the "A range" being the smallest % of the ATR.
 
I should add that if you calculate A levels as a % of ATR this is obviously pointless. I personally have been using that noise levels indicator I posted about earlier because I understand how it is calculated, it makes logical sense to me, and seems to work better than A levels. I used A levels in my last post because that is what this thread is about but my idea actually makes a lot of sense if you use the noise indicator.

So you don't have to dig it up the noise levels are the average of a period you pick of the smaller each day of open-low or high-open.

Examples if that is confusing:

Open High Low Noise Level
10 10 5 0
100 105 70 5
100 130 90 10
 
In case that was still confusing the idea is to find stocks that on average have the most move left after hitting an A level, however you choose to calculate it.

Oh and that last point you made about prefering to trade A failures, is just style preference as Maverick has pointed out. If you wanted to trade failures you might want to sort stocks by ones that on average will have the least movement left after a level breakout based on ATR.
 
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