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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
I quite agree, but it's a flight to safety and you know what they say about the markets being irrational.
In the last hour I've seen S&P may/will take away the AAA rating, an economic research unit slashing 2017 U.K. growth. It's going to keep coming thick and fast.
I expect a relief rally, but timing it is critical.
In the last hour I've seen S&P may/will take away the AAA rating, an economic research unit slashing 2017 U.K. growth. It's going to keep coming thick and fast.
I expect a relief rally, but timing it is critical.
Shaddick said he saw no evidence that the betting market was deliberately “manipulated.” Still, he said that bookies may have been misled by the weight of money, with more cash staked on a “Remain” vote even though the majority of bets were backing a Brexit.
In a reflection of 1 person 1 vote, would it be more appropriate to count the number of bets rather than amount wagered? Would be interesting if others in different situations did a comparison.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...es-get-it-so-wrong-ladbrokes-tries-to-explain
In a reflection of 1 person 1 vote, would it be more appropriate to count the number of bets rather than amount wagered? Would be interesting if others in different situations did a comparison.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...es-get-it-so-wrong-ladbrokes-tries-to-explain
I guarantee you these books knew Brexit probability was higher then it was trading. Public money was pouring in on remain though so no need to adjust the odds when your making out like a bandit.
I disagree here, they don't "know" shit, the good news is neither does anyone else, this is
likely the biggest misconception, everyone is in the "know" but you, does anyone know where the spuz will close today, no proof either way
I disagree here, they don't "know" shit, the good news is neither does anyone else, this is
likely the biggest misconception, everyone is in the "know" but you, does anyone know where the spuz will close today, no proof either way
Yeah I agree with King here. I hear this argument all the time that Vegas knew this or Vegas knew that. I know a guy that use to run the largest sports book at the Mirage and he said they carried a lot of risk and they got picked off a lot. Managing spreads was very important and they were very active in laying off their risk with other sports books. They really never had any inside information about anything. I think there is a real genuine disbelief out there about just how angry some people are in this world right now and they can continue to not discount these things correctly.
sure Mav its easy to blame the system/whoever for your lack of position sizing, I am always trying to tell these guys with increased vol you have to, have to reduce your size, or be taken out in a stretcher. I think the bids on seats at the merc/CBOE may tick up though.
death spike on the open?
death spike on the open?
I'm not saying they had any insider information but books carry risk all the time when the public money is taking the other side. They were dealing 80% chance of remain when the correct odds may have been 60%.
When bets get really one sided they are more eager to lay it off. Where they get lucky is when they are only marginally one sided this can happen when "favorites" get overbid. For example, the pats are routinely over bid throughout the season and sports books collect on that, think of it like skew on an option. Teams like the Packers and Cowboys also get routinely over bid. So they earn a little yield on that. But when something is completely one sided, they usually will not put their solvency at risk to take a spec bet.
When bets get really one sided they are more eager to lay it off. Where they get lucky is when they are only marginally one sided this can happen when "favorites" get overbid. For example, the pats are routinely over bid throughout the season and sports books collect on that, think of it like skew on an option. Teams like the Packers and Cowboys also get routinely over bid. So they earn a little yield on that. But when something is completely one sided, they usually will not put their solvency at risk to take a spec bet.
this is just a great example of people incorrectly guessing the future nothing wrong with that guessing the future is hard, I think the leave on betfair was around 4:1 then it got bid up to 10:1, then reversed to 15:1 for stay last night as the votes came in. But its all chump change compared to capital markets. To DT3's point personally you couldn't give me a long euro trade but it may rally to 1.15 -1.20, if I had really deep pockets I would sit on a short euro position forever, but you know the Keynes quote.