That “One Trade”…that changed your Life F-o-r-e-v-e-r

pak · Feb 14, 2015

Time: Dec 1983
Market: Orange juice

The Scenario: Bought Oj in August dreaming for a Freeze in Florida winter. Went to Maui Christmas week…had breakfast at Kapalua Hotel every morning. On 3rd day at breakfast, picked up complimentary Honolulu newspaper and on the Front page was a pic (like here) with the Headline “Big Freeze in Florida”.

The Trade Outcome: 5 days limit up (with expanded limits kicking in) and traded higher the next 2 weeks.

Mental Outcome: I thought I was a 23 year old Genius…at the end of January “tripled up” and reversed short (going for the down payment on that Malibu beach house)…and then proceeded to Lose ALL the Winnings riding it out for an agonizing 10 weeks (very stupid)!!!

But from that point on…”Hooked for Life!!!

”

dbphoenix · Feb 14, 2015

TFONY

Tech Analysis · Feb 14, 2015

Not exactly a success story, more like a lesson learned.

I bought TransSwitch (TXCC) when i first started trading in 2001. I saw some hack on Bloomberg talking about it like it was the next MSFT and the lady on Bloomberg was fawning over this guy's talking up the company's future earnings. She was cooing and ah-ing over the good news with such fervor I thought she was getting a hand job under the table in the studio. I figured everyone must be seeing this good news so how can you lose, right? Well I ended up buying it at the highest it traded from that day on. I lost over 10 bucks a share, 2500 total, before I gave up and sold the POS at low five and change. It taught me a valuable lesson about the amount of bullshit coming out of these front running turd analysts and their minions on CNBC etc. That was the day I became a technician and ignored everything else. I've since looked at the chart at the time I bought it and would never even had considered it anything but a raging short.

14 years later I'm still in the game.

Yukoner · Feb 14, 2015

My first electronic trade on the ES, was using a dial up modem while living in the Yukon Territory. It was in the late 90's, and there I was connected electronically to the S&P pit. Changed my life forever...

cornix · Feb 14, 2015

Danger of random gratification at it's "best". Happens often in trading.

ScottColeFTA · Feb 15, 2015

pak said:
Time: Dec 1983
Market: Orange juice

The Scenario: Bought Oj in August dreaming for a Freeze in Florida winter. Went to Maui Christmas week…had breakfast at Kapalua Hotel every morning. On 3rd day at breakfast, picked up complimentary Honolulu newspaper and on the Front page was a pic (like here) with the Headline “Big Freeze in Florida”.

The Trade Outcome: 5 days limit up (with expanded limits kicking in) and traded higher the next 2 weeks.

Mental Outcome: I thought I was a 23 year old Genius…at the end of January “tripled up” and reversed short (going for the down payment on that Malibu beach house)…and then proceeded to Lose ALL the Winnings riding it out for an agonizing 10 weeks (very stupid)!!!

But from that point on…”Hooked for Life!!!View attachment 149394 ”

Wow...your experience is eerily similar to mine. For me, it was coffee in 1994, and I was 28 at the time. I had same mentality as you, young and stupid.

Redneck · Feb 15, 2015

cornix said:
Danger of random gratification at it's "best". Happens often in trading.

Randomness…, albeit gratification…, disappointment..., or anything else trading related – only occurs if / when the trader is random - in their thinking..., actions..., and/ or expectations

Mkt is absolutely uncertain

Uncertainty is mutually exclusive of randomness with regard to the mkt

RN

cornix · Feb 15, 2015

Redneck said:
Randomness…, albeit gratification…, disappointment..., or anything else trading related – only occurs if / when the trader is random - in their thinking..., actions..., and/ or expectations

Mkt is absolutely uncertain

Uncertainty is mutually exclusive of randomness with regard to the mkt

RN

Very much agree, RN.

But the truth is: most strategies people try are not much better than random in the long run.

Redneck · Feb 16, 2015

cornix said:
Very much agree, RN.

But the truth is: most strategies people try are not much better than random in the long run.

It appears you're attempting to lay off blame onto the strategy

As opposed to the trader - who implements said system..., who maintains sole control of when, where, how..., whatever said system - is implemented

===========

Give me a so called random system...., even a so called losing random system - $5.00 bucks says I can make it consistently profitable

Only stipulation - the system must be complete (nothing left for me to interpret/ create on the fly)

Big words for a dumbass redneck - if I do say so

RN

Yukoner · Feb 16, 2015

Agree with

Redneck said:
It appears you're attempting to lay off blame onto the strategy

As opposed to the trader - who implements said system..., who maintains sole control of when, where, how..., whatever said system - is implemented

===========

Give me a so called random system...., even a so called losing random system - $5.00 bucks says I can make it consistently profitable

Only stipulation - the system must be complete (nothing left for me to interpret/ create on the fly)

Big words for a dumbass redneck - if I do say so

RN

Agree with @Redneck

I once won a public trading contest and it was based solely on my public declaration that money management was more important than trade entries.

I simply flipped a coin 30 mins after open and went long or short based on the coin outcome... After that I manged it. All trades were real time. A month later I had won... Much to the chagrin of those super system traders.