Tesla : BEAR in my opinion, what is the bullish case?

Chris Mac

Chris Mac

When I look at Tesla charts, I can see only one direction : SOUTH.
USD150, 125... Maybe USD100 in one year?!
Could someone explain how to be bullish @USD200?
 
Logically, a company with negative net income competing against historically low oil prices will have a hard time in this market.

On the flip side, Increasing oil prices coupled with some positive news about tsla could send this nice bearish pattern in tsla into a short squeeze. Logic rarely prevails in the stock market
 
People don't buy Teslas to save money on gas any more than people buy Apple products to go online or make phone calls. There're much cheaper ways to accomplish both. It's not about the money to everybody. That's the flaw in your logic.
 
My brother shorted TSLA four weeks ago at $220. I suggested that he might place his stop at $260 and cover half at $180 and the balance at $130. In other words, risk $40 to make $70. Purely based on technicals. I hinted at him to consider selling some SPY puts or maybe buy calls ( about half the notional value of the TSLA short ) as a partial hedge and target $130 if he was going to lose sleep over it but he didn't bite on that one.

I would agree that the Tesla is more a bespoke item than an economic or environmentally conscious choice, but from a relative value standpoint I would think that TSLA will be weaker than SPY in the near term. Just my WAG.
 
People buy Teslas to look cool, sophisticated, standout, and tell others that they are environmentally conscious. Besides the house, your car is the 2nd item you own that conveys your wealth and social status. A lot of people don't want to drive the "me too" car brands out there: Benz, Beamers, Lexus.
 

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trade2win said:
im bullish on tesla , still long from $26 ( oct 12 )
More...

The original short was strictly my brother's idea; I was just offering suggestions to his query about position management. My mind is strictly built to think in terms of relative value and spread relationships - directional bets on singular flat price instruments are not my forte.
 
The Tesla Model S with the P85D package is just the shit. Love it. And Rolls-Royce just had their best year ever in 2014.
 
I think you could certainly make the case that from a relative value standpoint, TSLA is indeed weakening against very high ( > 96 % ) positive statistical 2-year on-the-run correlators like Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight Technology ETF.

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