Tesla: let's think about what is going to happen after the presentation

felixbocharov

felixbocharov

So, folks, tomorrow is going to a historic day for Tesla. Model 3 will be shown to the world.

My outlook and basic facts:
  • Model 3 is going to be a great great car. I have no doubt in it, the company really makes gorgeous automobiles - no one can deny it.
  • They will not deliver it in time, I think it's also obvious. Even the Tesla fans say that most likely they will deliver it only at the beginning of 2018.
  • The company is burning cash with the speed of light and soon they will need to borrow more, very probably from the market.
  • Market capitalization - the Achilles' heel of the company. They worth 50% of the BMW's value. This is just insane.
For me, it's pretty clear - their company is just another industry disruptor. There were millions of such examples in history. They come, they disrupt, they go away. My question is why if it so obvious people are still buying this stock?
 
Model 3 promises to be really good, strong and most importantly affordable. This will be an item of mass consumption, and delivery of the first cars will begin in 2017. I think it's worth the wait. As for the stock, I agree with OptionGuru, it really shows the dynamics of growth during the last months.
 
Probably 30K+ people will sign up for the 3 in hours, if it is 1K down. Car won't be delivered in mass until 2018. They will issue 2 B debt in a few weeks.

The 3 will cost 35K only as barebone, with any real gadgets, it will be 50K.

In a few years the stock will be below $50 where it belongs and some other company (Google?)will buy them for pennies and Tesla will exist as a niche carmaker making less than 200K cars a year.
 
felixbocharov said:
For me, it's pretty clear - their company is just another industry disruptor. There were millions of such examples in history. They come, they disrupt, they go away. My question is why if it so obvious people are still buying this stock?
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For how many years did people say that about Amazon, every time it needed recapitalisation?

(Ok, so it's not a perfect analogy at all: there probably isn't one.)
 
OptionGuru said:
Glamour stock?

TSLA sure has made a huge comeback during the last 2 months - I have never seen anything like it before.


:)
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But when actually the market was under pressure, the stock lost almost 50%, it means that most of the bulls really understand the true value of the stock.
 
Jamie J. said:
Model 3 promises to be really good, strong and most importantly affordable. This will be an item of mass consumption, and delivery of the first cars will begin in 2017. I think it's worth the wait. As for the stock, I agree with OptionGuru, it really shows the dynamics of growth during the last months.
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Imagine you met the guy, and he seems to be awesome! He wears the most expensive suits, also, he has Rolex on his hand, he drives Mercedes - probably you might expect that this guy is very rich. But OMG you accidentally saw his bank statement, and it says that he has $2 million dollars in debt, and he earns only $50k. a year.
This is basically Tesla.
 
Pekelo said:
Probably 30K+ people will sign up for the 3 in hours, if it is 1K down. Car won't be delivered in mass until 2018. They will issue 2 B debt in a few weeks.

The 3 will cost 35K only as barebone, with any real gadgets, it will be 50K.

In a few years the stock will be below $50 where it belongs and some other company (Google?)will buy them for pennies and Tesla will exist as a niche carmaker making less than 200K cars a year.
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That's the truth my friend, that's the truth!
 
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