The ACD Method

Excellent stuff Maverick. TY for the tip.

And yeah, I think I kinda fit that profile, I did the scan thing a bunch of different ways, and got similar results :)
 
Although with futures a historically low ATR produces little results for me not sure about ACD?



Quote from Maverick74:

Volatility usually means the trade is becoming crowded, over leveraged and the price action is driven by stops. It's very hard to make money in those markets. Usually "daytraders" want volatility because they have a fixed amount of time to exit a position. A swing trader does not. A swing trader wants trend, not volatility. Of course all traders want movement, but not erratic movement.

It's very hard to enter a swing trade with a stop if there are stops all around you and people jumping in and out with massive leverage. I much rather have a quiet market that is being slowly accumulated that is trending.

One of the mistakes a lot of newbies make is looking for volatility. It causes them to get into stocks or commodities "after" they have made big moves and now the product is whipping back and forth stopping everyone out. It causes them to over trade and also to build bad habits i.e taking profits too quickly.

Once you see an explosive move in volatility, usually it's best to look for trades elsewhere. Not wait for them to calm down and get in them. The volatility usually represents the culmination of a move.

I remember back when I daytraded in NY for Worldco as a newbie, I would run scans everyday for volatile stocks, because that is where I thought the "action" was. Then one day a guy came up to me and said why are you watching those stocks, the move already happened. Watch these. I said, those stocks look dead, why would I trade them. And his response was, because they are going to move. I asked him, how did he know that? He said, it takes practice, but that is the skill you need to develop. It's not easy, but who said trading was.
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Quote from Quon:

Just adding my two cents, (for what it's worth).

I think it's important that you find something that's confirmed an A on a longer term time frame, and yet not become overly volatile just yet. A's tend to occur before the product really explodes to the upside, (look at Maverick's calls on Gold, Coffee, and ESPECIALLY the 30yr) and just because something confirms say a monthly A, doesn't mean it can't pull back too, (this is important).

Sometimes you're in the trade while it's making an A. If so, great, but sometimes you're not. No worries there, keep watching, and play a favorable bounce. Remember what Fisher says about confirmed A's - they can pull all the way back to the bottom of your OR without being "broken."
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this makes sense also. thanks
 
Quote from pwrtrdr:

Although with futures a historically low ATR produces little results for me not sure about ACD?
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If you are a not a price action trader, the comments about volatility are not particularly applicable.

Let me put this another way. Volatility produces noise. The more noise, the harder to read price action.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Aw shucks RCG. I'm so flattered. :)

Down in P&R I got the impression you didn't think I traded or understood markets. :D

Well, good to get you out of the basement of ET. There is more light up here and a little bit more friendly. Welcome on board. Have a cocktail. Stay awhile. :)
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I knew you traded, but I can see you are a competent technician, which translates to you knowing what you are doing. I know ur in my neck of the woods, so next time I am in Chicagoland I will take you up on that brewski. You follow the White Sox tho, and thats an issue, but otherwise you seem like a pretty cool guy:D
 
My first trade post ACD is to take a good A down and sell Aussies and buy Yen. So far so good. I was so confident of this trade that I took the weekend spread to get in at Oanda.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

If you are a not a price action trader, the comments about volatility are not particularly applicable.

Let me put this another way. Volatility produces noise. The more noise, the harder to read price action.
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Day trading requires some decent volatility imo.


Swing and trend trading I understand what you are saying......although risks change dramatically comparing over night positions vs. intraday.

I read the book, some good ideas well presented
 
Quote from RCG Trader:

I knew you traded, but I can see you are a competent technician, which translates to you knowing what you are doing. I know ur in my neck of the woods, so next time I am in Chicagoland I will take you up on that brewski. You follow the White Sox tho, and thats an issue, but otherwise you seem like a pretty cool guy:D
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Brewski sounds good. Just give me some advance notice to make sure I don't have a stormfront meeting that night. :)
 
Quote from RCG Trader:

My first trade post ACD is to take a good A down and sell Aussies and buy Yen. So far so good. I was so confident of this trade that I took the weekend spread to get in at Oanda.
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BTW, my monthly A down on the AUD/JPY is 80.58. It traded down to 80.45 and bounced. Successful test of that level.
 
Quote from pwrtrdr:

Day trading requires some decent volatility imo.


Swing and trend trading I understand what you are saying......although risks change dramatically comparing over night positions vs. intraday.

I read the book, some good ideas well presented
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Let me clarify my comments on volatility a little more. I'm not talking about absolute volatility i.e CL is more volatile then DX. I'm talking about relative volatility. For example, AAPL has a 30 day ATR say of 7.00 and now has an ATR of 12.00. I'm saying when volatility exploded likes that, usually the move is either over or in the process of being over. I'm not saying to look for products that don't move. The tells are spotted by looking at "relative volatility" not "absolute volatility". Hope this clears that up.
 
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