The ACD Method

mav, folks on here, does the acd give you a number line when we are in uncharted territory, the spu's at present for example
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

Inside the house of money... I'm well into it now.. Great book.. I love some of the insights...
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I liked "Invisible Hands" better but both are good reads. Enjoy!
 
Quote from ammo:

mav, folks on here, does the acd give you a number line when we are in uncharted territory, the spu's at present for example
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The number line is a daily score of price action that rolls forward so yes, there is always a number line count no matter where the market is at. Currently I have the ES at a -7 but I've tended to discount negative number lines in both stocks and stock indices. If I have a negative number (confirmed) I simply won't get long but I won't get short. I rather express a market short via the FX markets rather then through equities.
 
Merry Christmas to everyone.

Mav - thanks for the education.

Doing NLs is work - but I can see the value and it will pay off in the long run. At least I am freeing myself from the tyranny of emotional entry/exit/stop decisions ..
 
Mav,

does the magnitude of the move contribute anything meaningful to your number line or it's just a matter of how price reacts with time at the A levels, as fisher had originally proposed.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Heating Oil is going to confirm on the 30 day today for the first time in 6 months. The heating oil crack looks very attractive here.
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Hi Maverick, Merry Christmas to you as well. General ACD question as it relates to the number line. I understand (assuming nothing changed) that you have basically have 3 number lines for a given product 1) the 5-day rolling "momentum" line 2) the Monthly number line (tied to your monthly A-levels), which resets every ~30 days and 3) the rolling 30-day number line or long-term trend indicator (as an aside, I know you have mentioned a 10 day vol number line indicator before, but not sure if that is still part of your system). My question relates to picking up a new product/market and how much historical perspective you require prior to trading the new product/market. As a hypothetical, if you were to pick up say CL tomorrow and have never traded it or watched it before, what would you do from an ACD/number line perspective to familiarize yourself with the market to trade it? With the 30-day rolling number line for example, how far back would you go back to calculate it given the circular problem of when you start the numberline could impact the actual number line results and also how would you know how rare or not a particular confirm is if you don't have significant historical perspective? Sorry if there is a lot here, but any perspective would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
 
Doesn't it confirm around this time every year (winter demand)?

Likewise, gasoline NL confirms each year around Spring time (driving season)?

(with rare exceptions eg 2008 crisis)


Quote from Maverick74:

Heating Oil is going to confirm on the 30 day today for the first time in 6 months. The heating oil crack looks very attractive here.
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