The ACD Method

[carnap]

Break out of what? OK maybe break out of the 81.5 resist. But this occurred on 10.08. with an up gap already.
The daily chart shows how the latest up move has to be integrated or interpreted according to the big picture and what could the possible bullish consequence (opportunity) be.

There has been a final test of the multi-support level around 79 which lead to an impulse start on 8th of May. As said before on 10th of August the resist level around 81.5 has been conquered.

On hourly chart it could be seen that the resist level has been tested a number of times which reflects the importance of the zone which lead to a gap up break out. Goodmann would possibly speculate on a break out of the big triangle focusing a target at 89.8. The upper boundary line is at 85.01 actually but prior to that line there are two further resist areas around 83.4 and 84.5.

The hourly chart below shows a EW count since the positive test of the multi-support zone around 79.2.
An absolute requirement for a further up move is an affirmation that there is an impulse running. Which means that the up move has to reach the extension level 83.2 before breaking the lowest blue trend line and in best case before breaking the lowest black and second lowest blue trend line. This gives us the confirmation that a bigger impulse on a higher degree is up folding. If so we can say yes there will be a chance for a bigger break out.

 

[Maverick74]

Well, since this is an ACD thread, let me show you "my" charts. This is the first breakout on the QTR level in a year and a half. So yeah, it's significant.

 

[copyplus]

Good stuff, not at all obvious when looking at a chart.

I've been building a stock watchlist and going back and back-calculating NL's so I have some history on them. Time consuming work! You guys have any tips for when to stop tracking a stock? As it is I can see myself slowly adding to my list as new stocks come up on my radar, but eventually the list would become unmanageably long if I keep that up. LOL! Any tips?

 

[Robert Yanks]

Hello Mav,

What's your 30 day number line on the USD?

Thanks

Anyone out there trading the Dollar? This is a pretty serious breakout. And yes, there are dollar ETF's.

 

[Maverick74]

Good stuff, not at all obvious when looking at a chart.

I've been building a stock watchlist and going back and back-calculating NL's so I have some history on them. Time consuming work! You guys have any tips for when to stop tracking a stock? As it is I can see myself slowly adding to my list as new stocks come up on my radar, but eventually the list would become unmanageably long if I keep that up. LOL! Any tips?

Try not to start following the "hot" stock at the moment. Remember you are looking for "uncrowded trades.
My general rule of thumb is as soon as the stock becomes mentioned daily on CNBC, it's gone. I always get very angry when I have a stock all to myself and then I hear it mentioned on CNBC for the first time. It's like touching a baby animal. It's a death sentence.

 

[Maverick74]

Hello Mav,

What's your 30 day number line on the USD?

Thanks

+19

Confirmed about a month ago for me.

 

[RunItOnce]

Few number line basic questions. Is there any online reliable resource that gives the scoring rules in an easy to understand manner? Every post I find seems to be a jumble. For someone just starting his own set of lines, how far back should I start. Is thirty enough? Can the lines be used to filter markets for the purpose of intraday ACD trades. I.E., Market X is in confirmed positive mode, actively seek good A ups and failed A downs against the pivot, and vice versa, while avoiding the signals the number lines suggest might be vulnerable? Since the recent dollar confirm, I have noticed (in the E6) that the straight A down trades have been profitable, and failed A ups against the pivot have been devastatingly good from a R/R stand point. Friday's failed Aup at the pivot was close to perfect, and capturing 60 to 70% of the daily range was very doable. Conversely, A ups have been choppy and lacked follow through even when they played out okay.

I apologize if these topics have already been discussed, but this is a mammoth thread, and specific things can be hard to locate.

 

[copyplus]

Try not to start following the "hot" stock at the moment. Remember you are looking for "uncrowded trades.
My general rule of thumb is as soon as the stock becomes mentioned daily on CNBC, it's gone.

How about stuff that has calmed down after a big run? As an example, JAZZ peaked back in February after a monster run and has been going nowhere since. WYNN shows a similar pattern. Would it be ok to start tracking it again after say, 6 months of sideways drift? Or is it still in "too widely watched" territory as of now?

I'm trying to find the right balance. For example, I know that ACD can be a great aid for getting into stocks that appear to be "up too much", yet it also isn't best to trade things that everybody else is trying to trade. And usually stuff that is up a lot is on everyone's radar. So looking for a balance between those two things.

 

[copyplus]

Few number line basic questions.

I never found anything about scoring charts online. I just re-read the book chapter a few times and really tried to understand what Fish was getting at, and then came up with and wrote down what I thought were logical scoring rules. Haven't been at it long enough to know if my scores are giving me valuable info or not.

 

[Maverick74]

Few number line basic questions. Is there any online reliable resource that gives the scoring rules in an easy to understand manner? Every post I find seems to be a jumble. For someone just starting his own set of lines, how far back should I start. Is thirty enough? Can the lines be used to filter markets for the purpose of intraday ACD trades. I.E., Market X is in confirmed positive mode, actively seek good A ups and failed A downs against the pivot, and vice versa, while avoiding the signals the number lines suggest might be vulnerable? Since the recent dollar confirm, I have noticed (in the E6) that the straight A down trades have been profitable, and failed A ups against the pivot have been devastatingly good from a R/R stand point. Friday's failed Aup at the pivot was close to perfect, and capturing 60 to 70% of the daily range was very doable. Conversely, A ups have been choppy and lacked follow through even when they played out okay.

I apologize if these topics have already been discussed, but this is a mammoth thread, and specific things can be hard to locate.

How I score number lines won't help you. Just as how you score yours won't help me. Scoring is based on how well you read the markets. I happen to think I read markets very well and my scoring reflects that. But you have to take what's in Fisher's book as a baseline and tweek it from there. For example, if I had to score people in your family, not knowing any of them, I would probably do a pretty poor job although I might pick up on a few things here and there. But if you scored your family you would knock it out of the park because you know them better then I do. That's how number lines work. Number lines are a quantitative explanation to what "you" are seeing in the price action. Not what I'm saying or what copyplus is seeing. I hate rules. If there was a set ACD number line rule system I wouldn't be using ACD because it wouldn't be effective.