The 98% Who Fail

Fah Q · Jun 28, 2011

Quote from cornixforex:

Any scalable profession has extremely high failure rate, not just trading.

a very GOOD point

Low Roller · Jun 28, 2011

Quote from gnode:

As far as defaulting, we won't.

Read the 14th amendment of the constitution. It basically states that the US will pay on its debt no matter what.

But, if the USA were actually sticking to the constitution, then thousands of laws and executive orders passed since 9/11 would not have happened.

The constitution was more meaningful when it wasn't on a roll in the bathrooms of congress and the white house.

stock777 · Jun 28, 2011

Quote from Bob111:

on the other hand trading is very unique business. it is impossible to compare it with something else. where one can loose couple K's in 5-10 minutes and be happy about it? yes,happy, because if he didn't close this position, the loss will be let's say 10K.
in what business one can make couple K's in 5-10 min and will be angry, mad after that? because if he did nothing till let's say EOD, he would made 10K

i have to admit that from my experience it's actually very frustrating and self destructing hobby\business. specially day trading. specially for perfectionist's. prepare yourself for following: no matter of what you do, or make, you will be unhappy with your decisions most of the time.

No one wants to hear this, better let them think there's something wrong with them and if only they tweak here, tweak there, buy a book here, listen to a guru there, it will all be good.

PS Try serious horseplaying for a world class mind fuck.

gnode · Jun 28, 2011

Quote from efficiency:

Since I have far more losses, scratched with the flick of the wrist, than "wins:, why...........it's easier to remember the wins. Nevertheless, I maintain a copius losses journal for when truly wacked, generally a result of gaps. Paid for those lessons, not going to discard them.

As for the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, "no matter what" is kinda of eh, strong platitude. Try as I may, I can't envision anybody on the floor using that phrase.

For YOUR viewing pleasure, I've attached a synopsis from Section 4, circa 1868 when the drunkard Grant was "our" fearless leader. I guess you're entitled to your interpretation. Emancipation is a tad (not to be confused with Lincoln's son) out-dated.

Shit load of retarded bankers buy demand deposits for zip and/or time deposits a hair above zero, and put them is risk-free 10 year T-notes. They'd continue to do so IF they yield subsided to 2.5% or 2.25%, or 1.75%. Still a historically steep yield curve. No credit risk, no bank examiner compliance.

With the left hand buying from the right hand (the one with the printing press) can their be an internal default?

Technical default hinges upon Standard & Poor and/or Moody's ratings in the eyes of the Chinese, rather than gubment intent. Raisin (not to be confused with dried grapes) the debt ceiling is a foregone conclusion with (74) precedents.

Printing money to pay on debt IS default.

On that note, we were in default with QE2.

But back when we had the gold standard, you couldn't print to pay debts. So the 14th amendment would actually avoid default. Now we manage to default in spite of it.

SnakeEYE · Jun 29, 2011

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

I spoke to a good friend, who has put up 3 million year to year over the last 6 or so but now, they are thinking of other ways to make money. According to his observation, the edge is gone now. Unless you can swim with the HFTs, who have milla-seconds of execution time, the reward no longer is worth the risk.

Very true.I`m just trying to swim with the HFTs,but it just too tight and narrow.Sometimes it goes quiet well,but it`s just so labor intensive,you are like a bot sometimes

Side job or side business isn`t a bad idea,as you have nothing to do 70% of the time in the market.Better yet to have the "side trading",i`d say.

bone · Jun 29, 2011

Quote from SnakeEYE:

Very true.I`m just trying to swim with the HFTs,but it just too tight and narrow.

Ten years ago, I was a very high volume Liffe / Eurex trader. I personally re-invented myself into much more of a swing trader, and the results have been very positive for me in terms of my own trading. I have a client who has returned 45% on his capital since going live on March 01, and another client who has returned 10% since April, so I know that stretching out timeframes a bit does work.

Maybe something to consider... longer timeframes and stepping back from the turbulence. Why play into the bots strength ?

Ash1972 · Jun 29, 2011

Quote from bone:

Ten years ago, I was a very high volume Liffe / Eurex trader. I personally re-invented myself into much more of a swing trader, and the results have been very positive for me in terms of my own trading. I have a client who has returned 45% on his capital since going live on March 01, and another client who has returned 10% since April, so I know that stretching out timeframes a bit does work.

Maybe something to consider... longer timeframes and stepping back from the turbulence. Why play into the bots strength ?

You mean March 2010?

Sorry no you meant 1st March.. I read it as March 2001.

bone · Jun 29, 2011

March 2011, futures spreads exclusively. Very modest max drawdowns, scaleable, very cheap to capitalize with the exchange SPAN margin credits. I took on an S&P 500 pit trader in Feb. who is 7 for 7 with the grain spreads.

You do not have to compete with the bots. Guess what, markets trend better and are easier to understand in longer timeframes.

Just a suggestion.

focusonmoney · Jun 29, 2011

Quote from Bob111:

on the other hand trading is very unique business. it is impossible to compare it with something else. where one can loose couple K's in 5-10 minutes and be happy about it? yes,happy, because if he didn't close this position, the loss will be let's say 10K.
in what business one can make couple K's in 5-10 min and will be angry, mad after that? because if he did nothing till let's say EOD, he would made 10K

i have to admit that from my experience it's actually very frustrating and self destructing hobby\business. specially day trading. specially for perfectionist's. prepare yourself for following: no matter of what you do, or make, you will be unhappy with your decisions most of the time.

I disagree... When you open up a business you lose money right away... For example lets say you spend 50k to open up a clothing store. You are in the red until you make back that 50k.... Don't try to make up excuses on why people lose money in trading..

Trading isn't easy, golfing isn't easy, having a successful business isn't easy etc... Is not because trading is unique, it's because people aren't willing to put in the time to make it work...

bone · Jun 29, 2011

Quote from focusonmoney:

I disagree... When you open up a business you lose money right away...

Yes, if indeed your business is legal, this is one of those rare generalizations that holds water.

Trading has a very low capitalization entry price compared to other business ventures, and from my observations over the years, most traders fail because they do not have an adequate trading plan and the discipline to follow through with it. For that reason, it would be typical for a successful trader to have taken a few or even several bites at that apple before he ultimately gets it right.

I will typically formulate a trading business plan with a client before they risk anything in the live markets. The client will tell me how much capital he wants to risk per day, and we come up with a 'starter' portfolio of spread combinations and market sectors, as well as position sizing.