Tether: What part of this balance sheet do we not believe?

The timing is incredibly good for them right now. The banking collapse back in the spring was brought about because banks were holding too many bonds only yielding 0.25% and hence, if sold vs. held to maturity, would take a massive haircut. And the banks had to sell since they had so many withdrawls. I would bet Tether was in the same position, but they didn't experience the 50% outflows and needing to come up with cash. Now, any new treasuries accumulated in the past year are paying massively, and since tether doesn't pay dividends, they get to keep it all.

I bet you the banks are jealous. They also want to keep all the cash and earn interest, but not have to pay out depositors anything, and also not be worried about any withdrawls. Tether has the banks beat in this business model. Tether collects the cash and invests it. Doesn't need to pay any profit sharing, and doesn't worry about hardly any withdrawls.

Furthermore, if Tether survived bitcoin dropping to 16k and kept averaging in, they are also doing well. I don't think they were buying bitcoin when it was up at 60k, so they are probably doing much better than other people since the timing for their accumulation worked out better.

Because now that the wind is at their sails, and they survived the worst part of the storm, there will be no opportunity to see who is "swimming naked". Heck, the FED may even now be on their side since they are a large holder of USTs.

The only thing I would worry about is their ability to control individual addresses if told to by governments. But I wouldn't worry at this point about a collapse. As @johnarb points out, the need for Tether is massive around the world and only going up.

That's my analysis.

Very thoughtful, I agree with most of this. The banks are definitely jealous. Tether also helped immensely by the lack of action from congress around stablecoin regulation.

They just started buying bitcoin after the 1st quarter 2023

While shady and I have no use for it, it seems to me they are in very strong financial shape honestly
 
So many people have been calling for a Tether implosion for years, and it just never happens. The amount of scrutiny Tether has received has been incredible, so it might be the right time for the naysayers to finally throw in the towel on this topic.

There has been zero of the only 'scrutiny' that matters, i.e. trusted outside professionals coming in, examining the books, and verifying that the claimed assets are there.

Madoff was a senior Wall Street figure, on the board of NASDAQ, and investigated (in a half-assed manner) several times. Enron was a public company issuing quarterly reports. SBF had top-flight VC funds as his investors, and had his face on magazine covers. Obviously, none of that meant anything.
 
So Tether released their Q2 attestation (I know I know not an audit) and honestly its pretty insane (if to be believed)

Why do you believe any of it at all? The sheer extent and brazenness of known fraud and scams in the crypto space has already wildly exceeded anything seen in history - including Madoff who did try to stay under the radar. Tether would be notable for its sheer size, but far less surprising than e.g. FTX.
 
Why do you believe any of it at all? The sheer extent and brazenness of known fraud and scams in the crypto space has already wildly exceeded anything seen in history - including Madoff who did try to stay under the radar. Tether would be notable for its sheer size, but far less surprising than e.g. FTX.

so operating under the assumption this is all fake? Seems like a stretch
 
so operating under the assumption this is all fake? Seems like a stretch

I'm not assuming anything. I have no position and don't stand to profit either way. Nobody but insiders know the full story, but no reasonable person can ignore or deny Tether's mountain of red flags. They have never lifted a finger to dispel any of the doubts, and more red flags pop up on a regular basis. Right now there's the curious fact that the market cap of USDC, which is a far more reliable operation than Tether, has shriveled by 50% over the past year while Tether's market cap is somehow at all-time highs.

Given all this, from the standpoint of risks, you'd have to be a complete fool to willingly become a Tether counterparty (yes if you own Tethers you are a counterparty).
 
so operating under the assumption this is all fake? Seems like a stretch

they are in business for over 10 years. Not a single audit was ever released. Bloomberg proved that their commercial paper was a fake. So no, not a stretch at all.
 
So many people have been calling for a Tether implosion for years, and it just never happens.

Like Telebs says... the Turkey peeks out day after day, and assumes everything is fine. He didn't get decapitated the other previous days, so everything must be fine. And then... it's the day of Thanksgiving!

I watched people defend Terra using the same argument. It did not end well, and I was not the only one stating it would not end well. It is VERY likely the fraudsters behind Tether will be up for prison sentences one day, and some already had previously.

But, I'm sure they are all straight-and-narrow guys now, ehh? :sneaky:

The problem, is every year that goes by without the spark that sets ground-0 off, is just making the final outcome even worse down the road. Sort of like Quantitative Easing...

By the way, what did Waste Management and Enron have in common? Arthur Andersen - the most greedy auditor on Wall Street. So even when you DO get an audit report, the trustability of the auditors also has a weight.
 
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