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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Monthly A up in the ES is 1474 and my volatility indicator is expecting a massive move in ES shortly. Plan accordingly!
Yeah Hoop and I have been discussing the Gold trade. Once again the number lines gave one an entry when the product looked like absolute shit in the price chart. We actually got a +9 confirmation on or near the lows which also happened to be at the monthly A down. Now we have a 5 day at +7 showing some rocking momentum and the 30 day has confirmed at +13.
Meanwhile the Aussie blasted through the monthly A up today and has a 5 day at +7.
Yeah Hoop and I have been discussing the Gold trade. Once again the number lines gave one an entry when the product looked like absolute shit in the price chart. We actually got a +9 confirmation on or near the lows which also happened to be at the monthly A down. Now we have a 5 day at +7 showing some rocking momentum and the 30 day has confirmed at +13.
Meanwhile the Aussie blasted through the monthly A up today and has a 5 day at +7.
On the topic of AAPL...we have a long setup coming into play here. Not a A+ setup by any means, but worth a look.
Tight pattern off of the failed monthly adown.
Trigger long through 530
Target: 550
Monthly aup is the technical target but this thing has been thing has been very weak as of late.
FWIW
Tight pattern off of the failed monthly adown.
Trigger long through 530
Target: 550
Monthly aup is the technical target but this thing has been thing has been very weak as of late.
FWIW
Attachments
Quote from Shanb:
Hourly chart, note the tight 3 day pivot range and adx coming into play tom!
Good trading!
I wish I tracked a 30 day on AAPL. The only fly in the ointment is relative strength. AAPL has been acting like shit while the market has been on a tear. Now the spoos are in overbought territory and are vulnerable to rolling over. If we roll over, I think AAPL will easily go through 500. However, I think the ES could very well breakout to the upside here as my volatility reading on the ES shows a big move coming and the number lines are fairly optimistic across several sectors not to mention the strength in currencies and the weakness in bonds. I think the spoos might fail on this first test of 1474 and then come back and go right through it on it's way to 1500. If that happens, your scenario might very well play out. I would prefer to see AAPL outperforming the overall market though and it has been trading very poorly the last month. So honestly I don't have a clue. LOL. Except I do expect vol to get a nice uptick next week. I'll tell you what has been on fire and that's the emerging markets both FXI and EEM.
Here is AAPL vs SPY. As you can see it put in a double top last fall and has been in free fall since. This will be a great test for your ADX though Shan! If AAPL does breakout in spite of the relative weakness, then you might just have something there!
Attachments
Quote from Maverick74:
I wish I tracked a 30 day on AAPL. The only fly in the ointment is relative strength. AAPL has been acting like shit while the market has been on a tear. Now the spoos are in overbought territory and are vulnerable to rolling over. If we roll over, I think AAPL will easily go through 500. However, I think the ES could very well breakout to the upside here as my volatility reading on the ES shows a big move coming and the number lines are fairly optimistic across several sectors not to mention the strength in currencies and the weakness in bonds. I think the spoos might fail on this first test of 1474 and then come back and go right through it on it's way to 1500. If that happens, your scenario might very well play out. I would prefer to see AAPL outperforming the overall market though and it has been trading very poorly the last month. So honestly I don't have a clue. LOL. Except I do expect vol to get a nice uptick next week. I'll tell you what has been on fire and that's the emerging markets both FXI and EEM.
Totally agree, some better setups out there right now. A buddy of mine does have a numberline for AAPL and it is actually showing a strong divergence. AAPL near the low end of the range and the numberline trending higher!
A good play on the emerging markets is X. Bull flag setup there...it triggered today
Attachments
Might be a good time to fade Joe now:
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
Bottom line is I am expending too much mental capital on the $AAPL position and it isn't working. Now reduced to my smallest long position.
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
On Friday Nov 16 2012 SPX was 1360, now 1465 $AAPL that day $520 and today $520. Obviously my long position and conviction is flawed
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
For $AAPL to open $11 higher and go straight down without a bounce is very deiscouraging, something's up.
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
I got out and took my loss on the $525 calls from Tuesday, holding no options and in the process of reducing my $AAPL equity position
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
Bottom line is I am expending too much mental capital on the $AAPL position and it isn't working. Now reduced to my smallest long position.
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
On Friday Nov 16 2012 SPX was 1360, now 1465 $AAPL that day $520 and today $520. Obviously my long position and conviction is flawed
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
For $AAPL to open $11 higher and go straight down without a bounce is very deiscouraging, something's up.
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
I got out and took my loss on the $525 calls from Tuesday, holding no options and in the process of reducing my $AAPL equity position
Quote from Shanb:
Totally agree, some better setups out there right now. A buddy of mine does have a numberline for AAPL and it is actually showing a strong divergence. AAPL near the low end of the range and the numberline trending higher!
A good play on the emerging markets is X. Bull flag setup there...it triggered today
Yes, X DOES look good as well as XLB.
Quote from Maverick74:
Might be a good time to fade Joe now:
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
Bottom line is I am expending too much mental capital on the $AAPL position and it isn't working. Now reduced to my smallest long position.
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
On Friday Nov 16 2012 SPX was 1360, now 1465 $AAPL that day $520 and today $520. Obviously my long position and conviction is flawed
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
For $AAPL to open $11 higher and go straight down without a bounce is very deiscouraging, something's up.
Joe Terranova ‏@terranovajoe
I got out and took my loss on the $525 calls from Tuesday, holding no options and in the process of reducing my $AAPL equity position
hahahhaha! Man he has been a good fade lately across the board. Lets see how it plays out