The ACD Method

[gtpark]

Quote from Maverick74:

Quarterly levels are holding in Gold, Oil and the ES but the 5 day number lines look like shit. Market is still very vulnerable here. As guy Adami likes to say, you have your bogie, those QTR levels to lean on. If they go, look out below. Very few bright spots in this tape.

Didn't know there was an active and very helpful discussion going on about Mark's ACD system. I've been profitably using his "approach" (better way to put it in my opinion) and my personal variations on it for five years now.

If my calculations are right... WTI is fiddling with the longer-term pivot range at 85.07/86.46.
We're sort of testing the upper bound of that since poking below the pivot on Monday GLOBEX trading. (The lower level in the pivot range was tested on the 24th as well.)

I trade intraday but I use these as reference points whenever it comes into play. I take about 80 ticks away either side of the pivot range as semi-annual A-up/down level which comes in at 87.26/84.27.

I agree things look a bit dark everywhere, and things are sitting at a pretty critical level in terms of making a direction. I think we might see a short-term bounce in crude for a potential to test 88.50 area. But, I personally would wait until elections are cleared out the way since that's probably going to have a rather big/lasting impact on the markets considering if Bernanke gets changed by Romney, the tune might change quite considerably.

 

[boze_man]

anyone have the indices making a weekly A up? I have ES and NQ at the weekly levels...didnt look at YM or TF yet

also looks like NQ sitting in last weeks weekly pivot...and I still have NQ below the QTR A level...

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from boze_man:

anyone have the indices making a weekly A up? I have ES and NQ at the weekly levels...didnt look at YM or TF yet

also looks like NQ sitting in last weeks weekly pivot...and I still have NQ below the QTR A level...

TF performing the best. All the indices except YM are at or above the weekly but it's Thursday so the weekly confirms really are not terribly important. Crude failed at the weekly to the tick. Gold back down below the weekly A up. Copper also above the weekly. Homebuilders making new highs on the year!

 

[Maverick74]

For those of you in currency land, the Aussie has been riding a nice bid. AUD/JPY looks like it wants to break out.

 

[justrading]

Quote from Maverick74:

For those of you in currency land, the Aussie has been riding a nice bid. AUD/JPY looks like it wants to break out.

Mav, how on earth do you keep track of ACD for so many instruments and symbols? Way back in this thread you said you determine the ACD manually but use a simplified number line scoring system.

Have you automated this now?

 

[boze_man]

I have HO hitting the monthly A down and holding so far...

also the RB monthly A down is near the previous swing low, so maybe a test and a double bottom? tho the 30day numberline looks pretty bearish...

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from boze_man:

I have HO hitting the monthly A down and holding so far...

also the RB monthly A down is near the previous swing low, so maybe a test and a double bottom? tho the 30day numberline looks pretty bearish...

I see that as well. I'm watching both the heating oil and gasoline crack spreads closely. The heating oil crack got up to $45!!!!!! That's insane. If and when you get bullish on crude, the gasoline crack should have some nice downside left in it.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from justrading:

Mav, how on earth do you keep track of ACD for so many instruments and symbols? Way back in this thread you said you determine the ACD manually but use a simplified number line scoring system.

Have you automated this now?

I watch everything because as a price action trader it gives me a much better feel for what's going on. I can't trade in a vacuum. I look for early tells that risk assets are catching a bid somewhere or risk assets are starting to breakdown. If you just focus on one product, I think you are more prone to head fakes. The market is telling you a story everyday. A very complex story with a lot of characters. In order to follow the plot line carefully, you have to watch all the characters. You don't have to trade all of them, but certainly be aware of what's going on.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Maverick74:

Number lines are firming up on the Q's. The ATR A down in the ES is right below this level. Ironically the Q's have already confirmed the A down as well as the monthly A down. The numbers paint a very mixed picture. I think the two better shorts are oil and Gold. Oil now is at -5 on the momentum number line and -19 on the 30 day. Also my proprietary volatility indicator is indicating an explosive move in both oil and gold. Since both have very negative number lines, I expect these moves to be to the downside. I think oil and gold will be cleaner then the indices. There is actually a lot of sector strength out there in the indices that are going to make the selloff in stocks choppy.

It took a week but we finally got this breakdown in Gold I was expecting on higher volatility. Through the monthly already and below the QTR now as well.

 

[boze_man]

Quote from Maverick74:

I see that as well. I'm watching both the heating oil and gasoline crack spreads closely. The heating oil crack got up to $45!!!!!! That's insane. If and when you get bullish on crude, the gasoline crack should have some nice downside left in it.

would ya trade the crack via ACD or just look to do your relative value spread...not sure if that makes sense to ya but i mean would ya chart the crack and then apply your ACD or would ya do it via the way ya would like when ya chart a spread via Prophet...hope that makes a little more sense? I dont think TOS has the Cracks avail to chart...