The ACD Method

FCXoptions said:
I'm no ACD practitioner, so these according to the ACD method are saying buy? Will be interesting to follow. I owned DRE for awhile up until like a month or two ago. Haven't checked it since though.
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These are saying that the stock is acting in a manner in which the trend is likely to continue. Buy on pullbacks.

Disclaimer: I'm a licensed clown who is not legally allowed to give investment advice. Anything I say here can only be used to generate laughter for small children and old people. :)
 
Haha thanks. I'm not trading it anyways, just interested to see how they play out. I'm looking for potential unleveraged methods to run in my 401k as a portion of my allocation, so might look more into ACD potentially.
 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/sterling-volatility-explodes-record-high-brexit-looms?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)

Implied vol exploding on pound...

20160610_brexit2_0.jpg
 
I am seeing some great results on manually backtesting my customized intraday ACD Method.
No, this system will not allow you to finish green 4 out of 5 days every week like those great traders at SMB Capital(I am being sarcastic) but it will allow me to have a great chance at showing a profit every month combined with having winning months greater than losing months.

Just a few thoughts...

Why would I use a % of ATR in my A and C values? Part of the power of the ACD method is to instantly adapt to changing volatility for THAT TRADING DAY. Why use historic ATR values based on past trading days? I am finding better results using a % of the OR. I understand that there are no magic values to be had here but the power of the system is to adapt to conditions that occur on that day.

Time is more important than Price. My Time Exit criteria is if I am not showing a profit after time equal to the OR has passed (rather than half the OR time) then I exit the trade automatically. I also think the time confirmation for trade entry is very important. I am also playing around with a time confirmation on exit instead of just an exit if B or D is touched.

I want to customize the stops. I know Mark left them wide to avoid whipsaws but there has to be a better way..any advice/tips?
 
MoneyMatthew said:
I am seeing some great results on manually backtesting my customized intraday ACD Method.
No, this system will not allow you to finish green 4 out of 5 days every week like those great traders at SMB Capital(I am being sarcastic) but it will allow me to have a great chance at showing a profit every month combined with having winning months greater than losing months.

Just a few thoughts...

Why would I use a % of ATR in my A and C values? Part of the power of the ACD method is to instantly adapt to changing volatility for THAT TRADING DAY. Why use historic ATR values based on past trading days? I am finding better results using a % of the OR. I understand that there are no magic values to be had here but the power of the system is to adapt to conditions that occur on that day.

Time is more important than Price. My Time Exit criteria is if I am not showing a profit after time equal to the OR has passed (rather than half the OR time) then I exit the trade automatically. I also think the time confirmation for trade entry is very important. I am also playing around with a time confirmation on exit instead of just an exit if B or D is touched.

I want to customize the stops. I know Mark left them wide to avoid whipsaws but there has to be a better way..any advice/tips?
More...


There are a few reasons why to use historic ATR. One is, more often then that there appears to be an inverse relationship between the OR and the range the rest of the day. I've talked about it frequently on this thread that when OR are very wide, the rest of the day usually is choppy. When OR is narrow and tight, the rest of the day is volatile and trending. Now this is not always the case but more often then not it is. The 5 day ATR is trying to capture the vol environment we are in. It dynamically adjusts to changes in vol over time. Also the OR dynamically adjusts to volatility.

Time stops are very important. I don't just use time stops for A level violations and neither did Mark. If you get long anything there is some assumption it should start working at some point. If it doesn't, you probably want to get out. Now there is a difference using time stops on say a failed A down vs buying a confirmed A up. On a failed A down, your time stop should be strictly enforced even if the A level is not violated. The reason for this is, if you get long at the lows and the market is sitting there, it's going lower, that's trading 101. Now if you get long near the highs and the market is sitting there, it's probably flagging and will break higher.
 
Maverick74 said:
There are a few reasons why to use historic ATR. One is, more often then that there appears to be an inverse relationship between the OR and the range the rest of the day. I've talked about it frequently on this thread that when OR are very wide, the rest of the day usually is choppy. When OR is narrow and tight, the rest of the day is volatile and trending. Now this is not always the case but more often then not it is. The 5 day ATR is trying to capture the vol environment we are in. It dynamically adjusts to changes in vol over time. Also the OR dynamically adjusts to volatility.

Time stops are very important. I don't just use time stops for A level violations and neither did Mark. If you get long anything there is some assumption it should start working at some point. If it doesn't, you probably want to get out. Now there is a difference using time stops on say a failed A down vs buying a confirmed A up. On a failed A down, your time stop should be strictly enforced even if the A level is not violated. The reason for this is, if you get long at the lows and the market is sitting there, it's going lower, that's trading 101. Now if you get long near the highs and the market is sitting there, it's probably flagging and will break higher.
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Gold Jerry.... Gold!!
 
Maverick74 said:
There are a few reasons why to use historic ATR. One is, more often then that there appears to be an inverse relationship between the OR and the range the rest of the day. I've talked about it frequently on this thread that when OR are very wide, the rest of the day usually is choppy. When OR is narrow and tight, the rest of the day is volatile and trending. Now this is not always the case but more often then not it is. The 5 day ATR is trying to capture the vol environment we are in. It dynamically adjusts to changes in vol over time. Also the OR dynamically adjusts to volatility.

Time stops are very important. I don't just use time stops for A level violations and neither did Mark. If you get long anything there is some assumption it should start working at some point. If it doesn't, you probably want to get out. Now there is a difference using time stops on say a failed A down vs buying a confirmed A up. On a failed A down, your time stop should be strictly enforced even if the A level is not violated. The reason for this is, if you get long at the lows and the market is sitting there, it's going lower, that's trading 101. Now if you get long near the highs and the market is sitting there, it's probably flagging and will break higher.
More...

I appreciate your insights Maverick74. You no doubt have saved me countless hours of research before I would have even scratched the surface on that. Thanks....Time for me to put on a pot of coffee and get back to the drawing board :-)
 
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I don't think he was asking about Gold. He was giving you a compliment by calling your response to my question "Gold" and making an obscure reference to the show Seinfeld....or maybe he was just asking about Gold lol
 
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