The ACD Method

What are you guys seeing in CL? I know it's below the QTR level but my NL was really firming up despite the continued weakness in the chart. But now that it has busted through the monthly that throws that idea out, at least temporarily.

Had anyone else noticed this? I had been thinking to myself maybe this is one of the NL divergence situations, so had my eye on the monthly levels, but so far appears it's not ready to turn around.
 
copyplus said:
What are you guys seeing in CL? I know it's below the QTR level but my NL was really firming up despite the continued weakness in the chart. But now that it has busted through the monthly that throws that idea out, at least temporarily.

Had anyone else noticed this? I had been thinking to myself maybe this is one of the NL divergence situations, so had my eye on the monthly levels, but so far appears it's not ready to turn around.
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I'm seeing oil has a confirmed QTR and Monthly A down as well as a confirmed 30 day negative number line. I'm not sure why you think the number line is firming. It's less negative but usually a firming number line is one where you are holding positive digits for awhile. I haven't had a positive value in probably over a month. So what I'm seeing here is very weak oil and I would NOT be looking to buy it.
 
Looked over things and don't see any mistakes for my scoring. FWIW I had CL at +6 as of close on Friday, compared to -18 a month earlier on 7/15. So that is what I meant by firming up and looking like a potential divergence.
 
copyplus said:
Looked over things and don't see any mistakes for my scoring. FWIW I had CL at +6 as of close on Friday, compared to -18 a month earlier on 7/15. So that is what I meant by firming up and looking like a potential divergence.
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I'm not sure what to tell you. But just so you understand, the number line is not a stock or a relative strength indicator. Just because the value is increasing does not mean the product is getting stronger. Think of the number line as a strangle with the wings at +9 and -9 and the values in-between are simply noise. The number lines are really only accurate once they get out beyond the wings. In between they are not really giving you much information. So if a number line goes from -3 to +3 for example, that is not saying the product is getting stronger. It means there is variation. Hopefully that makes sense.
 
Maverick74 said:
I'm not sure what to tell you. But just so you understand, the number line is not a stock or a relative strength indicator. Just because the value is increasing does not mean the product is getting stronger. Think of the number line as a strangle with the wings at +9 and -9 and the values in-between are simply noise. The number lines are really only accurate once they get out beyond the wings. In between they are not really giving you much information. So if a number line goes from -3 to +3 for example, that is not saying the product is getting stronger. It means there is variation. Hopefully that makes sense.
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sounds like another e-book entry. #killingme
 
Thanks Mav. That does make sense.

So what do you look for in a NL divergence? Is that something that is more useful on the 5-day than the 30?
 
copyplus said:
Thanks Mav. That does make sense.

So what do you look for in a NL divergence? Is that something that is more useful on the 5-day than the 30?
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You might have to be a little more specific. Are you talking about if the 30 day conflicts with the monthly or 5 day or are you saying if the 30 day is strong but yet the market looks weak?
 
I mean, what if the market is getting weaker, but the 30 is moving in the opposite direction?

I had crude at -19 in mid-July when it was trading above 100. Now a month later, trading 5 handles lower, and I had it at +6. An over 20 point positive swing in the NL while the market had moved lower. That's the reason it caught my attention.
 
First of all, I like that action. I like to see a number line going higher into lower lows. Having said that, again I think you are reading this wrong. The number line is a conditional statement. It's giving you an "if/then" statement. When the number line is outside the wings AND the market is acting strong, it's telling you there is a potential for a very strong move. So when you get long, you stay long. Say for the downside. When the number is going higher into a down move, it's telling you the opposite. It's not saying get long, but it's also not telling you to hold your short and take your family on that two week August vacation. LOL.

Number lines are NOT trading signals. And they are NOT indicators of trend. They give you a peek under the hood of the car. The number lines and understanding are at the core of what ACD is. It's what separates ACD from EVERYTHING else.

Having said all that, I'm still in a negative confirmed number line and have been since about 103 to 104. Although only around -3 now.
 
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