The ACD Method

[justrading]

Re. The Aussie, given the weakness I wouldn't want to add, rather I closed out everything last week.

Unless something massive happens in China, AUD will probably weaken, particularly when markets start pricing in the taper which will make for a stronger USD.

RBA guidance points in that direction, so I'm keeping an eye out on ACD signal to go short.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...kely-to-be-materially-lower-in-future-1-.html

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from justrading:

Re. The Aussie, given the weakness I wouldn't want to add, rather I closed out everything last week.

Unless something massive happens in China, AUD will probably weaken, particularly when markets start pricing in the taper which will make for a stronger USD.

RBA guidance points in that direction, so I'm keeping an eye out on ACD signal to go short.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...kely-to-be-materially-lower-in-future-1-.html

Whatever you do, just have a gameplan. I find that mixing opinions with ACD is like oil and water. Because opinions will cause you to fit ACD into what you already want to do. I find that my personal opinions more often then not are exactly opposite of what ACD is telling me. But as long as you have a quantitative framework to work with and follow it, you're fine.

Regarding the Aussie, I'm going to key off next month's monthly A levels and the number line. If the number line is strong, that is telling me "how" I want to position myself. The A levels will till me "when".

 

[toolazy]

Quote from Maverick74:

BTW, the EUR/USD (6E) failed at the QTR A p almost to the tick around 1.3835. And I mean that literally as in a single tick. LOL.

thanks ...

must be related to money under control of people that use ACD and therefore acting at these levels. if market acting strong while falling, ACD level will more likely be reversal.

who says sharing profitable system is no-go

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from toolazy:

thanks ...

must be related to money under control of people that use ACD and therefore acting at these levels. if market acting strong while falling, ACD level will more likely be reversal.

who says sharing profitable system is no-go

Having a profitable methodology and being able to execute are two different things. I can throw a tight spiral but I'm no Peyton Manning.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from running_bare:

Problem with re-entry "Look for a pullback at your A levels for re-entry" is that oftentimes the momentum has totally changed

Further, it *could* lead to a complex consolidation (eg JPY) potentially lasting for months...lots of trapped traders..
Dead money.
Look at X for another example

I'm sure most of you saw what X did today. THIS is why you lean on the number lines. The underlying strength was still there and it rewarded you well for buying the dips.

Well, the price target I gave back in late August has officially been blown through. As a reminder, where did I get that price target? ACD of course. My target was based on the re-test of the Yearly A down. That is not to say it could not exceed that, but just that it was a logical area to target. The number line is still very strong and I would still buy the dips. And no, I don't have a position currently. I'm simply re-posting this not to brag, but to re-reinforce the fundamental ideas that underlie the ACD methodology.

Now, as to the comment above regarding the Yen. My number line on the Yen re-set a LONG time ago. Once it re-set it signaled the beginning of a potential consolidation phase and that is exactly what has transpired. It has since NOT confirmed. There is NO reason to be trading the USD/JPY now.

 

[cdcaveman]

you said you shorted CL? am i remembering correctly?

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from cdcaveman:

you said you shorted CL? am i remembering correctly?

No, was actually long around the QTR A down but it confirmed the A down so flat here.

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from Maverick74:

No, was actually long around the QTR A down but it confirmed the A down so flat here.

i don't have much of an expression on direction right now yet i have 28 spreads on.. purrrdy interesting

 

[koolaid]

Quote from Maverick74:

I'm sure most of you saw what X did today. THIS is why you lean on the number lines. The underlying strength was still there and it rewarded you well for buying the dips.

Well, the price target I gave back in late August has officially been blown through. As a reminder, where did I get that price target? ACD of course. My target was based on the re-test of the Yearly A down. That is not to say it could not exceed that, but just that it was a logical area to target. The number line is still very strong and I would still buy the dips. And no, I don't have a position currently. I'm simply re-posting this not to brag, but to re-reinforce the fundamental ideas that underlie the ACD methodology.

Now, as to the comment above regarding the Yen. My number line on the Yen re-set a LONG time ago. Once it re-set it signaled the beginning of a potential consolidation phase and that is exactly what has transpired. It has since NOT confirmed. There is NO reason to be trading the USD/JPY now.

Forgive my ignorance, but what does the number line being "reset" mean? That it has cross "0" again and in no mans land?

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from koolaid:

Forgive my ignorance, but what does the number line being "reset" mean? That it has cross "0" again and in no mans land?

Right, once it hits 0 (I actually use 0 or 1) then it re-sets and can generate a new signal going forward if it confirms. Otherwise it "indicates" chop going forward. Mathematically this makes perfect sense. If we simplify it to only A ups and A downs (+2 and -2) and over the last 30 days there is 15 of each, that would likely tell you that a whole lot of nothing is going on.