The ACD Method

Quote from mfbreakout:

question for traders who trade ES intra day. I doubt it most traders here trade ES intraday, but i thought i will ask anyway.
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Mfb, failed A downs are very good risk/reward set ups in ES. You risk maybe 2 handles to make 10. I always shoot for A levels as targets. So if I get long on a failed A down, the A up is the target. I never ever ever ever look at internals on failed trades. Why would I care? I'm risking a few ticks. If I get into a longer term macro trade where I'm risking 10 to 20 handles, then sure, price action is very important. Failed A trades though are a dime a dozen. And ES offers those up better then any other instrument.

Don't over complicate things. Keep it simple.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Mfb, failed A downs are very good risk/reward set ups in ES. You risk maybe 2 handles to make 10. I always shoot for A levels as targets. So if I get long on a failed A down, the A up is the target. I never ever ever ever look at internals on failed trades. Why would I care? I'm risking a few ticks. If I get into a longer term macro trade where I'm risking 10 to 20 handles, then sure, price action is very important. Failed A trades though are a dime a dozen. And ES offers those up better then any other instrument.

Don't over complicate things. Keep it simple.
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Thanks. So basically one take the trade with stop loss and see what happens?

I do it in CL all the time but was not sure about ES. I just place my order ( this is away from news etc time period) with stop loss and watch. It either works or does not.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

Thanks. So basically one take the trade with stop loss and see what happens?

I do it in CL all the time but was not sure about ES. I just place my order ( this is away from news etc time period) with stop loss and watch. It either works or does not.
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Well, that sounds like gambling. LOL. You are guys are killing me on this thread. I'm never going to be able to look RCG in the eye. :)

I would not just call this "taking the trade". Spoos have been strong the last month since bouncing off the 1200 level. We got bad news out of Europe and good action here! A lot of the leading sectors are strong. GOOG breaking out, AAPL back above 400, financials looking good. This is a market should be bought on dips as long as volatility (VIX) keeps dropping.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Well, that sounds like gambling. LOL. You are guys are killing me on this thread. I'm never going to be able to look RCG in the eye. :)

I would not just call this "taking the trade". Spoos have been strong the last month since bouncing off the 1200 level. We got bad news out of Europe and good action here! A lot of the leading sectors are strong. GOOG breaking out, AAPL back above 400, financials looking good. This is a market should be bought on dips as long as volatility (VIX) keeps dropping.
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LOL. What I meant to say ( which you did nicely) is that after i have done my analysis, i take the trade without looking at market internals, indicators etc..

I was confused as i see traders looking at ticks, market internals etc.. all the time. I do look at them to gauge whether it's going to be one time frame auction day or 2 sided auction day, thats about it.

Good to know , i can trade es same way as cl- not gambling but with analysis.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Well, that sounds like gambling. LOL. You are guys are killing me on this thread. I'm never going to be able to look RCG in the eye. :)

I would not just call this "taking the trade". Spoos have been strong the last month since bouncing off the 1200 level. We got bad news out of Europe and good action here! A lot of the leading sectors are strong. GOOG breaking out, AAPL back above 400, financials looking good. This is a market should be bought on dips as long as volatility (VIX) keeps dropping.
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Interesting you mentioned the Vix here. I've been thinking that the number of time periods that I'm using in my ATR could/should be dependent on the Vix. So for instance, maybe when the Vix is high, I should use 25% of the 5 period ATR, so I'm reflecting the recent noise. When the Vix is low, maybe I need a "smoothing mechanism" like a 10 period ATR.

Anyone doing anything like this, or am I just overcomplicating things again?
 
Quote from Maverick74:

NFLX confirmed a weekly A up this morning. The monthly A up is at 80.00. Just about there.
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Joe Terranova must be reading this thread. He is saying NFLX must be owned now. He is trying to front run my monthly A up!
 
Quote from Quon:

Interesting you mentioned the Vix here. I've been thinking that the number of time periods that I'm using in my ATR could/should be dependent on the Vix. So for instance, maybe when the Vix is high, I should use 25% of the 5 period ATR, so I'm reflecting the recent noise. When the Vix is low, maybe I need a "smoothing mechanism" like a 10 period ATR.

Anyone doing anything like this, or am I just overcomplicating things again?
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You might be over complicating things. :)
 
Quote from Maverick74:

You might be over complicating things. :)
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Thanks for keeping me on track. I really appreciate it. I think I was trying to build a rube goldberg, and thought maybe mentioning it in the forum would be a good idea.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

question for traders who trade ES intra day. I doubt it most traders here trade ES intraday, but i thought i will ask anyway.
More...

At the risk of getting my pee-pee slapped, I'll comment. This is for my short term/day trading.

I analyze price RELATIVE (what Mav calls price action) - stocks vs. sector, sector vs index, stock/sector vs correlated stock/sector, ETF's vs. corresponding futures, indexes vs vix, etc. This identifies WHAT to trade.

I then narrow in & analyze the chart ( what I call price ACTION) - trends, support, resistance, consolidation areas, yesterday high/low, gaps, pivots, etc. This tells me WHERE to trade it. Nothing complicated, basic charting. No indicators other than ACD stuff.

I then look at internals - breadth, A/D, UVOL/DVOL, TICKS. I of course don't blindly take entry signals from internals, but I view them more from a "relative" viewpoint - what is it doing since the open, how fast is it changing, is it acting "normally", is it strongly/weakly bullish/bearish, etc? This fine tunes the WHEN.

But what the hell do I know......
 
Quote from medicsix:

At the risk of getting my pee-pee slapped, I'll comment. This is for my short term/day trading.

I analyze price RELATIVE (what Mav calls price action) - stocks vs. sector, sector vs index, stock/sector vs correlated stock/sector, ETF's vs. corresponding futures, indexes vs vix, etc. This identifies WHAT to trade.

I then narrow in & analyze the chart ( what I call price ACTION) - trends, support, resistance, consolidation areas, yesterday high/low, gaps, pivots, etc. This tells me WHERE to trade it. Nothing complicated, basic charting. No indicators other than ACD stuff.

I then look at internals - breadth, A/D, UVOL/DVOL, TICKS. I of course don't blindly take entry signals from internals, but I view them more from a "relative" viewpoint - what is it doing since the open, how fast is it changing, is it acting "normally", is it strongly/weakly bullish/bearish, etc? This fine tunes the WHEN.

But what the hell do I know......
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Thanks. What do you mostly trade, futures on indicies, stocks, etf's etc.. ?
 
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