The ACD Method

[Samsara]

Quote from kinggyppo:

Bull roast today trading well below pivot

? The mean of the pivot in ES for me is 1235.75.

 

[kinggyppo]

I am talking about regular pivot point on dec es, what am I missing? Mav I think you are talking pivot range no.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from kinggyppo:

I am talking about regular pivot point on dec es, what am I missing? Mav I think you are talking pivot range no.

This is the ACD thread! We don't use regular pivots around here. We use the daily pivot range! j/k

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Maverick74:

This is the ACD thread! We don't use regular pivots around here. We use the daily pivot range! j/k

ok, will make sure I mention that in the future. Anyhow I am always watching the daily pivot, we have an inside day so far.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from baggerlord:

Here is todays open +- the mean of .16. Once price exceeds that there is something like a 50% chance that it will go on to be a big move and therefore a 50% chance that it will fall within the big move distribution.

The lines below it contain the bulk of the larger moves observed over the sample.

you have the right idea, you have trend and reversion days, think of it from a market makers point of view, when the mkt takes off and goes directional as it did this morning where are they gonna cover, granted there are a lot of arbs/hft out there, the directional move creates the reversion to the mean if you will, that's what Baldwin was talking about in the article I put up a few weeks ago. If you can solve this problem you are likely to be very wealthy. Good trading.

 

[kinggyppo]

as a side note I would add that the large directional moves like the move from early august. If you are doing a reversion trade leveraged
well as they say when the tide goes out you see who is swimming naked!

 

[Maverick74]

I got long Live Cattle at the open this morning. Confirmed breakout.

 

[baggerlord]

Quote from kinggyppo:

as a side note I would add that the large directional moves like the move from early august. If you are doing a reversion trade leveraged
well as they say when the tide goes out you see who is swimming naked!

I'm not suggesting reversion strategy by any means. I'm thinking the opposite actually.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from baggerlord:

I'm not suggesting reversion strategy by any means. I'm thinking the opposite actually.

to me all of Fisher's strategies are breakouts, you want to get stopped out for a small loss when you are wrong, the reversion lets say to the open is what kills this type of trade.

 

[Maverick74]

So it looks like the spoos bounced 10 handles of the bottom of the daily pivot range. Interesting side note, we have traded the entire session inside the daily pivot range. We're trapped!