Tesla 2024

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/2...d-in-other-ways-like-amazons-big-aws-jackpot/

Tesla Car Computers Could Be Monetized In Other Ways — Like Amazon’s Big AWS Jackpot
‌Zachary Shahan

There was one part of Tesla’s shareholder conference call yesterday that caught my attention more than any other. That was partly because of the potential being discussed, and partly because it’s the first time I’ve heard Elon Musk and team discuss the topic.

First of all, you’ve got this question to kick things off: “Given the pursuit of Tesla really as the leader in AI for the physical world, and your comments around distributed inference, can you talk about what the approach is unlocking beyond what’s happening in the vehicle right now?

There was a long pause until Elon Musk asked Ashok Elluswamy if he wanted to say something. He postulated that with robotaxi capability, Tesla cars would be on the road about 50 hours a week, and Musk chimed in that he had essentially the same guess — about a third of the hours in the week. Elluswamy then proceeded to say that there are other uses the computers and intelligence in Tesla cars could be tapped for.

“You can do a lot of other workloads. Even right now we are seeing [can’t understand what he said] companies have these like batch workloads where they set up a bunch of documents and those are run through pretty large neural networks — take a lot of compute to channel through those workloads,” Elluswamy said. “Now that we have already paid for this compute in these cars, it might be wise to use them and not let them be idle — be like buying a lot of expensive machinery and letting them be idle. […] We want to use the compute as much as possible.”
At this point, I was thinking about AWS (Amazon Web Services). I read something years ago that most people think Amazon become a hugely profitable company with an enormous market cap because of its online store, but it was actually AWS where Amazon hit the jackpot. AWS is what brought in the huge profits and made Amazon the juggernaut it is today. Incidentally, that’s exactly the thing Elon Musk referenced in the next line.

“I think it’s analogous to Amazon Web Services, where, you know, people didn’t expect that AWS would be the most valuable part of Amazon when it started out as a bookstore. That was on nobody’s radar. But they found that they had excess compute because the compute needs would spike to extreme levels for brief periods of the year, and then they had idle compute for the rest of the year, so then what should they do with all that excess compute for the rest of the year? The answer was to monetize it and charge others to use that compute. Now, much of the internet is using the AWS backbone.
So, back to Tesla. “It seems like kind of a no-brainer to say ‘okay, if we’ve got millions and then tens of millions of vehicles out there where the computers are idle most of the time that we may as well have them do something useful.”

It’s a pretty fascinating topic. They add that if they get to where they expect to get with the on-road Tesla fleet, it could have the largest unusable compute sitting there able to be used for other purposes.

Frankly, as wild as it seems, the first thing that came to mind was the AWS comparison, and it’s quite easy to see Tesla developing some creative ways of using that “distributed access to power and distributed cooling” that is financially beneficial to both owners and Tesla. A few of the Tesla execs started to nerd out about the possibilities at that point of the conference call, signaling how excited they are about this. When you think about the AWS example, you have to think this could actually be a financial jackpot for Tesla years down the road. Watch this space.
 
Frankly, as wild as it seems, the first thing that came to mind was the AWS comparison, and it’s quite easy to see Tesla developing some creative ways of using that “distributed access to power and distributed cooling” that is financially beneficial to both owners and Tesla. A few of the Tesla execs started to nerd out about the possibilities at that point of the conference call, signaling how excited they are about this. When you think about the AWS example, you have to think this could actually be a financial jackpot for Tesla years down the road. Watch this space.
My god, the level of delusion is off the charts. You do know that servers go down all the time, and there is a team that will go in and swap out the bad server for a good one. When your Tesla goes down because the chips are fried, how are you gonna get to work?

But since the Tesla fanboys love to use their imagination on max, I think we also need to consider how awesome it would be if Tesla reported zero car sales in one quarter. This will free up all the engineers to focus on other projects. Tesla will be able to get rid of the most expensive parts of their business, you know, making cars and all the factories and sourcing parts and materials. They will also now be able to claim to be even green. Shit, if cobalt and lithium mining is a dirty business, and you no loner need batteries, that will make Tesla an even greener company. They can just licence all their IP and FSD and have so little overhead that it will all just be profit!!! Jesus Christ, this is why declining car sales in the most recent quarter has been so positive. We just need to get to zero deliveries and Tesla stock will go to the moon!
 
My god, the level of delusion is off the charts. You do know that servers go down all the time, and there is a team that will go in and swap out the bad server for a good one. When your Tesla goes down because the chips are fried, how are you gonna get to work?

But since the Tesla fanboys love to use their imagination on max, I think we also need to consider how awesome it would be if Tesla reported zero car sales in one quarter. This will free up all the engineers to focus on other projects. Tesla will be able to get rid of the most expensive parts of their business, you know, making cars and all the factories and sourcing parts and materials. They will also now be able to claim to be even green. Shit, if cobalt and lithium mining is a dirty business, and you no loner need batteries, that will make Tesla an even greener company. They can just licence all their IP and FSD and have so little overhead that it will all just be profit!!! Jesus Christ, this is why declining car sales in the most recent quarter has been so positive. We just need to get to zero deliveries and Tesla stock will go to the moon!
Does that mean you're a Tesla bull?:D
 
"I read something years ago that most people think Amazon become a hugely profitable company with an enormous market cap because of its online store, but it was actually AWS where Amazon hit the jackpot."

Guy is a genius.

" ... most people ..." who are clueless. Which includes most sell-side Wall Street analysts who just go by what the company tells them.

Amazon likely still doesn't make money on e-commerce.
 
I'm not sure Waymo, Cruise or Zoox are competition to Tesla's FSD anymore than MB's level 3 self driving solution. They operate in sandboxes, using limited maps and numerous systems to ensure the car behaves as expected. Most often they succeed within those parameters and that's what they have to show for.
Tesla's solution is different, relying on cameras, AI and massive compute to operate like humans do. Today's v 12.3.4 can take you to work and back home without ever having to hold the steering wheel (although it's required) regardless of the weather, time of day, road work, etc. That's because FSD has memorized every aspects of your commute. Today's FSD can also take you anywhere you want to and requires minimal intervention. However, sometimes it does and it's the reason it's called FSD (Supervised).

I encourage you to watch this random video from YT (I haven't watched it):

 
You want real data? There you go:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/revenue

You like to switch points every time you're faced with facts that don't suit your narrative.
For years it was Tesla couldn't possibly compete with other US auto manufacturers.
Then it was profit margins wouldn't beat other car manufacturers.
Then it was Tesla isn't a traditional car manufacturer so it must be measured against tech.

You clearly can no longer FUD Tesla against other car makers on any conceivable metrics; that ship has sailed.
So you're going after revenue and margins. But revenues are growing (and Energy is growing as%) and margins are still among the highest in the industry (albeit lower than past).
And if you want to see the effects of patents, vertical integration and diversification, you're gonna have to wait.


Revenue is growing? Wut. Down 2B YoY and 4B from last Q.
 
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