The 2012 Crash

[SimpleTrades]

Beau, I have never liked analysing in terms of percentage. Its misleading. I remember arguing this with a portfolio manager who was showing the value of buying and holding. He was showing these big numbers first losers then winners. -25%, -35%, +60% Has your portfolio recovered full value??? NO!!

Misleading, because k% down followed by k% up does NOT return you to the same $ amount. I would agree that your analysis shows an average positive return of roughly 1.2% but ...

This shows that you should have tripled your portfolio. So, why are you down 15%?

You're right;I don't know what you're doing.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from bhardy307:

Beau, I have never liked analysing in terms of percentage. Its misleading. I remember arguing this with a portfolio manager who was showing the value of buying and holding. He was showing these big numbers first losers then winners. -25%, -35%, +60% Has your portfolio recovered full value??? NO!!

Misleading, because k% down followed by k% up does NOT return you to the same $ amount. I would agree that your analysis shows an average positive return of roughly 1.2% but ...

This shows that you should have tripled your portfolio. So, why are you down 15%?

You're right;I don't know what you're doing.

You can only see the 1x returns from that. To get 2x or 3x raise the percentages by (1 + percentage)^2 for the QID/QLD backtest, and (1 + percentage)^3 for SQQQ/TQQQ.

I've only used this particular variant for the last 3 trades.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from bwolinsky:

You can only see the 1x returns from that. To get 2x or 3x raise the percentages by (1 + percentage)^2 for the QID/QLD backtest, and (1 + percentage)^3 for SQQQ/TQQQ.

I've only used this particular variant for the last 3 trades.

Ok, so if I plug in the 3x option with the percentages you have provided, I see $100 increasing to $3579 in 102 trades (assuming profits are reinvested and compounded)

Ummm, good luck, not a snow ball's chance in hell!

 

[GrandSupercycle]

GrandSupercycle Jan 2012:
'The 2012 crash may be worse than 2008 so be careful folks'

GrandSupercycle 2011:
'Reminder that SP500 monthly chart continues to give bearish warnings and USDX monthly chart continues to give bullish warnings. This big picture outlook will not change '

 

[clark85]

Quote from GrandSupercycle:

May be worse than 2008 so be careful folks.

You truly belive that?

The only actual reason I could think of would be a failing state/banks in europe, and that is unlikely to happen at this point, but this is definately a on-going story.

What would rather disturb me is a republican wrecking the US economy again after being elected this year, but this would not be before 2013.

 

[e92335i08]

Quote from clark85:

You truly belive that?

The only actual reason I could think of would be a failing state/banks in europe, and that is unlikely to happen at this point, but this is definately a on-going story.

What would rather disturb me is a republican wrecking the US economy again after being elected this year, but this would not be before 2013.

LOL It doesn't matter whos president, the world gov'ts will have to deleverage at some point or just print a bunch of money to inflate it away. Doesn't matter if its republican or democrat that doesn't change the debt in the world unless of course the president decides to delverage which will hurt the economy.

 

[clark85]

Quote from e92335i08:

LOL It doesn't matter whos president, the world gov'ts will have to deleverage at some point or just print a bunch of money to inflate it away. Doesn't matter if its republican or democrat that doesn't change the debt in the world unless of course the president decides to delverage which will hurt the economy.

Still Republican and Democratic views on the economy and their plans to actually fix it coulnd't be further apart at this time. Thus it probably will make a diffrence who gets elected.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from bwolinsky:

... or the dreaded stop loss level at 2396 but I doubt it will get that high.

Poor Beau, gettig close, 2388 in overnight tradig. 2396 is looking all but inevitable.

 

[GrandSupercycle]

GrandSupercycle Jan 2012:
'The 2012 crash may be worse than 2008 so be careful folks'

GrandSupercycle 2011:
'Reminder that SP500 monthly chart continues to give bearish warnings and USDX monthly chart continues to give bullish warnings. This big picture outlook will not change '

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from GrandSupercycle:

May be worse than 2008 so be careful folks.

What happened to the 2011 crash you predicted?