For 35 years the combination of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after had a great track record, except for two occasions. Attributing this phenomenon to the warm holiday spirit was a no-brainer. But, publishing it in the 1987 Almanac was the kiss of death. Since then it has been up nine of the last sixteen times. However, going long into weakness Tuesday or Wednesday and staying in through the following Monday improves the record.
Iâm among the very few now waiting for an imminent reversal of the Dow and the question I have is before stocks go down, would the Thanksgiving week, in addition to last weekâs options expiration, be a likely reason for a continuation of the recent consolidation and, at the same time, a reason for an expected reversal to be delayed by an additional week?