Welcome to the world of ET, where someone has something negative to say about everything. I am also interested in taking a trial. I submitted for it on your website but never got a response.
The 3-2-1 Approach: A Simplified Method for Trading Any Market
- Thread starter bthomas
- Start date
Welcome to the world of ET, where someone has something negative to say about everything. I am also interested in taking a trial. I submitted for it on your website but never got a response.
When Bernanke Talks The Market Listens
And promptly tanks. So was there any warning to get short, or at least not be long going into his speech?
First off, no matter which method you trade, it is a bad idea to be in the market when the Fed Chairman is speaking. Unless you are very experienced and do some sort of bracket trade, you could easily get hurt.
That said, the attached chart will give you some clues as to how you could have handled the situation.
And promptly tanks. So was there any warning to get short, or at least not be long going into his speech?
First off, no matter which method you trade, it is a bad idea to be in the market when the Fed Chairman is speaking. Unless you are very experienced and do some sort of bracket trade, you could easily get hurt.
That said, the attached chart will give you some clues as to how you could have handled the situation.
6/4 Trading Results
Attached is Charles Cochran's commentary on ZB 6/2 trading. Trading entries are noted.
F4 Comments: The analysis favored a buy. The recommended buy was 114-21/25. 114-20 was the OVN session low. The recommended buy was raised to 115-01/05. The 08:15 ET news took the market to 114-245 before the day session opened. The software correctly signaled a buy at that level. Resistance was retested and held. The market was sideways to lower until its late break off of a Bernanke speech. Research and recommended trades were right on early in the session. Switched sides in the trading room and worked the short side of the market too.
Attached is Charles Cochran's commentary on ZB 6/2 trading. Trading entries are noted.
F4 Comments: The analysis favored a buy. The recommended buy was 114-21/25. 114-20 was the OVN session low. The recommended buy was raised to 115-01/05. The 08:15 ET news took the market to 114-245 before the day session opened. The software correctly signaled a buy at that level. Resistance was retested and held. The market was sideways to lower until its late break off of a Bernanke speech. Research and recommended trades were right on early in the session. Switched sides in the trading room and worked the short side of the market too.
6/4 Market Profile Chart and 6/5 Early Trading Recommendations
Attached is more 6/4 analysis and comments pertaining to early 6/5 trading. Keep in mind that these levels can change based on what happens in the overnight session or when a significant news event occurs.
The value here is having an idea to begin trading with on 6/5.
F2 Comments: The market did rally as per the analysis and did take a stab at 115-00+ w/a high of 115-135. Resistance held. The ES recovered and was trading higher and the Bond began to sell. It was in a pronounced âbâ pattern when Bernanke spoke. His comments were not new, but reiterated that the Fed was primarily concerned w/fighting inflation and dollar weakness. Not good news for stocks or Bonds. Both markets sold. The structure favors lower prices tomorrow. We want to sell early strength and see if 113-16/20 can be taken out. If it holds we will cover. 1st sell zone is 114-03/07. Back up sell is 114-11/15. Cover if todayâs lows not broken. OK to buy, if 113-24/28 holds OVN. Reverse, if 114-04/08 is then rejected.
Attached is more 6/4 analysis and comments pertaining to early 6/5 trading. Keep in mind that these levels can change based on what happens in the overnight session or when a significant news event occurs.
The value here is having an idea to begin trading with on 6/5.
F2 Comments: The market did rally as per the analysis and did take a stab at 115-00+ w/a high of 115-135. Resistance held. The ES recovered and was trading higher and the Bond began to sell. It was in a pronounced âbâ pattern when Bernanke spoke. His comments were not new, but reiterated that the Fed was primarily concerned w/fighting inflation and dollar weakness. Not good news for stocks or Bonds. Both markets sold. The structure favors lower prices tomorrow. We want to sell early strength and see if 113-16/20 can be taken out. If it holds we will cover. 1st sell zone is 114-03/07. Back up sell is 114-11/15. Cover if todayâs lows not broken. OK to buy, if 113-24/28 holds OVN. Reverse, if 114-04/08 is then rejected.
Early Morning Update
Please review the selling recommendation in the prior post.
Overnight, the high was 114.075. The recommended sell zone was 114.03/07. The overnight low was 113.255. Yesterday's low was 113.27. The recommendation was to buy it back if yesterday's low held.
The second recommendation said it was ok to buy at 113.24/28, but to exit if 114.04/08 holds. As previously mentioned, the OVN low was 113.255 and the market held at 114.055.
Charlie Cochran doesn't have a crystal ball. He simply knows how to read the Market Profile. You can't get much closer than this.
Please review the selling recommendation in the prior post.
Overnight, the high was 114.075. The recommended sell zone was 114.03/07. The overnight low was 113.255. Yesterday's low was 113.27. The recommendation was to buy it back if yesterday's low held.
The second recommendation said it was ok to buy at 113.24/28, but to exit if 114.04/08 holds. As previously mentioned, the OVN low was 113.255 and the market held at 114.055.
Charlie Cochran doesn't have a crystal ball. He simply knows how to read the Market Profile. You can't get much closer than this.
My apology for not getting back to you regarding the free trial sign up. My staff has enrolled over 250 free trial sign ups in the last couple of weeks. Seems like this request fell through the cracks.
Please try to enroll again at www.iiedge.com or e-mail josh@trademaven.com
Sell Em
There were plenty of sell opportunities today and they are aptly noted on this chart. But look a little deeper and see if you can pick-up on a repeating pattern.
The pattern is the pull-backs. For a pull-back to be considered a real pull-back, we generally look for 8 to 12 32nds in the ZB. Today, there were 6 instances when the market sold off than pulled-back to the 113.24 area. Those 6 pull-backs were 8, 6, 10, 13, 15 1/2, and 10 ticks respectively. The 8 to 12 32nds guideline worked reasonably well.
Another thing the astute trader saw today was the "line in the sand" of 113.24. Once penetrated early, the market pulled back to 113.24, 113.23, 113.225, 113.23, 113.24, and 113.245. Since the day's orientation was to sell, these represented high quality opportunities.
Here are Charlie Cochran's comments:
F4 Comments. Previous dayâs call was to sell 114-03/07 w/a cover, if 11324/26 held. OVN session high was 114-075 and the low was 113-265. The adjustment for the day session was to sell 114-11/15. The day session high was 114-115. Caught the edges for sure. The rest of the day was a sale. The software signaled these sales too. Have the right idea, know where you can execute and then enter the market when F3/4 screens tells you to enter. Another example of the 3-2-1 methodology.
There were plenty of sell opportunities today and they are aptly noted on this chart. But look a little deeper and see if you can pick-up on a repeating pattern.
The pattern is the pull-backs. For a pull-back to be considered a real pull-back, we generally look for 8 to 12 32nds in the ZB. Today, there were 6 instances when the market sold off than pulled-back to the 113.24 area. Those 6 pull-backs were 8, 6, 10, 13, 15 1/2, and 10 ticks respectively. The 8 to 12 32nds guideline worked reasonably well.
Another thing the astute trader saw today was the "line in the sand" of 113.24. Once penetrated early, the market pulled back to 113.24, 113.23, 113.225, 113.23, 113.24, and 113.245. Since the day's orientation was to sell, these represented high quality opportunities.
Here are Charlie Cochran's comments:
F4 Comments. Previous dayâs call was to sell 114-03/07 w/a cover, if 11324/26 held. OVN session high was 114-075 and the low was 113-265. The adjustment for the day session was to sell 114-11/15. The day session high was 114-115. Caught the edges for sure. The rest of the day was a sale. The software signaled these sales too. Have the right idea, know where you can execute and then enter the market when F3/4 screens tells you to enter. Another example of the 3-2-1 methodology.
Setting Expectations For A News Day Trade
Here is the daily ZB Market Profile chart for Thursday, June 5th. Included in the comments are guidelines for handling a news day trade.
F2 Comments: Another day of selling. The news was negative and the Bond responded accordingly. The close was weak. The market is pointed lower w/out news. Tomorrowâs news is a potential market mover. The market is looking for a NFP number from -50 to -60K and Unemployment at 5.1%. The market has been sold into these numbers and has some room for disappointment. If the number comes in less than 25K, the Bond should sell. If above 75K, I would expect buying. Best way to trade this is to play for a set back after the announcement w/an exit, if the dayâs high/low canât be taken out. A news day trade.
Here is the daily ZB Market Profile chart for Thursday, June 5th. Included in the comments are guidelines for handling a news day trade.
F2 Comments: Another day of selling. The news was negative and the Bond responded accordingly. The close was weak. The market is pointed lower w/out news. Tomorrowâs news is a potential market mover. The market is looking for a NFP number from -50 to -60K and Unemployment at 5.1%. The market has been sold into these numbers and has some room for disappointment. If the number comes in less than 25K, the Bond should sell. If above 75K, I would expect buying. Best way to trade this is to play for a set back after the announcement w/an exit, if the dayâs high/low canât be taken out. A news day trade.
Response To Trials Comment
Joab, I'll let ZAL answer for himself, but please be aware that the TMPro Software/TIE Trader Room is only one of the trials offered by TradeMaven. They have a basic trading/charting platform, similar in nature to Ninja Trader's free platform, that is offered to the public for trial also.
Since I am not a TradeMaven employee, I don't have access to those numbers, but I know the trial exists as I am working with TM to create a new web site.
I've been honest and forthright with everything I've posted on this thread, as has Doug Zalesky. I don't think it's appropriate to go jumping to conclusions before you have all the facts. And if you're not already there, please join the room for the free trial so you can see the reality of what is happening with market analysis and trading calls each day.
I welcome your informed feedback.
Joab, I'll let ZAL answer for himself, but please be aware that the TMPro Software/TIE Trader Room is only one of the trials offered by TradeMaven. They have a basic trading/charting platform, similar in nature to Ninja Trader's free platform, that is offered to the public for trial also.
Since I am not a TradeMaven employee, I don't have access to those numbers, but I know the trial exists as I am working with TM to create a new web site.
I've been honest and forthright with everything I've posted on this thread, as has Doug Zalesky. I don't think it's appropriate to go jumping to conclusions before you have all the facts. And if you're not already there, please join the room for the free trial so you can see the reality of what is happening with market analysis and trading calls each day.
I welcome your informed feedback.