The ACD Method

[SteveM]

The forum is playing on probablities, not true edges.You are gamblers.

In watching Fisher's seminar videos from way back in 2002-2005, he never says just buy every A-up and you'll become profitable. As a matter of fact, if you watch the first seminar video he did, literally the first sentence out of his mouth when he stood at the podium was "if you are here today because you think I am going to teach you the holy grail of trading, you are wrong." He talked about ACD being one piece of the puzzle that "when overlaid with other things can help you identify good risk reward opportunities and knowing when to press the gas pedal vs when to press the brake."

And that has been my experience when applying it to my intraday trading...does Fisher's stuff allow me to print money? No...Does it force me to confront my bullsh*t lies I tell myself when I have a losing position on that is grinding against me that I think "has to turn around in my favor." Yes, absolutely. So in that sense, on an intraday basis when markets are flying - it helps keep me more objective, which has helped me reduce the size of my losing trades greatly, thus improving profitability.

 

[baggerlord]

Man I hope you oil traders are making a killing.

 

[SteveM]

"May you live in interesting times"....

 

[Maverick74]

Isn't this only a problem if you think we're at the top? I mean if asset classes continue to go up...basically we continue to turn the wheel then everyone is happy. Of course, we'll pay for this greatly down the road but we just don't know when.

No, because our entire retirement system is underfunded from social security to pensions. We basically borrowed trillions counting on 10% returns to make up the difference. When it comes time to pay out those pensions there won't be any money there.

Also, if you want me to introduce economic theory into this, there is something called the permanent income hypothesis.

A permanent income hypothesis is a theory of consumer spending which states that people will spend money at a level consistent with their expected long term average income.

What this means is that consumers are spending money and incurring debt based on the assumption that at retirement they will have a certain amount of money available. If you lower the growth rate then by proxy you MUST lower your current spending and you MUST increase your savings. People are not doing that because their expectations are too high.

 

[DeltaRisk]

Actually this is a pretty good thread for beginners. Unlike most threads who make trading look easy, this thread focuses on the boring hard work. Think about it, just to participate on it you have you to read 100s or 1000s of pages. People come here asking for a one page summary and I joke they can probably get away with just reading the first 1200 pages instead of the whole thing. Of course I'm not really joking.

I think you will find the quality of the content here higher then any other thread on ET and that goes the same for the posters here. There are no get rich quick potions sold here. We cover every market in the world, talk about the big picture, little picture and get down in the weeds doing good old fashioned data analysis. I strongly emphasize data analysis and using statistics to prove your ideas, not to simply to believe them.

There are lots of threads one could come on at ET and your criticism might be valid. But here it is not. There are a lot of hard working people on this thread. No one here will talk about how easy trading is or making 100% returns. Most that stop by for the first time leave shortly soon after once they realize the work that is required to not only read this thread but simply to participate in it. But the quality is second to none and that is why it's been running for 8 years with over 13 thousand posts.

Truthfully, I'd save time.
By that I mean, just read everything you and few others have posted.
I'll admit I was trigger happy when I was criticizing this thread.

In this profession, it's 99% miss.
But, you guys don't really seem to have a financial interest in offering advice.
So, I apologize. And, I'll try to add in content when I can.

 

[baggerlord]

Truthfully, I'd save time.
By that I mean, just read everything you and few others have posted.
I'll admit I was trigger happy when I was criticizing this thread.

In this profession, it's 99% miss.
But, you guys don't really seem to have a financial interest in offering advice.
So, I apologize. And, I'll try to add in content when I can.

If you have any specific questions ask away. There are some pretty helpful people here.

 

[DeltaRisk]

If you have any specific questions ask away. There are some pretty helpful people here.

Thank you, but my only intention on this site is to gather capital.
I do this for a living, but I'd like to do it on a larger scale.

 

[SteveM]

Thank you, but my only intention on this site is to gather capital.

Where should we mail the check?

 

[DeltaRisk]

Where should we mail the check?

Contracts signed first.

 

[Maverick74]

Thank you, but my only intention on this site is to gather capital.
I do this for a living, but I'd like to do it on a larger scale.

A lot of us do this for a living. And many here don't but still want to learn or maybe pass the time. Are you saying you are trying to "raise" capital on ET? Or do you mean gather intellectual capital?