The ACD Method

NG looking like a failed monthly here. I'm watching 2.509 as my monthly there. Again, new to the futures, but throwing this level out there...

Lot's of chatter on CNBC and looks like a H&S for a short term top. I took profits on remaining position today, (FWIW).
 
Quote from Quon:

NG looking like a failed monthly here. I'm watching 2.509 as my monthly there. Again, new to the futures, but throwing this level out there...

Lot's of chatter on CNBC and looks like a H&S for a short term top. I took profits on remaining position today, (FWIW).
More...

I spread off my position and locked in a nice credit with further upside profit if we go higher.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I spread off my position and locked in a nice credit with further upside profit if we go higher.
More...

Nice, I want to go out further on confirmation, but if I were playing UNG when do I have to worry about that contract roll?
 
Quote from Quon:

Nice, I want to go out further on confirmation, but if I were playing UNG when do I have to worry about that contract roll?
More...

It's already in the fair value of the ETF on a continuous basis.
 
Tomorrow we have very tight pivots in bonds, crude, nat gas and the indices. Can't remember the last day I saw so many products with tight pivots at the same time. Combine that with the CSCO earnings and it looks like we have our hands full! Or at least I will. :)

BTW, I use pivots calculated on 24 hour trading. That does make a difference it seems.
 
Quote from ChaosN:

I'm relatively new to using ACD in my trading, but have noticed recently that there may be merit to tracking not just the net macro number line values, but also the sum of the absolute values.
By looking at the sum of the absolute values, you have a measure of the amount of trendiness the stock is exhibiting intraday, as well as giving you a quantitative measure of how often the stock is making good As on an intra-day basis.
So a stock that has 5 days in a row of +2, -2, +2, 0, -2 would be given a total value of 8 looking at the absolute value scale (and a 5 day numberline value of 0), and any confirmed A - up or down - should be taken more seriously, vs. a stock that has shown a tendency to close inside the opening range based on this same absolute value scale.
What are your thoughts?
More...

Chaos, there's a tremendous amount of good information on this thread, but you're not going to get much of a response from the regulars, they pretty much stick to themselves.

I think your suggestion has some merit. As you noted, the higher absolute value shows that the stock or futures contract is trending sufficiently to confirm an A, either up or down. It's probably worth adding to the number line and monitoring it for a while to see if it adds any value to your trading.
 
Quote from sarue:

Chaos, there's a tremendous amount of good information on this thread, but you're not going to get much of a response from the regulars, they pretty much stick to themselves.

I think your suggestion has some merit. As you noted, the higher absolute value shows that the stock or futures contract is trending sufficiently to confirm an A, either up or down. It's probably worth adding to the number line and monitoring it for a while to see if it adds any value to your trading.
More...

Huh? WTH. LOL. I have spent almost 900 pages answering each and every question on this thread as have others. That's why this thread is 900 pages long!!!!!! Good lord people. Please. You would think you would be a little more appreciative of anyone that has taken the time to put 900 pages and 2 years of time into a thread. Some people absolutely amaze me. And not in a good way. LOL.
 
Quote from ChaosN:

I'm relatively new to using ACD in my trading, but have noticed recently that there may be merit to tracking not just the net macro number line values, but also the sum of the absolute values.
By looking at the sum of the absolute values, you have a measure of the amount of trendiness the stock is exhibiting intraday, as well as giving you a quantitative measure of how often the stock is making good As on an intra-day basis.
So a stock that has 5 days in a row of +2, -2, +2, 0, -2 would be given a total value of 8 looking at the absolute value scale (and a 5 day numberline value of 0), and any confirmed A - up or down - should be taken more seriously, vs. a stock that has shown a tendency to close inside the opening range based on this same absolute value scale.
What are your thoughts?
More...

ChaosN, I'm sorry, I missed this post. I seem to have been missing a lot of posts lately. I swear I'm not seeing these as they show up in real time for some reason.

Anyway, as to your idea. I think that data is very interesting, summing the number lines. However, I think I would come to the opposite conclusion at first glance. Let me explain. If you have a period where there are a lot of A ups and A downs, signaling a lot of volatility, I think mean reversion is likely to kick in and I would expect chop. However, if the total count was low, signaling a lot of chop, I would think breakouts are right around the corner. I'll start paying attention to this data and see what I notice.

Intuitively I already know there is a mean reversion aspect to this. Days of consecutive A ups and A downs usually beget choppy action and vice versa. Hence the narrow pivot breakout strategy.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Huh? WTH. LOL. I have spent almost 900 pages answering each and every question on this thread as have others. That's why this thread is 900 pages long!!!!!! Good lord people. Please. You would think you would be a little more appreciative of anyone that has taken the time to put 900 pages and 2 years of time into a thread. Some people absolutely amaze me. And not in a good way. LOL.
More...

Looking back I don't even see when this was an original post by Chaos. The thread also has a tendency to move fast. Overlooking something isn't intentional.

Mav's right; thread wouldn't be 900 pages if not for his and others' generous contributions.

Many thanks to all who contribute, and here's hoping this thread never dies!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top