Thats it...the bottom is in...next stop 1300

I would not make fun of people that are older then you. That 86 year old man might just be you one day. You can exercise, diet and do whatever you do, but one day you will be there too no matter you do. So by making such statments you are just wishing it upon yourself tempting fate.

I think we are all in agreement that the bond market is in a bubble...Jim Rogers is in agreement. Its fairly obvious to us all, but when will it break? I knew that real estate was in a bubble back in 2003, but some 4 years later it broke and lots of lost opportunity on my part in between because of my solidly held belief.

Well, if you believe in chart patterns, then you see a head and shoulders on the TLT. Its there, but no one talks about it. We all just sit in silent agreement that the bond market is in a bubble, yet we keep buying bonds. As the money flows out of the bond market, then it will flow into the indexes.

Now as for timing, I can't help you as for exact times and no one here can except maybe for a few that get lucky. I think now is the time to buy and hold the 3x etfs like the BGU (no I dont mean all in). My personal opinion is the bond market is about to collapse and the money will flow elsewhere. I posted a chart in another thread thats in the metals futures section which demonstrates that the Gold sector might be the next bubble stock.

So here is what I think to sum up:

- S&P to 1300 by August and then pullback into the elections
- bond market collapse
- suspect gold market about to go parabolic along with the gdx
- large financial institution in the United States to go down (got that from Jim Rogers;)

Now lets talk about the all-data chart of the $XAU for a second. You will notice from 1985 to the current time the chart looks like this big V or U. When you see this type of multi-year U or V pattern, then it is sometimes followed by a breakout. I remember the XLE from 1998 to 2004 which looked like a big U or V and that lead to a large breakout in oil stocks. I think it could happen again with the $XAU index or GDX etf. One of the gold stocks I frequently mention is NG.



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Why would there be a pullback into the November elections, for god's sake? Haven't you learned anything from history? I am not saying it can't happen, but it is highly unlikely. It is far more likely we will have a "pull-UP" into elections, complete with lower gas prices at the pump. Goldman Sachs will be the team leader in the pull-UP project. They can even tinker with the weighting of gasoline futures in the GSCI if needed, just as they did to help get young George re-elected. If drastic measures are needed, Timmy can resign in July to have more time to work on his tax returns and Blankfein can become Treasury Secretary to lend a helping hand. (Its happened before!, but admittedly it is getting a little late for that. :D
 
As I type this, the ES is breaking out of its consolidation, Asia is up considerably and the march to 1300 begins in the morning.

On May 21st, I had my doubts and indeed I was afraid, but that didnt stop me from doing what I had to do going long and throwing this out there. Of course, there was the usual remarks and worry about people getting crushed by my call, but those just proved to be noise.

This thread is done as I have no more charts or fundamental argument to input into it. My next prediction is for the next swing high to come in August give or take some weeks. Dont worry, I will be back then to inform you its time to sell and get short.

My timing is not exact, but I know when its time to go long and when its time to sell.

BTW, for the guy who can't seem to help himself. LVS will double from here. I am pointing my bat at the stands. Here we go!
 
Quote from piezoe:

It is far more likely we will have a "pull-UP" into elections, complete with lower gas prices at the pump.
More...
A market pull-UP cannot happen unless there is also a pull-UP in oil & gas.
 
Quote from retaildaytrader:



My timing is not exact, but I know when its time to go long and when its time to sell.

BTW, for the guy who can't seem to help himself. LVS will double from here. I am pointing my bat at the stands. Here we go!
More...

LVS down 3.5%.

This thread is another classic PortI385 call.
 
News flash! Stop trading! No need for any analysis anymore - all you have to do is "draw some lines on your screen and make a megaphone like pattern", and suddenly you can tell where ANY market is heading :D
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

LVS down 3.5%.

This thread is another classic PortI385 call.
More...

LVS down another 6.31%. S+P bottom call made at 1087....still valid?

Retaildaytrader/Port? Are you still here, mate?

This is almost my favorite all-time ET thread. Stock_trad3r's "all in" one has it beat, but only slightly.
 
Sorry...this is the summer time and I am making the most of it that I can. I might be a little older, but that doesnt mean I am on the computer 24/7 like many other retirees. Im sorry if Elitetrader is not a priority in my life. I didnt think I had to warn anyone here of my vacation...

This thread is still valid. I posted up everything that I could and have nothing new to add. I did say the $SPX would reach 1300 by August, not June or July, and sticking with it. I said August because of many factors elaborated on previously. I think we will have the typical summer rally into August and then the uncertainty of elections will bring it down...I strongly suspect there will be an event that will take place most commonly called the "October Surprise". Terrorist attacks? Hostage taking? I dunno, but I suspect someone out there will try to influence or disrupt the elections. The market will not have a favorable impression of it. On the day of the elections will be the next market inflection point to the upside...the next market inflection point to the downside will be August.

Tops and bottoms take a while to carve out and this is playing out just like I thought. In April, the top was carved out over a 3 week period so why should the bottom take a shorter time? So it might take just as long or longer for the bottom to carve out. It appears its doing just that...carving out a bottom...did you notice the double bottom the last 30 days?

I am not here to name call, make false accusations, throw insults out or trash talk and wont lower myself down to that level where the mods of this board are at. I am here to discuss what I am seeing and you can either agree or disagree. If you disagree, then post up something intelligent stating why you feel thats not the case. I dont represent myself as being right. BTW, I didnt read through any of the negative commentary posted above because I have better things to do with my time such as jog around the block, sort out my pictures from the trip and pick my nose then to read some trash talk on an internet forum.

As for LVS, I think that ones a double from here. Again, I didnt say it will double overnight, but by August. The simple logic is that the market is at a turning point now and you buy strong stocks at that turning point. LVS is not down that much and its a strong stock. You buy LVS right now. Secondly, I am an old man. I think I know a thing or two about going to a casino. LVS is where its at.

The $SPX is still right where it was at when I made the call on May 21st. So, might I ask so kindly, will you man up and apologize if I am right and your trash talking negative commentary proves to be rubbish? If I am wrong on this thread, then I will offer a retraction and man up to say that I was wrong. However, I dont see price on the ES breaking the almight flash crash lows. If and when it does, then let me offer my retraction ahead of time. I might be doing better things like picking my nose when it happens so I might not have the time to come back on here. I dont think it will though and everything that I posted here will be right.

So excuse me now, laundry awaits as I unpack from my vacation.
 
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