The ACD Method

Quote from Shanb:

I have a three day rolling PR of 3 cents on the SPY and a 20 cent daily pivot range. 3 day is the smallest I have seen from the past couple weeks. Maybe we will be in for some volatility tom.
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I see the same in the SPY. Also, SLV has made a monthly A down, (at least according to my levels) and has been quietly moving downward. It's been a nice way to play the rise in the US dollar.

I have an 8 cent 3 day, and while it's not the smallest I've seen, I've been watching fairly closely. If the fed does nothing, and the dollar keeps going higher this could really be a nice trade.
 
Quote from Quon:

I see the same in the SPY. Also, SLV has made a monthly A down, (at least according to my levels) and has been quietly moving downward. It's been a nice way to play the rise in the US dollar.

I have an 8 cent 3 day, and while it's not the smallest I've seen, I've been watching fairly closely. If the fed does nothing, and the dollar keeps going higher this could really be a nice trade.
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/ES. http://www.screencast.com/t/QODL5lQKS
 
Gold and silver bounced again off their monthly A downs. ES confirmed a weekly A up as well as intra-day. Be careful if you are short the market. If you need to be short the market, be short copper. By far the weakest risk asset.
 
Well, I had my OR from the 7:30-7:50 number release. Got long off
of the failed A-down. Took a measly 30 cents on a few hundred shares...proceeded to go up 1.40+ from my entry. Haven't traded in a few days and am slightly under the weather...didn't help my decision making LOL.

Short off of the failed A-Up. Looks like a early entry as there was a retest 10-15 minutes later. Exited with a small profit after didn't play out in the TIME Expected. Was also short FST several hundred average price of 19:03...now printing 18:76. Out with a small profit.

Just a bit rusty...lets hope I get back into the flow of things here.
 

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Quote from Shanb:

Well, I had my OR from the 7:30-7:50 number release. Got long off
of the failed A-down. Took a measly 30 cents on a few hundred shares...proceeded to go up 1.40+ from my entry. Haven't traded in a few days and am slightly under the weather...didn't help my decision making LOL.

Short off of the failed A-Up. Looks like a early entry as there was a retest 10-15 minutes later. Exited with a small profit after didn't play out in the TIME Expected. Was also short FST several hundred average price of 19:03...now printing 18:76. Out with a small profit.

Just a bit rusty...lets hope I get back into the flow of things here.
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Similar situation for me today. I got long after a confirmed A Up intra-day around 11:40 est despite my hesitation about us being in the middle of my monthly OR, (with a confirmed monthly A down). Looks like that hesitation was right as the SPY basically sat there and started drifting lower. Great entry, so small loss, but I'm kinda kicking myself for not listening to my gut, (course how many times do you kick yourself for not trusting the chart over your gut?).



:p
 
One of the themes Fisher seems to always be going back to (especially in his videos) is taking advantage of people that are "trapped."
He especially goes into detail in the 3rd video when he describes reversals.
The movie theatre scenario, etc. He mentioned a top trader(At Tudor I believe) that all he looks for his bad news/good action and good news/bad action, each morning.

Can anyone here elaborate on their experience on these presenting the best scenarios for ACD trading?

It seems like anticpating and looking for gap plays in the opposing direction of the short term trend, might be a strong candidates for ACD intraday trades.
 
Quote from mdl060374:

One of the themes Fisher seems to always be going back to (especially in his videos) is taking advantage of people that are "trapped."
He especially goes into detail in the 3rd video when he describes reversals.
The movie theatre scenario, etc. He mentioned a top trader(At Tudor I believe) that all he looks for his bad news/good action and good news/bad action, each morning.

Can anyone here elaborate on their experience on these presenting the best scenarios for ACD trading?

It seems like anticpating and looking for gap plays in the opposing direction of the short term trend, might be a strong candidates for intraday trades.
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Yes, I recommended this very thing to Shan on his journal for daytrading stocks. It's probably bar none the easiest trade to make in equities if not any product.

Earlier in this thread the Bond trade I highlighted utilized this very technique. Catching the monthly A up where the whole world was short bonds going into the debt ceiling debate. Everyone was caught short and the bonds broke out hard to the upside and never looked back.

Back in the day when I daytraded stocks exclusively, this is probably where I made the most money. It was much easier then with specialists and the uptick rule because we had bullets, but even today the general idea still holds true.
 
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