The ACD Method

kinggyppo said:
you had a post a while back trying to open the thread a bit, there was a thread called global macro trading which was interesting to follow as a lurker. Per the usual et way it degenerated
into arguing about nonsense, but still was an insightful thread. (Mav I don't see any chart attached on es). I was going to comment that in the markets there is always a story of the day, while there is alot of noise in the news but this is a valuable idea. So China is the story of the day, week etc. What I try to do is look at a bunch of news services and see if they are talking about the same thing. This lets me know that the "powers that be" large traders are aware of this. I am wondering how the big firms are thinking about China, is this a pause in the bull, or regime change, like you said this is where you can get killed...choo choo. Second oil, low low oil under $30 is a major sign of deflation globally, how would you like to be in emerging markets right now. Jim Rickards has written some great stuff on currency wars which is simply dropping the currency to expand exports. Hello Japan; China devaluing its currency is probably the biggest macro story this year along with oil. Nasty weekly candle on es.
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King, I've been beating this to a drum on here so why stop now right? LOL. The bubble right now is in the emerging market currencies. I keep saying over and over, watch your FX markets. Let me shine some color here. In 2008 during the credit crisis, the carry trade was somewhere between 2 to 3 trillion worldwide. Today? How about 9 trillion. It's off the chart. The exposure in these countries is at a level beyond description. Why? Easy. The never ending zero interest rate environment in the G-10. I think the US will be spared from most of this but the emerging markets are going to get lit up. Guys.....watch your FX! We good? good. :)
 
Maverick74 said:
King, I've been beating this to a drum on here so why stop now right? LOL. The bubble right now is in the emerging market currencies. I keep saying over and over, watch your FX markets. Let me shine some color here. In 2008 during the credit crisis, the carry trade was somewhere between 2 to 3 trillion worldwide. Today? How about 9 trillion. It's off the chart. The exposure in these countries is at a level beyond description. Why? Easy. The never ending zero interest rate environment in the G-10. I think the US will be spared from most of this but the emerging markets are going to get lit up. Guys.....watch your FX! We good? good. :)
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Thats amazing. I simply do not know how big money is allocated by large professionals having not worked in this business.
One may think that for the last couple years there has been little good in BRIC economies and equities to justify such large allocation. They did not seem like sexy, hot money , opportunity times like some days gone by. But there is of course massive liquidity due to developed Central Banks.
Is it simply relative? Interest rate diffirentials between US,Europe,Japan vs. the Emergings.
And regardless , like gravity and water it will flow?
Honestly , witout your provided reference i would not know that 9 tillion is BIG. Now i do.
thanks.
 
wow12 said:
Max don't let it get too just take it with pinch of salt and as learning experience ( i remember in my poker days knowing when your "tilting" and knowing to walk away from the table was usually the optimal strategy to pursue ) ,Max just regroup and reassess and from what i have read from some of your previous post and the amount of money you where racking in suggests your a tremendous trader probably better than 95% of individuals at ET;).
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Atleast i can take solace in the fact i didnt double down again, which i was thinking about doing at 1954 when i had finally felt enough pain, had i done that id be in big shit right now. :D Going to trade alot smaller for a little bit till things start going my way again, it sucks doing it during volatility but ive been doing some stupid things the past couple weeks since my firm blew out. Got to get back into good habits before something happens that i cant recover from.
 
Max if 1900 doesn't hold your firm will have lots of company, so there was a guy
named spectre used to trade on es thread, was bullish on fed day so he laddered a buy stop
order all the way up. Never saw a better trade than that, if you trade futures you can do this small maybe 1 or 2 contracts. The idea is if we probe lower you don't get filled and killed.
 
kinggyppo said:
Max if 1900 doesn't hold your firm will have lots of company, so there was a guy
named spectre used to trade on es thread, was bullish on fed day so he laddered a buy stop
order all the way up. Never saw a better trade than that, if you trade futures you can do this small maybe 1 or 2 contracts. The idea is if we probe lower you don't get filled and killed.
More...

We are going to have one hell of a snapback day this week where id imagine thats the way to play it now that there is no support for miles.
 
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