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THat hot HOusing Market....
- Thread starter topguntrader
- Start date
Originally posted by mike s
Is there a tracking stock to play the REIT's that's similar to the Q's for the naz 100? Or do you just play the stocks in a particular riet index?
Mike, IYR is a tracking stock for riets. Also I think RWR, but if you look in the Quotes section of WSJ unter etfs there are two or three.
Also you may want to look at RLF and JRS which are closed end funds that track riets.
Laundry list of things I've seen in a New England coastal type rural/retirement/tourist area are:
Cheaper building costs due to revolution in every aspect of the building industry.
Many people cashed out of stocks long ago and bought their second or retirement homes and still have plenty of $.
Aging homes and especially aging condos are big trouble brewing. This will be worse in places like here or the Caribbean.
Commercial and land loans seem to get in trouble before residential. Small business loans seem expensive and harder to get because lenders are more risk wary now.
Nationwide and internet lending is growing fast but they have big problems getting the loans closed because of local conditions.
Few people negotiate realtor commish. Only dopes pay 6% in this inflated market. This industry is begging to be broken on its rates and so is the appraisal industry which is the biggest source of delay in bank financing. Also, zoning will someday soon get its biggest reappraisal in a generation due to how it affects affordable housing, bulk housing for foreign workers, chain and strip development and that all important bullshit phrase "sense of community." Super Wal Marts everywhere have a way of making what's left of our communities look inward.
Location always is the key. 9/11 has driven a lot of folks to perceived safer areas especially younger ones with kids where there are good schools, services and hospitals. Also wonder about whether more Americans will retire on boats or maybe go expat (if terrorists get us again). They are for sure going mobile in big RVs which are hot sellers right now.
Some of the talk about people loading their homes with debt to buy lifestyle is BS. A whole pile of smart money has refied at lower rates with no cash out.
Credit quality is dropping. Not dropping, I guess, but changing. I see a lot of young people with marginal jobs and career prospects that have a house and a whole lot more of it than they can afford if things get rough.
In their dark moments people who payed big $ to be on the shore worry that they are bagholders and/or don't like it as much as they thought they would.
Been calling for a top in real estate here for 25 years. Wrong each and every year so WTFDIK.
Geo.
Cheaper building costs due to revolution in every aspect of the building industry.
Many people cashed out of stocks long ago and bought their second or retirement homes and still have plenty of $.
Aging homes and especially aging condos are big trouble brewing. This will be worse in places like here or the Caribbean.
Commercial and land loans seem to get in trouble before residential. Small business loans seem expensive and harder to get because lenders are more risk wary now.
Nationwide and internet lending is growing fast but they have big problems getting the loans closed because of local conditions.
Few people negotiate realtor commish. Only dopes pay 6% in this inflated market. This industry is begging to be broken on its rates and so is the appraisal industry which is the biggest source of delay in bank financing. Also, zoning will someday soon get its biggest reappraisal in a generation due to how it affects affordable housing, bulk housing for foreign workers, chain and strip development and that all important bullshit phrase "sense of community." Super Wal Marts everywhere have a way of making what's left of our communities look inward.
Location always is the key. 9/11 has driven a lot of folks to perceived safer areas especially younger ones with kids where there are good schools, services and hospitals. Also wonder about whether more Americans will retire on boats or maybe go expat (if terrorists get us again). They are for sure going mobile in big RVs which are hot sellers right now.
Some of the talk about people loading their homes with debt to buy lifestyle is BS. A whole pile of smart money has refied at lower rates with no cash out.
Credit quality is dropping. Not dropping, I guess, but changing. I see a lot of young people with marginal jobs and career prospects that have a house and a whole lot more of it than they can afford if things get rough.
In their dark moments people who payed big $ to be on the shore worry that they are bagholders and/or don't like it as much as they thought they would.
Been calling for a top in real estate here for 25 years. Wrong each and every year so WTFDIK.
Geo.
hahhaha heard about another sucker selling all their stock this week to invest in a second home...
CATCH 22!!!!
The economy is tanking... If we dont get a recovery soon, the weak job market will take out the real estate market..
and if economy does recover.... the trend towards higher interest rates will also slow the real estate market... We are near the top folks.... I am not saying that real estate is going to tank but if you are looking for appreciation forget about it!!
Incedently,,, alot of the economist and CNBC that missed the nasdaq crash are running out now and trying to predict a real estate bubble.... They are wrong again... The bubble is not going to burst.... Just no real appreciation...
Bottom Line::
If you need a home for your family.... Don't let the economist scare you... Take advantage of the low interest rates but don't count on your house to appreaciate your family into financial independence...
CATCH 22!!!!
The economy is tanking... If we dont get a recovery soon, the weak job market will take out the real estate market..
and if economy does recover.... the trend towards higher interest rates will also slow the real estate market... We are near the top folks.... I am not saying that real estate is going to tank but if you are looking for appreciation forget about it!!
Incedently,,, alot of the economist and CNBC that missed the nasdaq crash are running out now and trying to predict a real estate bubble.... They are wrong again... The bubble is not going to burst.... Just no real appreciation...
Bottom Line::
If you need a home for your family.... Don't let the economist scare you... Take advantage of the low interest rates but don't count on your house to appreaciate your family into financial independence...
Originally posted by mike s
Is there a tracking stock to play the REIT's that's similar to the Q's for the naz 100? Or do you just play the stocks in a particular REIT index?
Careful with shorting reits. REITS don't really correlate with the residential real estate market. To my knowledge REITS are generally in commercial property which has already fallen off a cliff.
my 2 cents
Originally posted by topguntrader
Incedently,,, alot of the economist and CNBC that missed the nasdaq crash are running out now and trying to predict a real estate bubble.... They are wrong again... The bubble is not going to burst.... Just no real appreciation...
I see this as very possible outcome, but my own view is a 20% decline and then flat for the next decade.
At any rate we both believe appreciation will be little to negative for quite a while.
Originally posted by topguntrader
[
Bottom Line::
If you need a home for your family.... Don't let the economist scare you... Take advantage of the low interest rates but don't count on your house to appreaciate your family into financial independence... [/B]
You said it right there gun. Look at it as shelter, not some investment to overpay for. Also, don't get caught up in the dream home thing. Likely, you will have many homes.
"Don't fall in love with real estate." I can't count the number of suckers I've seen with that glazed look in their eyes when they tell me about some POS house they have to have.
Geo.
Originally posted by Trader5287
You said it right there gun. Look at it as shelter, not some investment to overpay for. Also, don't get caught up in the dream home thing. Likely, you will have many homes.
Geo.
Many homes is right.
I don't remember the exact numbers but "survey sez" that most Americans sell their first home within five years.
It's just that when you're (usually/relatively) young and you look at that piece of paper that says you'll be paying $X for the next THIRTY YEARS it looks like a done deal...
Look at the Chart for PPS, I came across it last week and am now short. I noticed over the past week that many RIETS and mortgage RIETS are starting to crack. I think that you should be able to use some charts and news to find RIETS in areas that are over leveraged and may be maintaining dividends from cash as opposed to FFO.