A 10% increase in S&P 500 earnings translates to approximately $114. The S&P 500 is presently trading at approximately 1500 or 13.2 times forward earnings, based on these projections.
"""Given that 2012 actual earnings are estimated to have increased approximately 5% to around $102.50 according to Barron's and recent earnings estimates have been revised lower, the market is probably relatively suspect of these projections.
According to work conducted at NYU's Stern, the historical EPS growth rate for the S&P 500 since 1960 is less than 5%. If we use a 5% EPS growth rate for 2013, we get S&P 500 EPS $107.50. Using the historical average PE multiple of 15, that takes the S&P 500 to 1612, approximately 7.5% higher than where we are trading today.
I believe that 1612 is a reasonable base case expectation for the S&P 500 during 2013. Recognizing that expectations are seldom accurate, we use S&P 500 1612 as a starting point."""
BY BILL ROBERTSON
s&p 1612 guys listen to the MAN