That's perfect. You can wait a decade or 2 or 3 to wait for Tether to blow up
Tether: What part of this balance sheet do we not believe?
- Thread starter GlobalMacro90
- Start date
That's perfect. You can wait a decade or 2 or 3 to wait for Tether to blow up
Out of curiosity, can you mention any more about what you're doing? I see you have been around since 2005, so a very long track record, and since you're just running algos, I imagine you're highly successful. Are you making a killing in the traditional markets (ie. stocks or indexes?), and now just trying to also expand into crypto? I think you wrote not too long ago that you will be changing all trading to crypto? Is it really that lucrative or are your algos losing their edge in the traditional markets?
As for the tether thing, I'm actually with you 100%. What I love about bitcoin is how transparent it is because each bitcoin is mined and can be tracked, and tether absolutely reeks of manipulation from years ago since its just created into existence. But as I've concluded for myself, mostly from reading what John writes, the time to take them down has sailed. They are making a killing now on just US treasuries and have no need for risky investments. For all companies who survived the drop to 16k, it looks like nothing but up from here (MSTR also couldn't be taken down, even though we kept hearing about Saylor getting margin called). Their small position in BTC will absolutely skyrocket, and they literally have no expenses, so its all profit. Not only are they a good buyer of US treasuries, hence in the government's good books, but they also happily work with the government to freeze any addresses. As I have read, they are the programmable CBDC that the government is hungry for!
On top of this, nobody wants to reedem. The US dollars are locked away and will likely never need to be returned. And in the very, very slight chance that it fully implodes, all this does is strengthen bitcoin. If the implosion happens over a few hours, can you imagine the amount of people converting into bitcoin and lots of other coins?
The crazy thing is that all us crypto guys know that fiat is trash and US dollars should never be used for long term savings. But when it comes to tether, the benefit of having this digital US dollar far outweighs any long term depreciation. I totally understand why John is saying that its a joke to even want an audit. Tether is like the oil in your car engine. It doesn't matter how old it gets or how dirty it gets and nobody even thinks about it, but this lube is necessary to make the engine run. As long as the engine keep running, nobody gives a fuck about the oil inside. Tether is the oil for the crypto engine.
Markopolos was convinced because the strategy Madoff supposedly was running (split strike -- long stock, short call, long put) didn't add up. Markopolos's backtest of the strategy didn't match Madoff's reported returns, and the volumes in the options market were too low to support Madoff's AUM. It's much easier to understand and confirm the viability of tether's strategy.
NoahA,
fake it till you make it works when you have real product and just need time. Tether might not have anything backing most of it. Time will tell how it all plays out.
The issue with traditional markets is how they move. When was last time you see commodities move 10-20 percent in a week. Very rare. Crypto all the time.
we just ran basic backtests on crypto and results are beyond staggering. Nothing in traditional markets comes even close. Would be foolish not to trade this. We should be live trading within 3 max 6 months and I can update on results in separate thread if anyone is interested.
that is why I want Tether audit. I don’t want this market to blow up.
fake it till you make it works when you have real product and just need time. Tether might not have anything backing most of it. Time will tell how it all plays out.
The issue with traditional markets is how they move. When was last time you see commodities move 10-20 percent in a week. Very rare. Crypto all the time.
we just ran basic backtests on crypto and results are beyond staggering. Nothing in traditional markets comes even close. Would be foolish not to trade this. We should be live trading within 3 max 6 months and I can update on results in separate thread if anyone is interested.
that is why I want Tether audit. I don’t want this market to blow up.
https://ph.investing.com/news/stock... behind,valued at approximately $2.79 billion.
Yeah, Tether would never buy bitcoin with unbacked tethers and put them on their balance sheet!
Do you know why it is still so volatile? I can understand it with alts but BTC is the size of Berkshire Hathaway (7th largest stock in the world).
Given its volatility and huge drawdowns, it could blow up at some point without any help from Tether.
Do you know why it is still so volatile? I can understand it with alts but BTC is the size of Berkshire Hathaway (7th largest stock in the world).
Given its volatility and huge drawdowns, it could blow up at some point without any help from Tether.
it does not matter why, as long as it moves. Direction does not matter as well for traders.
Every very basic backtests show crazy expectancy for both up and down directions.
I think what John is saying though is that without an audit, there is no chance of it blowing up. So its almost better to wish for things staying as they are.
I am absolutely interested. I don't understand how your regular high-frequency trading firms aren't already all over this in order to drastically close the edge. I've heard many traders say that the edge in trading something like ES is incredibly small because the market is just too efficient. I also see some of the guys who do well here trading mostly just stocks because of this reason. Because many stocks can't move as much size as the ES, some firms don't focus on these markets, and hence there is more opportunity there for a retail trader in stocks.
So I would imagine that the crypto market is quite mature at this point, but if your algos are seeing incredible edge, then that's awesome!
if Tether is a fraud I would rather know now before it gets even bigger. The bigger it gets the bigger the fall out will be.
John knows about crypto more than you and I combined and in square root. He was early and enjoying his gains, and obviously anything that helps is a good thing. Tether fraud helps and it seem like a good thing. It is not as we have witnessed many times in past.
you need 10s of million to even think of HFT. we do not do HFT. We are fully automated but not HFT. Just small example, a very basic model on Solana long made over 1000Rs last year with impressive strike rate, and doing quite well this year as well
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And Tether also would never have a crooked CEO with a criminal history of fraud and other shenanigans, such as a massive fraud business that was stealing from Microsoft by selling counterfeit products.Yeah, Tether would never buy bitcoin with unbacked tethers and put them on their balance sheet!
The stupidity of people on this forum never ceases to amaze me. Tether would steal from both you, and babies given the chance. There is no honour among thieves though, when this thing goes down, there will be a repeat such as FTX henchmen pointing fingers at the boss to save their own skins. Seen this time and time again. They'll be scrambling to make plea-deals.