The ACD Method

Just wanted to drop some respect. I said way earlier in the thread that I would not have taken a second look at some hotshot trader's public method if it weren't for someone of Maverick74's esteem giving it the thumbs up.

I definitely appreciate Mav's discussion here. It's allowed me to incorporate price action into my own method in a way that has been useful.

I'll always be wary of mass appeal but that's what got me in this particular arena. Hats off man.
 
Quote from Samsara:

Just wanted to drop some respect. I said way earlier in the thread that I would not have taken a second look at some hotshot trader's public method if it weren't for someone of Maverick74's esteem giving it the thumbs up.

I definitely appreciate Mav's discussion here. It's allowed me to incorporate price action into my own method in a way that has been useful.

I'll always be wary of mass appeal but that's what got me in this particular arena. Hats off man.
More...

Aww shucks. You're making me blush. :)
 
acd trader interesting post, regarding better exits its always a tradeoff, look at fas for example gap up from yesterdays close if you are long you want to hold, but how much in profits are you willing to give back? I will usually set a stop under the opening range. I usually trade 10 and 60 minute time frames. There is no great answer to this, your capital is always at risk when you have a trade on. I don't believe in trailing stops there is not enough room to run, there are lots of debates on other threads regarding scaling in or out; I like to take the whole thing off when tgt is reached.
 
Here are couple of my trades from yesterday, I was in the money for quite a while - My current methodology involves trailing and scaling out from a portion of my positions.

Are there any discussions out there where I can look into testing some exit methodologies. For example, yesterday my GC short from 1633 went all the way down to 1584, however I exited around 1612 - giving up about (28 points). If I trail too tight, the machine gets out of the position too early.

One of the methods that I m came across "Logical Trader" last night was using a Rolling 3 day pivot and lean off that to stay in the trades longer and use them as stops. Visually, the 3 day rolling pivot stops look good - however, just wanted to see what approaches are other traders using to take $ of the the table
 

Attachments

Quote from acdtrader:

I just found out about this blog, and I am impressed with the discussion that you guys are having. I was up all night going through every page - taking notes. Thanks to every one for contributing several key ideas.

...
More...

Interesting post, acdtrader. I'll definitely follow up to your post as automated trading is my main area too.


Meanwhile, as I'm working through the book I looked at an interesting effect with regards to the first day of the month.
On page 46/47 ("Significant Time Frames") Fisher claims that the first day of the month is significantly more often the high or low of the month than the other days.
In order to validate this claim, I looked at various futures and was surprised how strong this effect is - across all markets.

Attached is a histogram for crude oil, x-axis is the trading day of the month, y-axis is the number of monthly highs or lows made on each day (using data since 2000)
 

Attachments

Quote from flip:


Meanwhile, as I'm working through the book I looked at an interesting effect with regards to the first day of the month.
On page 46/47 ("Significant Time Frames") Fisher claims that the first day of the month is significantly more often the high or low of the month than the other days.
In order to validate this claim, I looked at various futures and was surprised how strong this effect is - across all markets.

More...

I am curious if that has to do more with futures (contracts, etc) than equities. It seems like like some of the things he does that are time related, or bsed around time cycles, might be more accurate with futures.
 
Quote from mdl060374:

I am curious if that has to do more with futures (contracts, etc) than equities. It seems like like some of the things he does that are time related, or bsed around time cycles, might be more accurate with futures.
More...

I'll take a look at equities too and post results here if you're interested. What I can say for now is that the effect is definitely visible in the equity index futures, so I guess it will be the same for individual stocks.
 
Interesting stuff flip. Here is a similar study where I studied, what % of the time OR is the high or the low of the day.

"OR High" "OR Low" "OR Stat - High / Low"
Metals
GC 15% 18% 34%
SI 17% 19% 37%
HG 13% 20% 33%

Energy
CL 16% 17% 33%
HO 19% 18% 37%
NG 20% 19% 39%
RB 18% 17% 35%

Softs
KC 22% 19% 41%
SB 24% 19% 43%

I conducted my study from Jan 2008 to Dec 2010.

Fisher mentioned it was about 20% but in the last 2 years - its much higher and further increases your edge in OR breakout trades.

Thanks for your pointer on the OR of the month being high / low of the day. I will create an indicator and see if biasing your daily trades using beginning of the month - helps the system.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top