The 3-2-1 Approach: A Simplified Method for Trading Any Market

Quote from Reaver:

Same here, all my calls are made in real time too. I am sure you'll trust that I wouldn't post this information until after close either for obvious reasons.

Here's another taste:

tradecalls.jpg


Remember my calls are made in real time, these are just posted after the fact to protect my clients' interests for obvious reasons. I trust you understand that.
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Reaver,
Do you have a website or a blog ? If yes would you post a link ?
Thanks,
 
Starting With An Idea

I've often stated the importance of starting off the day with a trade direction and levels in mind. These ideas may have to be modified after news announcements, but you have to start somewhere. This is how Charles Cochran sees Monday, June 2nd setting up. The times are central.

[6:48] Charles Cochran: Friday’s market set up a sale today, if the ES was sideways to higher and still might. Just have to sort out the ES’s direction. Still see resistance at 113-20/24 then 113-28/114-00. Best sell zone is against 114-08/12 at the moment. May take awhile for the market to develop. One thing that has become clear to me over time is that if the market’s next move isn’t clear, the most likely outcome is a bracket. As long as the ES is lower, the Bond should hold its OVN gains and attempt to trade higher. The news this morning is forecast to be supportive for the Bond w/Construction Spending forecast at -.6% and ISM Index at 48.0. If these numbers are as forecast, it would support my trading range prognostication. Can sell failure to take out 113-20/24. Would be more comfortable selling the 113-28/114-00 area. Aggressive sell zone is 113-19/23 w/a back up sell at 113-27/31. If 113-08/12 holds on the retest, cover and look to the long side of the market.

[6:50] Charles Cochran: ES R1-3: 1395/97, 11400/0150, 1405/07. S1-3: 1388/90, 1383/85 and 1378/80,

[6:51] Charles Cochran: ZB R1-3: 113-20/24, 113-28/114-00 and 114-08/12. S1-3: 113-08/12, 112-28/113-00 and 112-20.
 
Hi, you have not answered my question. Using Trade Maven with your training, what is your win% per trade based on equal risk vs reward?


Quote from bthomas:

Starting With An Idea

I've often stated the importance of starting off the day with a trade direction and levels in mind. These ideas may have to be modified after news announcements, but you have to start somewhere. This is how Charles Cochran sees Monday, June 2nd setting up. The times are central.

[6:48] Charles Cochran: Friday’s market set up a sale today, if the ES was sideways to higher and still might. Just have to sort out the ES’s direction. Still see resistance at 113-20/24 then 113-28/114-00. Best sell zone is against 114-08/12 at the moment. May take awhile for the market to develop. One thing that has become clear to me over time is that if the market’s next move isn’t clear, the most likely outcome is a bracket. As long as the ES is lower, the Bond should hold its OVN gains and attempt to trade higher. The news this morning is forecast to be supportive for the Bond w/Construction Spending forecast at -.6% and ISM Index at 48.0. If these numbers are as forecast, it would support my trading range prognostication. Can sell failure to take out 113-20/24. Would be more comfortable selling the 113-28/114-00 area. Aggressive sell zone is 113-19/23 w/a back up sell at 113-27/31. If 113-08/12 holds on the retest, cover and look to the long side of the market.

[6:50] Charles Cochran: ES R1-3: 1395/97, 11400/0150, 1405/07. S1-3: 1388/90, 1383/85 and 1378/80,

[6:51] Charles Cochran: ZB R1-3: 113-20/24, 113-28/114-00 and 114-08/12. S1-3: 113-08/12, 112-28/113-00 and 112-20.
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Finding proper trade location via Market Profile, volume analysis, or deceleration has little to do with "win %". Good analyis and software will keep you out of lower probability trades too.

We don't reccommend "buy" or "sell' NOW at specific prices. As I've said before: there is no black box. Students need to learn how to trade on their own using proper analysis.

If you understand Market Profile you know that a higher probability trade is to buy the low end of a 'p' formation or sell the high end of a 'b' formation. You also will know that Moves out of the Middle (MOMs) are a go with trades and are not to be faded. And yet everyday we will have staudents who take the other side of all three types of trades. For some reason they decide to fade a MOM or sell the low end of a 'b' or buy the high nd of a 'p'. Sure it's OK to take the trade however it's an extremely low probability trade.

We try to teach students how to recognize and execute high probability trades. We don't force them to make them. Traders need to learn how to recognize specific trade types and then decide "on their own' whether to take the trade or not. This is the essence of trading.

If you want a black box or a 'follow the leader' type of program then we are not the program for you.
 
Zal, no I don't understand market profile, that is why I am asking some questions.

I can understand if you don't want to use the term win%. How about if you define high probability trades. Assuming the student learns enough to take the trade in a correct manner, what is the probability (in ave %) that the trade will be successful. Also, by your teachings, on average how far away is the stop vs the profit target for this type of trade.

I understand all trading is somewhat of an art, but there should always be some science behind an edge based method.

Quote from ZAL:

Finding proper trade location via Market Profile, volume analysis, or deceleration has little to do with "win %". Good analyis and software will keep you out of lower probability trades too.

We don't reccommend "buy" or "sell' NOW at specific prices. As I've said before: there is no black box. Students need to learn how to trade on their own using proper analysis.

If you understand Market Profile you know that a higher probability trade is to buy the low end of a 'p' formation or sell the high end of a 'b' formation. You also will know that Moves out of the Middle (MOMs) are a go with trades and are not to be faded. And yet everyday we will have staudents who take the other side of all three types of trades. For some reason they decide to fade a MOM or sell the low end of a 'b' or buy the high nd of a 'p'. Sure it's OK to take the trade however it's an extremely low probability trade.

We try to teach students how to recognize and execute high probability trades. We don't force them to make them. Traders need to learn how to recognize specific trade types and then decide "on their own' whether to take the trade or not. This is the essence of trading.

If you want a black box or a 'follow the leader' type of program then we are not the program for you.
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When asked a question, the way ZAL (and bthomas for that matter) dodges, weaves and changes the subject would make you think he's next in line to be the White House Press Secretary or something.

Just an observation.
 
I don't know how to be more concise:

1. Buying the bottom of a 'p' formation is a high probability trade

2. Selling the top of a 'b' formation is a high probability trade.

3. Going with the direction of a MOM is a high probability trade.

I can't put an exact number on it because I don't have one. My experience tells me that #'s 1 and 2 are in excess of 70% and #3 is in excess of 80%.

4 full tic stop in the Bond is what I use. It is not what you have to use. Everbody is looking for an exact answer like trading is some kind of exact mathematical equation.....it is not.

I typically look to exit with a 4 tic profit. Other traders look for more OR less. I use 4 tics as my guide because 4 Bond Futures tics = 1 Basis point in the Cash Bond Market. The Bond Futures market is a derivative of the US Cash Bond Market.

You will be well served to get educated on the Profile, the concept of volume deceleration and Balance Bars. The more you learn the better you will execute.
 
Thank you that has answered my question. :-)


Quote from ZAL:

I don't know how to be more concise:

1. Buying the bottom of a 'p' formation is a high probability trade

2. Selling the top of a 'b' formation is a high probability trade.

3. Going with the direction of a MOM is a high probability trade.

I can't put an exact number on it because I don't have one. My experience tells me that #'s 1 and 2 are in excess of 70% and #3 is in excess of 80%.

4 full tic stop in the Bond is what I use. It is not what you have to use. Everbody is looking for an exact answer like trading is some kind of exact mathematical equation.....it is not.

I typically look to exit with a 4 tic profit. Other traders look for more OR less. I use 4 tics as my guide because 4 Bond Futures tics = 1 Basis point in the Cash Bond Market. The Bond Futures market is a derivative of the US Cash Bond Market.

You will be well served to get educated on the Profile, the concept of volume deceleration and Balance Bars. The more you learn the better you will execute.
More...
 
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