it aint that crazy, and it certainly isn't that amateurish. Betting that everything will probably be normal is very sophisticated. Almost nobody can do it.Quote from daveyc:
crash? well, i have not a clue. maybe a decline of 10%-20% and rebound more than once and ending the year higher is my guess but this would be considered normal market conditions. looking at the charts and indicators for these clues is not usefull in my amateur opinion.
The 2012 Crash
- Thread starter GrandSupercycle
- Start date
this thread is hilarious......do you REALLY think the markets will crash during an election season?! good lord use some common sense here. The central banks will do whatever they must to keep markets propped up until they cant, and currently they still propping them up. I really feel for investors and traders who just dont understand the feds MO....
Once again, bhardy, you don't understand what my system's doing.
Being down 2% on the index is a common occurence if you have a mechanical system.
The potential profitability of the trade exceeds 5%, but if we rise another 0.1-0.2% on NDX then I will try to get out at my entry price by my reverse break even stop.
Price Physics says this is a lower high on NQ, but where that will stop we'll just have to wait for confirming price action but it will go down a little from this level and I'd prefer it to start going down Monday so we'd still have a chance at a profit, but, the way it looks now, we'll be out breakeven or the dreaded stop loss level at 2396 but I doubt it will get that high.
Sure I do; its losing money!
Quote from bhardy307:
Sure I do; its losing money!
86 of 101 trades make 0% or better. 13% of those trades are breakeven and are included in that 0%, making a probability of loss 15%, which is not statistically different from the break even probability.
Can you say unlikely to lose?
Last month's trades were high probability because all 3 of my systems said short. This month only my pairs system says to be short, and we have no signals after the first bar of 2012 in the others.
Depends on how big the 15 losers are.
Losers average 3.22% on the index, and winners average 2%.
Here's the percentages for the 1x equivalent from a 2x on QID and QLD converted to NDX returns.
Win Percentage Loss Percentage
Max7.65% -0.67%
Min-0.01% -4.30%
Average 2.03% -3.22%
Win Percentage Loss Percentage
2.03%
0.69%
5.36%
0.95%
-1.98%
0.61%
2.79%
3.21%
-0.67%
-0.01%
0.94%
1.04%
0.57%
4.47%
0.58%
0.67%
1.72%
5.00%
0.19%
-0.01%
-3.57%
2.12%
7.65%
0.89%
1.93%
0.59%
0.87%
0.13%
7.65%
1.74%
-0.01%
-0.01%
2.06%
0.85%
0.68%
0.42%
-0.01%
-3.57%
-4.30%
2.49%
-3.57%
7.65%
2.97%
3.42%
-0.01%
7.65%
0.83%
0.26%
0.44%
6.08%
1.21%
-3.57%
3.21%
1.82%
7.65%
-3.56%
1.88%
0.00%
0.00%
1.06%
5.71%
0.38%
5.10%
1.21%
-3.97%
-3.56%
0.47%
5.91%
0.74%
-1.74%
0.00%
0.65%
-3.56%
-3.56%
0.58%
0.44%
-3.56%
2.43%
0.79%
2.72%
4.41%
4.92%
1.68%
-3.56%
4.42%
1.94%
0.00%
0.58%
0.66%
1.05%
1.46%
3.41%
3.26%
0.00%
6.24%
0.53%
1.55%
0.49%
0.90%
0.89%
1.35%
-1.77%