Tesla-the future

VicBee · Mar 30, 2024

SunTrader said:
Once the shine is off the golden {growth} apple it is all about current and near term growth for Wall Street.

So IMO with gross margins (gross not even net) dropping quarter by quarter since peak in March '22 the near future doesn't look so "magnificent" and is reflected in price action.

03/22 29.11%
06/22 25.00%
09/22 25.09%
12/22 23.76%
03/23 19.34%
06/23 18.19%
09/23 17.89%
12/23 17.63%
03/24 (?)%

Gross or net, Tesla's margins are significantly better than all others in the industry YoY. Keep beating a dead horse.

SunTrader · Mar 30, 2024

VicBee said:
Gross or net, Tesla's margins are significantly better than all others in the industry YoY. Keep beating a dead horse.

So is PE massively higher, but like their margins drop, drop, dropping.

Keep ignoring reality, like many other bagholders, only prolonging the evitable losses.

VicBee · Mar 30, 2024

SunTrader said:
So is PE massively higher, but like their margins drop, drop, dropping.

Keep ignoring reality, like many other bagholders, only prolonging the evitable losses.

I'll take that switching point as an acknowledgement that Tesla margins is not an valid argument of the company's health, but a strategy that negatively affects its share value for the time being.

Overnight · Mar 30, 2024

nursebee said:
Background: I'm a growth stock investor with a long term interest in TSLA, made life changing money in it, now own zero shares. I owned it early at its first $35 price, sold pre model 3 at 165, bought back in later, pyramided a lot, and have scaled out over the past year or two. I did not capture the high but the meat in the middle tasted good and was very filling.

I am now soured on the relationship but looking for potential entry in the future. Here is what I am looking for, some of which might come to be directly known, other of which might be observed in price action before being more widely known.

1. 4680 cell information seems to be limited. Production of cells without waste needed, seems to be in Texas.
2. Semi production perhaps hindered by 4680, needs to drastically improve or actually have a realistic outlook.
3. Next model grumblings (China model and Mexico model) need to get real. I think they are aiming to do quite well with this car at a lower price/profit.
4. FSD and AI improvements need to translate to uptake. Retrospective analysis shows Musk to be unrealistic or a bull shitter. Its good, maybe great, but not the end all be all.

I find it currently tough to have hope for future earnings based upon the above in the near term future.

You're a beautiful person. Well read, and apparently well-seasoned.

Except, there is one problem with your theory, Mr. Smart man. Where does the electricity come from?

Are you as smart as the Prime Minister of Britain?

You do not realize how duped you are. :-(

VicBee · Mar 30, 2024

Overnight said:
You're a beautiful person. Well read, and apparently well-seasoned.

Except, there is one problem with your theory, Mr. Smart man. Where does the electricity come from?

Are you as smart as the Prime Minister of Britain?

You do not realize how duped you are. :-(

You're a broken record... And refer you to the at least half dozen posts where you state the exact same thing and each time I remind you of how limited that statement is.
Of course, over the last 2-3 years green energy has further evolved and is taking market share from dirty energy. Maybe in 10 years time when you repeat your mantra green energy will have taken over 50% of the world's energy demand? That a positive goal to look forward to, no?

Overnight · Mar 31, 2024

VicBee said:
You're a broken record... And refer you to the at least half dozen posts where you state the exact same thing and each time I remind you of how limited that statement is.
Of course, over the last 2-3 years green energy has further evolved and is taking market share from dirty energy. Maybe in 10 years time when you repeat your mantra green energy will have taken over 50% of the world's energy demand? That a positive goal to look forward to, no?

I'll continue to be a broken record on this issue, yes sir. Because electricity doesn't grow on trees, or come from the ass of golden fairy elves...

It comes from burning of fossil fuels.

DUH!

VicBee · Mar 31, 2024

Overnight said:
I'll continue to be a broken record on this issue, yes sir. Because electricity doesn't grow on trees, or come from the ass of golden fairy elves...

It comes from burning of fossil fuels.

DUH!

No, it doesn't anymore. I suggest your read about it instead of repeating a false narrative.

SunTrader · Mar 31, 2024

VicBee said:
I'll take that switching point as an acknowledgement that Tesla margins is not an valid argument of the company's health, but a strategy that negatively affects its share value for the time being.

LOL switching point, you want to talk about anything but margins - the only thing in the end that does matter.

Well besides the stock price itself, that is a lot less than half of ATH, years after the fact.

Why hasn't price responded to all these great things that you talk of yet to come? That is what a growth stock does, price in what is ahead. And what past price action did. Did but no longer doing.

ButterflyEffect · Mar 31, 2024

Personally, I am going to wait for Mr Market to take TSLA down even further in a market wide sell off and then try to figure out how the price looks as a company.

This is certainly not the time to try to buy value. Besides for China and some of the heavy China dependent economies, everything is up right now.

I suspect with patience I will be able to get long when there are quite a few narratives floating around that the company is starting to fail completely. News media will be more than ready to pile on Musk.

$175 seems fairly priced. Not a good short but there always seems to be so much hot money in and out of this stock. I am interested in the $120-130 area in a big market sell off with hugely negative sentiment.

ph1l · Mar 31, 2024

Overnight said:
electricity doesn't grow on trees

Maybe not enough to charge a Tesla, but ...
https://www.livescience.com/5711-electricity-harvested-trees.html

Electricity Harvested From Trees
News
By Live Science Staff
published September 15, 2009
Researchers have figured out a way to plug into the power generated by trees.

Scientists have known for some time that plants can conduct electricity. In fact, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that plants can pack up to 200 millivolts of electrical power. A millivolt is one-thousandth of a volt.

"We specifically didn't want to confuse this effect with the potato effect, so we used the same metal for both electrodes," said Babak Parviz, a professor of electrical engineering at Washington University and co-author of the study.

After spending the summer surveying trees, the researchers discovered that big leaf maple trees generated a steady voltage of up to a few hundred millivolts. Powering a circuit, however, required a much higher voltage.

To extract electricity from trees and convert it into useful energy, researchers built a boost converter capable of picking up as little as a 20 millivolt output and storing it to produce a greater output. By hooking it up to a tree using electrodes, the custom-built device was able to generate an output voltage of 1.1 volts, enough to run low-power sensors.

The study will be published in an upcoming issue of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' Transactions on Nanotechnology.

"Normal electronics are not going to run on the types of voltages and currents that we get out of a tree." Parviz said. "As new generations of technology come online, I think it's warranted to look back at what's doable or what's not doable in terms of a power source."