The ACD Method

Quote from dv4632:

Do any of you give any weight to opening range volume?

It's something I've been tracking for a while now, after being inspired by some old posts on Steenbarger's blog. The idea being that below avg OR volume indicates large participants are not active in the markets and therefore significant moves are less likely, and vice versa when OR volume is above average. Of course I still pay attention to how things trade after the opening range because things can always change ( example this morning OR vol below avg but we got a nice down move). Anyone else pay attention to this or is it not really all that useful?
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Unfortunately HFT's have really distorted the volume landscape. Also since the retail investor left the market, it makes it even harder to judge what's going on inside the opening range. Honestly I think a better tell on volume is the period between 9:00 and 10:00 central time. It seems if a move is going to happen, it's going to happen AFTER the OR and that is where you want to see volume. If the volume is lower then average after the OR is established, it's probably going to be a chop fest.
 
Quote from baggerlord:

If you had told me in the past that I would have consistant profit for a few months and then realize I didn't like trading I would have laughed. But that is what has happened. I have found that I just don't want to put my energy and effort into trading. By taking that effort and redirecting it elsewhere I am finding great success at work and realizing my dreams. I just have no interest in looking at charts and watching markets anymore. Go figure.

BTW I wish I had a thread like this when I first discovered trading 10 years ago. Maverick has done a great service for free here and I'm sure it will help many people in their trading.

Anyways that is where I have gone.
Good luck everybody!
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Baggerlord, just curious, what kind of work do you do?
 
agreed...great thread always finding bits of info to think over...mav with regards to the numberline ....what is the main difference between rolling and resetting?
 
Quote from random flyer:

agreed...great thread always finding bits of info to think over...mav with regards to the numberline ....what is the main difference between rolling and resetting?
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The purpose of the monthly number line is to be able to make a side by side comparison of the monthly A levels relative to the monthly number line.

The 5 day rolling is used more for short term momentum. See in the past I found it difficult to catch market turns when the number line got up to plus 25 or something crazy. Even Fisher himself didn't have a way to determine when a product was getting weak. All he said in his book is if you have a large number and suddenly it starts dropping rapidly, get out! Well, I didn't know how exactly to "quantify" dropping rapidly. So to me, the 5 day rolling solves that problem.

Another way to think of it, the longer term number line is good for identifying the trend and the 5 day is good for entries and exists.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Unfortunately HFT's have really distorted the volume landscape. Also since the retail investor left the market, it makes it even harder to judge what's going on inside the opening range. Honestly I think a better tell on volume is the period between 9:00 and 10:00 central time. It seems if a move is going to happen, it's going to happen AFTER the OR and that is where you want to see volume. If the volume is lower then average after the OR is established, it's probably going to be a chop fest.
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Thanks. I have another question for you or anyone else who cares to chime in.

Can anyone recommend ways to identify the best leading stocks to keep tabs on? Just wondering if there's something I'm not thinking of, or any good sites I could utilize. Or if it's better to stick with sector ETF's/bonds/currencies and not follow individual stocks please say so.

FYI my objective is index trading, and currently I keep tabs on a number of sector specific ETF's as well as what I consider to be leading stocks (such as AAPL of late).
 
here is my little tip for today. If you have think or swim which is part of TD Ameritrade you can eyeball scan the mkt very quickly, enclosed is a pick of the sp100, you can see in 2 seconds that GS is up big today. I am generally platform agnostic but this is a good tool to see quickly the relative strength of an index, good trading.
 

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Quote from kinggyppo:

here is my little tip for today. If you have think or swim which is part of TD Ameritrade you can eyeball scan the mkt very quickly, enclosed is a pick of the sp100, you can see in 2 seconds that GS is up big today. I am generally platform agnostic but this is a good tool to see quickly the relative strength of an index, good trading.
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Great tip! I actually never even looked at that before. Great value add today King! :)
 
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