The 95% consensus is now just 43%

Most likely the increase in atmospheric CO2 we observe is due in significant part to a combination of warming and anthropomorphic contribution. This would certainly account for CO2 rise being correlated to temperature. If CO2 is the primary cause of the warming, and it is not, correlation of CO2 with temperature would be a necessary condition. But of course, such correlation is nowhere near a sufficient condition to prove CO2 is the cause of the warming.

It is that strong correlation that has caused so many amateur scientists to go astray, and a few professionals, Hansen being one of them. Hansen seems to have become emotionally involved and is apparently now blind to more recent scientific findings, many of which are inconsistent with his early 1980s Hypothesis.

I have my own Hypothesis, and it is that direct, anthropomorphic and natural thermal pollution may turn out to be a not insignificant contributor to global warming. (In science, an hypothesis is a guess, not a theory. It's a starting point for further research.)
 
piezoe said:
Most likely the increase in atmospheric CO2 we observe is due in significant part to a combination of warming and anthropomorphic contribution. This would certainly account for CO2 rise being correlated to temperature. If CO2 is the primary cause of the warming, and it is not, correlation of CO2 with temperature would be a necessary condition. But of course, such correlation is nowhere near a sufficient condition to prove CO2 is the cause of the warming.

It is that strong correlation that has caused so many amateur scientists to go astray, and a few professionals, Hansen being one of them. Hansen seems to have become emotionally involved and is apparently now blind to more recent scientific findings, many of which are inconsistent with his early 1980s Hypothesis.

I have my own Hypothesis, and it is that direct, anthropomorphic and natural thermal pollution may turn out to be a not insignificant contributor to global warming. (In science, an hypothesis is a guess, not a theory. It's a starting point for further research.)
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No, the entire increase in CO2 is from man. All of it. CO2 levels largely control the temperature of the temp of the earth. This is basic climate science. You really should do some research first before spouting volumes of vacuous bullshit.

You seem to be guessing without much true understanding. I suggest looking at this excellent presentation of the causes of the warming.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
 
futurecurrents said:
No, the entire increase in CO2 is from man. All of it. CO2 levels largely control the temperature of the temp of the earth. This is basic climate science. You really should do some research first before spouting volumes of vacuous bullshit.

You seem to be guessing without much true understanding. I suggest looking at this excellent presentation of the causes of the warming.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
More...
It is the sun stupid!

CO2 Lags Temperature:

Underline and blue mine.

"Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P. (thousand years before present), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years." Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

Coherence established between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
(Nature, Volume 343, Number 6260, pp. 709-714, February 1990)
- Cynthia Kuo et al.
"Temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years. Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months."Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations
(Science, Volume 283, Number 5408, pp. 1712-1714, March 1999)
- Hubertus Fischer et al.
"High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations."Atmospheric CO2 Concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica(PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Number 5, March 2000)
- Andreas Indermuhle et al.
"The lag was calculated for which the correlation coefficient of the CO2 record and the corresponding temperatures values reached a maximum. The simulation yields a lag of (1200 ± 700) yr."Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination
(Science, Volume 291. Number 5501, January 2001)
- Eric Monnin et al.
"The start of the CO2 increase thus lagged the start of the [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years." The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka (PDF)
(Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 20, Issue 4, pp. 583-589, February 2001)
- Manfred Mudelsee
"Over the full 420 ka of the Vostok record, CO2 variations lag behind atmospheric temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere by 1.3±1.0 ka"Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III
(Science, Volume 299, Number 5613, March 2003)
- Nicolas Caillon et al.
"The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation." Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming
(Science, Volume 318, Issue 5849, September 2007)
- Lowell Stott et al.

(Science, Volume 324, Number 5934, pp. 1551-1554, June 2009)
- Bärbel Hönisch et al.
"The lack of a gradual decrease in interglacial PCO2 does not support the suggestion that a long-term drawdown of atmospheric CO2 was the main cause of the climate transition" The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature (PDF)
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 100, pp. 51–69, January 2013)
- Ole Humlum et al.
"There exist a clear phase relationship between changes of atmospheric CO2 and the different global temperature records, whether representing sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, or lower troposphere temperature, with changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2 always lagging behind corresponding changes in temperature."
 
WeToddDid2 said:
It is the sun stupid!

CO2 Lags Temperature:

Underline and blue mine.

"Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P. (thousand years before present), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years." Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

Coherence established between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
(Nature, Volume 343, Number 6260, pp. 709-714, February 1990)
- Cynthia Kuo et al.
"Temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years. Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months."Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations
(Science, Volume 283, Number 5408, pp. 1712-1714, March 1999)
- Hubertus Fischer et al.
"High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations."Atmospheric CO2 Concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica(PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Number 5, March 2000)
- Andreas Indermuhle et al.
"The lag was calculated for which the correlation coefficient of the CO2 record and the corresponding temperatures values reached a maximum. The simulation yields a lag of (1200 ± 700) yr."Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination
(Science, Volume 291. Number 5501, January 2001)
- Eric Monnin et al.
"The start of the CO2 increase thus lagged the start of the [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years." The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka (PDF)
(Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 20, Issue 4, pp. 583-589, February 2001)
- Manfred Mudelsee
"Over the full 420 ka of the Vostok record, CO2 variations lag behind atmospheric temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere by 1.3±1.0 ka"Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III
(Science, Volume 299, Number 5613, March 2003)
- Nicolas Caillon et al.
"The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation." Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming
(Science, Volume 318, Issue 5849, September 2007)
- Lowell Stott et al.

(Science, Volume 324, Number 5934, pp. 1551-1554, June 2009)
- Bärbel Hönisch et al.
"The lack of a gradual decrease in interglacial PCO2 does not support the suggestion that a long-term drawdown of atmospheric CO2 was the main cause of the climate transition" The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature (PDF)
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 100, pp. 51–69, January 2013)
- Ole Humlum et al.
"There exist a clear phase relationship between changes of atmospheric CO2 and the different global temperature records, whether representing sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, or lower troposphere temperature, with changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2 always lagging behind corresponding changes in temperature."
More...




To claim that the CO2 lag disproves the warming effect of CO2 displays a lack of understanding of the processes that drive Milankovitch cycles. A review of the peer reviewed research into past periods of deglaciation tells us several things Deglaciation is not initiated by CO2 but by orbital cycles. CO2 amplifies the warming which cannot be explained by orbital cycles alone. CO2 spreads warming throughout the planet.

Overall, more than 90% of the glacial-interglacial warming occurs after the atmospheric CO2 increase

The initial changes in temperature during this period are explained by changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun, which affects the amount of seasonal sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. In the case of warming, the lag between temperature and CO2 is explained as follows: as ocean temperatures rise, oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere. In turn, this release amplifies the warming trend, leading to yet more CO2 being released. In other words, increasing CO2 levels become both the cause and effect of further warming. This positive feedback is necessary to trigger the shifts between glacials and interglacials as the effect of orbital changes is too weak to cause such variation. Additional positive feedbacks which play an important role in this process include other greenhouse gases, and changes in ice sheet cover and vegetation patterns.
 
A natural change of 100ppm normally takes 5,000 to 20.000 years. The recent increase of 100ppm has taken just 120 years.

Additional confirmation that rising CO2 levels are due to human activity comes from examining the ratio of carbon isotopes (eg ? carbon atoms with differing numbers of neutrons) found in the atmosphere. Carbon 12 has 6 neutrons, carbon 13 has 7 neutrons. Plants have a lower C13/C12 ratio than in the atmosphere. If rising atmospheric CO2comes from fossil fuels, the C13/C12 should be falling. Indeed this is what is occurring (Ghosh 2003). The C13/C12 ratio correlates with the trend in global emissions.

co2_vs_emissions.gif

Figure 2: Annual global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture in GtC yr?1 (black), annual averages of the 13C/12C ratio measured in atmospheric CO2at Mauna Loa from 1981 to 2002 (red). ). The isotope data are expressed as ?13C(CO2) ‰ (per mil) deviation from a calibration standard. Note that this scale is inverted to improve clarity. (IPCC AR4)
 

http://notrickszone.com/2015/08/12/...-cold-from-2025-to-2050/#sthash.5uac2APi.dpbs

“We Are Now Starting To See A Dramatic Cooling In The Arctic”, Says Former NOAA Meteorologist …”Extremely Cold” From 2025 To 2050!

Here are the points he makes in the video:

1. The 18+ years temperature pause is real. (4.09)
2. Natural cycles are behind the current pause.
3. Ice cores show CO2 lags temperature. (5.00)
4. 7000 years ago there was 50% less Arctic ice. (8.20)
5. The 1000-year cycle is real. (9.20)
6. Planet has been cooling over past 10,000 years. (9.34)
7. Natural cycles are driving our climate. (10.04)
8. Shows cooling from 2023 to 2150.
9. Current warming is perfectly natural.
10. Milankovitch cycles driving large-scale cycles. (13.00)
11. Gravitational forces can bulge Earth’s core by 1.4 km (15.35)
12. Gravitational forces impact global temperature (17.20)
13. Warming and cooling both begin at the poles (17.48)
14. Arctic warming/melt was caused by warm ocean pulses (19.50)
15. “Now starting to see a dramatic cooling in the Arctic“. (22.50)
16. “Arctic is cooling rapidly now. Rapidly!” (24.06)
17. Both poles are cooling rapidly now. (25.05(
18. Poles don’t show signs of warming. (26.30)
19. Western drought and Eastern cold due to 26-year cycle. (27.55)
20. Polar vortices due to Arctic/global cooling. (29.25)
21. Lunar cycles correlated with warming/cooling cycles. (31.30)
22. Rapid global cooling by 2019. (32.00)
23. “Temperature fiddling” are “more political than anything”. (32.56)
24. “Could be the biggest scientific scandal ever”. (33.20)
25. IPCC using “estimated temperatures”. (34.00)
26. How the government manipulated, rewrote data. (36.00)
27. “This is temperature fiddling.” Not the truth. (36.45)
28. NASA, NOAA’s “politically driven press releases”. (37.00)
29. Met Office calls NOAA’s 2014 claim untrue. (38.00)
30. Major data fiddling, cheating by NOAA. (39.50)
31. “The 97% consensus is bogus”. (41.00)
32. John Cook cooked the consensus data. (41.30)
33. 85% meteorologists say climate change is natural. (42.20)
34. Global cooling is the real danger. (43.20)
35. Volcanoes and cooling often correlated. (44.00)
36. Crop failures from cooling “very likely”. (45.45)
37. “Extremely cold” from 2025 to 2050. (46.36)
38. Global cooling next 125 years. (47.00)
39. “The cooling is coming”.
 
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