Tether collapse journal

They said they hold 30% of their reserves in commercial paper (but plan to reduce that). Did you confuse this with them offering a 30% return to hold USDT? If not, can you please provide a source?

more like 80-90 percent in commercial paper according to themselves. They disclosed it after NY AG law suit.
 
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It gets a little complicated. I am quoting from different redditors:

"Bitfinex has an open market allowing crypto to be loaned between its users. That loan can either be used to buy more crypto, or sold to profit on a crypto going down in price. The open market allows the rate to borrow to be set based on supply and demand.

A month ago, you could borrow Tethers for a rate of 6% per year, much more supply than demand. Now, that rate is closer to 30% as more people bet on Tether following in UST's footsteps. "

Response:

"That would mean that this tweet, sadly, is not the disaster that everyone is assuming it is. The 30% isn't something that's being paid by Tether that needs to print in order to get it to you, it's just the borrow cost of the short seller."

Explanation:

"One side’s APR is another’s APY since it’s P2P, so it encourages people to lend it out instead of cashing it out. It’s not bitfinex literally offering 35% to deposit your USD, but from the depositor’s standpoint it may as well be."

Thread:

old.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/upmgsw/30_interest_if_you_dont_withdraw_your_money_from/
 
It gets a little complicated. I am quoting from different redditors:

"Bitfinex has an open market allowing crypto to be loaned between its users. That loan can either be used to buy more crypto, or sold to profit on a crypto going down in price. The open market allows the rate to borrow to be set based on supply and demand.

A month ago, you could borrow Tethers for a rate of 6% per year, much more supply than demand. Now, that rate is closer to 30% as more people bet on Tether following in UST's footsteps. "

Response:

"That would mean that this tweet, sadly, is not the disaster that everyone is assuming it is. The 30% isn't something that's being paid by Tether that needs to print in order to get it to you, it's just the borrow cost of the short seller."

Explanation:

"One side’s APR is another’s APY since it’s P2P, so it encourages people to lend it out instead of cashing it out. It’s not bitfinex literally offering 35% to deposit your USD, but from the depositor’s standpoint it may as well be."

Thread:

old.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/upmgsw/30_interest_if_you_dont_withdraw_your_money_from/

You're correct, it's too much demand and not enough supply of Tether USDT

Can't really have a bank run on Tether USDT when most of it is stored in wallets that cannot redeem for USD

I've posted this several times, but in case you're interested, you can read the whole Twitter thread

This has been going on for many years

Personally, I would not be afraid to hold a lot of Tether USDT, but it's NFA

 
you can read the whole Twitter thread

I did, observations:

1. It is a year old so what was true then, not always true now.
2. It correctly said tether never gets redeemed. But we just had 7 B redemption, so something is clearly up.
3. I don't get how can anyone trade it as pairs if not on exchanges?
4. Profile picture has laser eyes.

The tweet doesn't mention but if the loaning APR went up from 6% to 30% on Bitfinex, that means they want people to keep their tether there instead of cashing out. They are also making shorting tether expensive.
 
Those tweets from Bianco are interesting because on CNBC he is usually permabear on stocks but he seems to be bullish on ETH which seems odd to me.

His claim that the price can't come down because only 3% is tradeable is nonsense. I guess he never took Economics in college -- prices are determined by the marginal trade and if the 3% panic sell the price will collapse.

Bottom line is what happens if Tether actually collapses? Will it trigger a cascade of selling the major cryptos like BTC & ETH?
 
Those tweets from Bianco are interesting because on CNBC he is usually permabear on stocks but he seems to be bullish on ETH which seems odd to me.

His claim that the price can't come down because only 3% is tradeable is nonsense. I guess he never took Economics in college -- prices are determined by the marginal trade and if the 3% panic sell the price will collapse.

Bottom line is what happens if Tether actually collapses? Will it trigger a cascade of selling the major cryptos like BTC & ETH?

In this pdf JP Morgan analyse the impact of covid and Tether on Bitcoin, I believe it would apply to ETH as well.
If you search for the keyword "Tether" you will find text like:

upload_2022-5-16_13-46-37.png
 
That was interesting read but since BTC existed before Tether it probably won't completely collapse but yeah 50-60% is quite a potential drop.
 
That was interesting read but since BTC existed before Tether it probably won't completely collapse but yeah 50-60% is quite a potential drop.

exactly. BTC existed before USDT, but market cap was tiny. It took fake money, aka stable coins, to create 1 trillion market cap. Let’s see what the real value is without fake money
 
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