Well, I was just about to ask you guys if I had missed something. NASDAQ getting killed, presumably because of the large cap stocks?
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
That's one way of looking at it the other is they'll be able to bring the money back home, pay a much smaller tax then they otherwise would have to and be able to finally put the money to work.
I think this is mostly just sector rotation a lot of money is flowing into financials, defense, and infrastructure plays.
I think what you are missing is that a lot of their past growth has come from minimizing tax expense. So the question is, what is their real growth rate? These companies have gotten away with paying almost ZERO tax to grow their earnings. What happens if now they have 25% of that chopped off? You have to re-adjust their growth years on out into the future now. Not saying they are going out of business, but mathematically it HAS to lower their growth rates. Market is repricing for that and correctly so.
So you think most of this is based on the repatriation aspect of the funds? I wasn't sure how they would be impacted overall since I thought Trump wanted to lower corporate taxes.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...le-halt-emerging-market-carnage-futures-slide
“We are seeing carnage in Asian FX markets,” Robert Rennie, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac in Sydney, echoed our commentary. “It’s providing a very strong reminder that the S&P 500 is not the correct barometer of Trump-driven risk aversion -- it’s Asian currencies.”
Bingo."
“We are seeing carnage in Asian FX markets,” Robert Rennie, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac in Sydney, echoed our commentary. “It’s providing a very strong reminder that the S&P 500 is not the correct barometer of Trump-driven risk aversion -- it’s Asian currencies.”
Bingo."
Anyone have an opinion on WTI? I am looking at my MADn and QADn being taken out.
Just my opinion, but it looks like WTI probably wants to get down to that $42.95 September low to see what's down there...may get a nice little bounce up off of it, but this sharp and rapid selloff looks different to me than the one we had in July ($47->$39->$49 in one month). In July as soon as we turned up, crude never looked back, whereas here this week's Mon-Wed rally has already reversed back down and we are right at the lows. So in short, it'll be interesting to see how WTI reacts to the $42.95 low if it gets there, but the market seems less eager to rally than it was in July. Also, OPEC seems to be using announcements lately to influence price, so I'm paying attention to that.
Thanks.
Yeah, OPEC burnt me a couple of times. The orderflow has been bearish since late last month and has stayed that way even during the election mega-chop. If this QADn holds, I am seeing the average monthly range as the next stop around $40 and possibly $36. I hate to predict and screw myself up in the process so hopefully I wont get hung up on this bias but I am hoping for a nice failed weekly AUp next week.
Yeah, one thing I've really struggled with is remaining objective, which has lead to me trying to fade moves....Not sure if you use it, but if you can discipline yourself to only trade on the same side as the 3-day rolling pivot range, it will force you to remain objective which I think it is critical to moving down the path of consistent profitability.
The curves across the entire energy complex are getting steep again which is bearish for flat price. The tell was in the Brent curve that got destroyed while WTI was near $50. Something had to give and that something was the front end of the WTI curve.