The 3-2-1 Approach: A Simplified Method for Trading Any Market

Trading Range Continues on Tuesday


F2 Comments: The market was a trading range, period. The close was mid-range. The profile was split. The market got stops above 122-225 setting up a possible test of near support at 121-24.

Some news for Wednesday: ADP Private Employment is expected at -643K; crude inventories. This news will be out at 0815 and behind us when the 10Y auction dynamics begin to play.

The Dealers can play the auctions from the low side or high side. Should get our answers tomorrow. Can see two sell zones, especially if the ES rallies.

Sell 122-19/23 or 122-27/31. Cover, if 122-00/04 holds. If 122-00/04 does hold, OK to get long. Exit, if 122-20/24 is then rejected.

F2PM5-05.jpg
 
Still Range Bound

F2 Comments: The market is stuck in a range awaiting its next move. The new move should emerge from the 122-12/16 area. That said, we have another auction to get through before fundamentals start to kick in.

Longer term the never ending supply of debt will drive prices lower. Think tomorrow will see the sellers and buyers as support and resistance are tested. I also think it will take a rally to get the 30Y paper off the Dealer’s shelves.

The first trade I see is a sale to retest support. If support at 122-00/04 holds, will begin to look for long trades. Sell zone is 122-11/15. Buy zone is 122-00+/-.

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Quote from bthomas:

Full Disclosure
This thread will be updated primarily by Doug Zalesky and Charles Cochran. Doug is a Managing Partner of Tradmaven Group LLC and has been a trader in the CBOT bond pit for 25 years. Charles is a partner in the Trademaven Inside Edge, the educational arm of Trademaven Group LLC and has been in the securities and futures industry for nearly 30 years. He has been a broker, analyst, CTA, Independent IB, publisher and developer of software programs. Since 1997 he has taught Market Profile classes at the CME, CBOT, and NYMEX exchanges.

Actual charts and results will be posted as they were called in the TIE Traders Room Verification will be simple. A week trial membership will be available to the room for those who request it. Just match the calls to what was posted in the room.

The reason we’re doing this is simple. We believe we can “do well by doing good.” As has been extensively reported, most futures traders fail. We believe the reason for this is that most traders don’t know how to trade like the pros. So we’re bringing in the pros to help.

The 3-2-1 methodology is pretty straight forward, but it does take time and dedication to master as you might suspect. But for those who are willing to do their homework, the prize is freedom, and the lifestyle that goes along with it.
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If your method works and since you have been in the profession so long, should not one of you (or both) be a billionaire?
 
Quote from bthomas:

Full Disclosure


As has been extensively reported, most futures traders fail. We believe the reason for this is that most traders don’t know how to trade like the pros.
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The second sentence is false, because the first sentence is true, irrespective of the skills of the participants: trading is a negative sum game. Your teaching or others teaching, all they can try to do is be better than the next guy. If tomorrow another guy can trade better than you, he can make your method a loser (not because of your methods) but because he happens to find a way to outgun you.

So in trading your success does not come from you, but it comes from the weakness of others.

Your chance of success are less than 20%, and you have no control over them. Anytime you can be out of business.
 
Non Farm Payrolls - Biggest Number of the Month

Here is Charles Cochran's early comments.

05:55)_Morning. Finanacials sold OVN and indexes rallied. Latest extimates for NFP are < 600K. Still a news day trade.

The fact that the concensus is now below 600K mitigates some of the downside, if it actually comes in this way. The lower prices have built in some room for fewer job losses. If over 650, would expect a rally. down to the month's biggest scheduled news.
 
This Update is for the 10 Year Note

F2 Comments: The market caught negative news when the NFP was well below the estimates. The initial sell off brought in buyers and these buyers took the Note to 120-21 before the buying was exhausted.

The close was strong. The market is pointed higher on Monday with some help from the ES and weekend news. If the market can rally on Monday, it is short from last week’s activity and a short covering rally could take the market back to 122-00 or higher. Sunday night activity will help clarify the picture for Monday’s opening.

I can trade from either side on Monday. I can buy early weakness and see if 120-21 can be taken out. Or sell failure to extend Friday’s range. The buy zone is 120-01/05. The sell zone is 120-19/23. Will update Monday morning.

F2PM5-08.jpg
 
Quote from riskfreetrading:

If your method works and since you have been in the profession so long, should not one of you (or both) be a billionaire?
More...
Ya think? :confused: :p

If you consider the time that he first started posting on ET, he should at least have a high six figures stash sitting around someplace. :eek: :D

***

Here's some free marketing advice. If you posted in the PnL Thread 2009 your real money trades every day instead of updating this boring thread, you'd have people clamoring to get into your room.
 
Comments for Monday, 5/11

F2 Comments: The buying that started on Friday continued in the OVN and day session. And the close was strong. The market activity analysis favors higher prices Tuesday w/out news.

If the early news is close to expectations ( Trade Deficit is expected at -292 Byn) and the ES is lower, the rally should continue.

Want to buy early weakness and see if 121-20/21 can be taken out. If 121-20/21 is rejected, I will begin to look to the short side of the market. Buy zone is 121-01/05 OB. Exit this trade, if 121-20/21 is then rejected.

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Tuesday Closing Comments

F2 Comments: The market opened a bit soft, retested support at 120-28 and rallied to hit 121-16, #3 resistance. Resistance held and the market settled into a range with buyers below 121-06 and sellers above 121-12. The close was strong. The market activity analysis favors higher prices tomorrow with some help from the news.

Wednesday’s news: Import/Export prices; Retail Sales at -1.%; ex-auto at Unch.; Business inventories at -1.1%.

Will need some help from the ES post the news. If the ES sells again, then the last reason not to buy the ZN/ZB will be taken away. Want to buy early weakness and see if 121-20/21 can be taken out. Buy zone is 121-01/05. Exit and/or reverse, if 121-20/21 is rejected.

F2PM5-12.jpg
 
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