The ACD Method

Here is a cumulative view of GC by day 3 it is over 20%.

Edit: I briefly created some weekly output too and it is also looks good like you say. I didn't play with the data too much as right now trying to figure out how to analyze intraday data and that is eating all my free time. :)
 

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Interesting price action today. 30 some sectors and all a 0 or -2.

SPX has had 14, 52 week highs since the first of the year. The NL is strong. However, today’s low was 2365.51 and my monthly A Down is 2363.09 Is this just a refreshing pause on the volatility level before the next leg up …. or? :)
 
I have the es sitting just above its monthly A down and and also just above last months POC, which would make me pretty interested in a long here if I got a signal. I know mixing of ACD with other methods is frowned upon here but I have found the two to complement each other extremely well.

I also wanted to discuss that. It is accepted that ACD doesn't "work" by itself and one needs to learn to read price action, but at the same time using other stuff is frowned upon. I personally am getting the best results using VP and candlesticks to read PA. Do you guys mind sharing, in broad terms, what you use to trade around the framework you create with ACD?
 

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On a related note, CL has really gotten my interest the last few days. I'm seeing selling below the recent relevant POCs, at the right time of the month. This is what I meant earlier when I look for a trade with a good location in price and time. I don't track NLs for anything but gold yet because thats the only thing I actively trade right now due to work constraints. What are you guys seeing in CL numberline action lately?
 

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baggerlord said:
I have the es sitting just above its monthly A down and and also just above last months POC, which would make me pretty interested in a long here if I got a signal. I know mixing of ACD with other methods is frowned upon here but I have found the two to complement each other extremely well.

I also wanted to discuss that. It is accepted that ACD doesn't "work" by itself and one needs to learn to read price action, but at the same time using other stuff is frowned upon. I personally am getting the best results using VP and candlesticks to read PA. Do you guys mind sharing, in broad terms, what you use to trade around the framework you create with ACD?
More...

Clarification here. ACD "does" work by itself. I was always referring to the A levels. A levels are just volatility levels. They are not going to work in a vacuum. The number lines is where the meat is.
 
Maverick74 said:
Clarification here. ACD "does" work by itself. I was always referring to the A levels. A levels are just volatility levels. They are not going to work in a vacuum. The number lines is where the meat is.
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Gotcha thanks.

I don't use any tool or method if I don't understand the logic behind it. So I have been thinking about the pivot ranges. It seems to me that they and volume profile both attempt to accomplish the same thing, IE represent the area where the bulk of trading took place in a given time period. Thoughts?
 
baggerlord said:
Gotcha thanks.

I don't use any tool or method if I don't understand the logic behind it. So I have been thinking about the pivot ranges. It seems to me that they and volume profile both attempt to accomplish the same thing, IE represent the area where the bulk of trading took place in a given time period. Thoughts?
More...

I know there is a lot of stuff in Fisher's book but not all of it is really ACD even though it's in there. The Sushi Roll, the daily pivots, 3 day pivot range, etc is not ACD, it's just extra stuff. I personally don't believe there is much value in that stuff including market profile and the daily pivot. What I did is transform the pivot into number lines as well to make it data friendly. So I have pivot lines just like number lines. Now I can do something with that. Just telling me where a daily pivot is at or where the point of control is or whatever, is for the most part just noise in my opinion. Now once you start scoring it, you can see if within that noise there is a real signal. But just one singular data point is really just that, a single data point. If it's working for you, by all means continue to use it.
 
Maverick74 said:
I know there is a lot of stuff in Fisher's book but not all of it is really ACD even though it's in there. The Sushi Roll, the daily pivots, 3 day pivot range, etc is not ACD, it's just extra stuff. I personally don't believe there is much value in that stuff including market profile and the daily pivot. What I did is transform the pivot into number lines as well to make it data friendly. So I have pivot lines just like number lines. Now I can do something with that. Just telling me where a daily pivot is at or where the point of control is or whatever, is for the most part just noise in my opinion. Now once you start scoring it, you can see if within that noise there is a real signal. But just one singular data point is really just that, a single data point. If it's working for you, by all means continue to use it.
More...

Interesting thanks. I'm going to look at that as I work on my code. I think it would be useful for analyzing a broad range of products like you have done with your auto scoring of number lines. That is my end goal too once I get the skills for it. Right now I'm super focused on one product because I think it is helping me really get into the weeds of what I am trying to do. For example for gold rather than A value I am using a distribution and each time period I score it in the traditional way but its score is influenced by price movement in both directions. I am using a rather wide range of .8-5 for gold A value but that only contains 66% of my calculated A values.

I finished oil 101. It was an eye opener and I think I understand much better why I get hugely better results with the tools I am using on gold vs oil. It also makes me think I might just stay away from oil. I'm reading a similar book on treasury yields next. The goal is to not feel like an idiot when you and the other pros on here talk about curves etc.
 
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