The ACD Method

[hoop121]

RB ripping this morning. Argus reported a Wood River Coker problem this morning

 

[Maverick74]

RB ripping this morning. Argus reported a Wood River Coker problem this morning

Rbob crack confirmed back on the 18th. Spread is up 4k per spread since the confirm.

 

[Maverick74]

ACD is still saying to stay long risk

 

[FCXoptions]

Rbob crack confirmed back on the 18th. Spread is up 4k per spread since the confirm.

When you say it confirmed, are you all using time as the confirmation? So ex. if the level you are watching holds for a day then it is confirmed?

 

[Maverick74]

When you say it confirmed, are you all using time as the confirmation? So ex. if the level you are watching holds for a day then it is confirmed?

Yes.

 

[eurusdzn]

http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/EDZ15&style=technical

Some doubt of a rate hike seen in stocks yesterday due to poor US manufacturing data. Notes and bonds rallied pretty well. Very little movement in the DEC2015 90 day eurodollar contract.
This contract has a couple weeks to expiration coinciding with FOMC and will settle at about 99.67 or .42 There is probably going to be a lot of mixed messages in the two weeks to come. Im looking for some doubt in the fed 'liftoff' to be long here.
Thoughts?

 

[logicaltrader]

I have been trading products from the short side since the failure at MAUp last week. The last 2 weeks have resulted in 2 straight WAdns. WTI and Brent confirmed MADn for me Wednesday, products followed yesterday. The front 3 months in HO have settled below my QAdn today. WTI and Brent are right there but not confirmed the QAdn yet. RB is lagging a little bit. I am taking it one week at a time and I think we have a bit more downside coming next week.

It is amazing how much confidence you have while trading by sticking with just basic ACD rules. I just didnt get biased long at any point in the last few weeks. I think I have been biased short since the middle of Oct when we failed the MAUp below the Qtr pivot. I wish I had executed better but I have learned more in the past 2 months than the past 2 years. Preaching to the choir here but its not just about having a set of rules, its so much more about how well you can execute upon them. Its that combination and I think I just made a huge leap in the right direction figuring out what works for me better.

I think there is still room for HO to keep going a couple of more cents towards the MADn at 1.28-1.29. A break below that and I think we could see 1.14 - 1.15. The front 2 cal spreads also look like they have room to go. Still taking all this one week at at time.

Extremely grateful to all that contribute here.

 

[running_bare]

What is the "reason" for the strength in CHF in recent days (especially today)?

Past few days it's been negatively correlated to EUR - whereas before it was always strongly positively correlated...

 

[DT3]

My SPY NL confirmed to the downside today, normally I'd discount an A down on the news that came out but it confirmed before the shooting was reported. On a separate note hope they catch these assholes. wtf is wrong with ppl?

 

[SteveM]

...On a separate note hope they catch these assholes. wtf is wrong with ppl?

In my opinion, in the majority of these shootings there are two interacting issues at hand:

1) US laws allow mentally ill people the right to buy automatic weapons very easily.

2) The world/media/politicians give tremendous attention to people who carry out mass shootings. For two weeks following the shooting, the perpetrators are celebrities in a world that worships status.

So, you take a person with mental health issues, who feels disenfranchised in someway, who also happens to live in a country whose media glorifies these shootings, place a machine gun in his hands, and this is what we get. Obviously,there are unique cases that don't fit this mold, but not many in my opinion.