I'm all about open discussion. Why wouldn't you have said "Vz... why do you think HOG is such a great short"? Wouldn't that be more intellectual, appropriate, and better for the entire community here?
Ok, I will clarify some points / rules for you and "for the entire community", take it or leave it, progress or regress :
1 don't short strength, don't buy weakness. follow the trend.
When you try to guess a top or a bottom, this is a loser game. Yes, sometimes you will be right, but for 1 win, 10 losses.
For example, trying to buy Valeant making new lows like your friend syzward or trying to short HOG making new highs is a bad idea. A joke for good traders because we know the rules and live at the expense of wannabe traders.
2 understand price action and/or technical analysis
Prices don't go nowhere. There ain't no random walk. There is a logic behind all these movements.
For example, HOG got a clear resistance @61.50 dollars (former high). Of course probas are high HOG to retest it for the coming days. Non-sense to short it in the middle of nowhere.
3 no emotions
Market and stocks are not people. HOG is not a "bitch" like you want to name it, and don't care if you, mister vanzandt, thinks it should go lower. Ultimatly, stocks will go where they will have to. In the meantime, you and your mind/psychology decide to win or lose.
Emotions = no control = lose.
4 timing and patience
Even if you master the former rules, there is a big difference between making some money and making a killing. The difference is timing. As the cheetah waiting for his prey, a trader must avoid losing his energy, trying to chase every small movement. This is all about preparation. This is why I use "levels" to pull the trigger. For Tesla, I wrote I will pull the trigger below 249. Finally, after a new high lower @$287 (historical top @ $291 in sep'14), stock plummed below 249 two month later, and yes it was a good level and a good timing to short.
To illustrate all these rules, what about Tesla today? You revived this old thread.
Is Tesla a buy or a sell @ $193 ? What is the plan ?
Big picture. Tesla is in a bear market : new highs lower, new lows lower.
Of course, March/ April rebound was impressive. Bulls refused to capitulate, they were close to the poorhouse! To resume, in term of psychology, lots of hope and illusion.
Again a new warning last month, and rebound
@178 dollars was a relief.
But now?
We know 140 dollars was an intermediate low, and the next low is $110.
The plan is : if Tesla doesn't retest former high @
$197 and on the contrary falls below
$184 (this week's low) : red flag. Be ready.
Close below
178 : short. Target :
110/140.
What if Tesla holds above 184 ? IMO, no interest to go long. At best around 220 dollars, but with high risk.
CM
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